Bitcoin’s oscillation does not change the bearish trend, HYPE repeatedly tests the critical support line |特邀分析
- Core Viewpoint: This week's market validated the forecast of an oversold rebound and HYPE meeting resistance at $72.97. BTC has entered a short-term central oscillation pattern, with the rebound height being crucial; HYPE's upward structure has been damaged, with the rebound height determining the subsequent direction. The medium-term strategy shifts to bearish, while the short-term focus is on testing long positions at support levels and short positions at resistance levels.
- Key Elements:
- Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a "declining central" structure. The market is likely to enter an oscillation and consolidation pattern with central extension. In the short term, watch for resistance at $64,700 and support at $61,500.
- Bitcoin's 4-hour rebound is in a three-wave pattern. The current wave (46-47) shows a bearish divergence signal. If the pullback stabilizes near "endpoint 46," a rebound to the $65,700~$67,300 area is expected.
- The medium-term strategy for Bitcoin is bearish, with positions currently kept at 20%. If a top signal appears after a rebound to the $65,700~$67,300 area, positions can be increased to within 50%. A/B/C three-set trading plans are established for the short term.
- HYPE completed a seven-wave upward structure from $58.5 to $72.97 on the 4-hour timeframe. The current adjustment wave (61-62) has broken below the previous low, damaging the upward structure, with a maximum decline of 9.39%.
- HYPE short-term operation: If the rebound fails to break through $72.97, establish short positions on rallies (position ≤ 30%); if it breaks through, maintain no position, as it approaches the strong resistance zone of the historical high at $76.94.
- Trading risk control emphasizes dynamic stop-loss: Set a stop-loss upon opening a position; once profit reaches 1%, move the stop-loss to the cost line; thereafter, for every 1% increase in profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% successively to lock in profits.
In last week's report, based on the daily-level trend structure of Bitcoin, we explicitly put forward the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the rebound height will determine the subsequent market direction." At the same time, we issued a warning for HYPE, stating that "the probability of adjustment near endpoint 61 (USD 72.97) is significant." This week's market trajectory has further validated the effectiveness of the above analysis framework: Bitcoin completed a multi-stage rebound as expected and touched key resistance levels, while HYPE encountered resistance and retreated as scheduled near USD 72.97, with a maximum decline of 9.39%.
Based on this, this week's report will provide a detailed breakdown of the BTC and HYPE market evolution paths and specific trading strategies, incorporating the latest 4-hour and daily-level trend structures, as well as signals from our proprietary quantitative models.
Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:
• Multi-cycle trend structure analysis of BTC (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC price forecast and mid/short-term trading strategies for this week (detailed in Part 2)
• Hourly-level trend structure analysis of HYPE (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE price forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week (detailed in Part 4)
Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:
• Market Validation of BTC Forecast: Last week's article explicitly stated that Bitcoin has entered the daily-level oversold rebound phase, emphasizing that the height of this rebound will determine the subsequent market direction. The current market trajectory is developing in the direction we predicted.
• Market Validation of HYPE Forecast: Last week's article indicated that the probability of HYPE undergoing an adjustment near "endpoint 61" (USD 72.97) is significant. Currently, the market trend is highly consistent with our judgment.
1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Trend Structure from the Previous Cycle
1.1 Analysis of Bitcoin's Daily-level Trend Structure (Based on market analysis after May 6)
Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart
Figure 1
①, As shown in Figure 1: Since the adjustment that began at the high of USD 82,850 on May 6, the daily chart has exhibited a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).
②, Since hitting a low of USD 57,820 on July 1, the market is currently running the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the USD 64,500 resistance level. In the previous weekly review, we explicitly pointed out: If this rebound first breaks the USD 64,500 resistance, and then further breaks the USD 65,700 resistance (optimal), then when the (3-4) rebound segment concludes and pulls back, the probability of finding support and stabilizing above the low of USD 57,820 is significantly increased. This means a subsequent stabilization and rebound is likely.
③, At the daily level, through the overlap of three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the price has preliminarily formed a "descending consolidation zone" (as shown in the chart). Based on the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter a "consolidation extension" phase, meaning the "consolidation zone" will be formed by five or even more overlapping segments. This indicates the short-term market will enter a sideways consolidation pattern.
2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly-level Trend Structure (using the 4-hour timeframe)
Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 2
①, On the 4-hour chart, the rebound starting from the low of USD 57,820 on July 1 clearly shows a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), (46-47).
②, According to the analysis of the current trend structure, the price is operating within the (46-47) rebound segment. At the time of creating the local high "endpoint 47," our proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a clear bearish divergence signal, and the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of a technical adjustment at the hourly level here is extremely high. If the price pulls back as expected, focus on the support strength near "endpoint 46." If a stabilization signal emerges at this level, another rebound is likely to follow, with the primary upside target pointing to USD 65,700. If the rebound momentum is strong, the next significant target would be USD 67,300.
2. Bitcoin's Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week (07.13～07.19)
2.1 BTC Price Trend Forecast for This Week:
Core View for This Week: Focus on price action near the key resistance level of USD 64,700. If an adjustment occurs as expected, closely observe the effectiveness of support when the price pulls back to the vicinity of USD 61,500. A stabilization signal at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.
2.2 Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: USD 64,700 area (previous consolidation upper boundary)
• Second Resistance Zone: Vicinity of USD 65,700～67,300 (previous significant resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: USD 69,500～71,000 area (previous significant resistance area)
2.3 Key Support Levels:
• First Support Zone: USD 60,950～62,000 area (previous significant support level)
• Second Support Level: Vicinity of USD 57,820 (previous significant support level)
• Third Support Level: Vicinity of USD 55,000 (previous significant support level)
2.4 Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding sudden news impacts):
①, Medium-term Strategy: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bearish-dominant pattern.
• Maintain the current medium-term short position at around 20% for now.
• If the price rebounds to the USD 65,700～67,300 area and shows signs of stalling, combined with a top signal from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.
②, Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set a stop-loss, and look for "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute / 60-minute timeframe).
③, To dynamically respond to complex market evolution in short-term trading, we have prepared three specific action plans (A/B/C) in advance.
• Plan A: Tentatively go long if support holds in the USD 60,950～62,000 area.
• Entry: If the price adjusts from around USD 64,700 and shows a stabilization signal upon falling to the USD 60,950～62,000 area, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, aggressive investors can establish a long position of about 15%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to a significant resistance area and shows signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
• Plan B: Tentatively short in a strong resistance zone.
• Entry: If the price rebounds to the USD 65,700～67,300 area and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of about 30%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price adjusts to a significant support area and shows signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
• Plan C: Lightly go long near a strong support zone.
• Entry: The price rebounds above USD 65,700 and then pulls back due to resistance. If, during the adjustment, a stabilization signal appears above the previous low of USD 57,820, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of about 30%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to a significant resistance area and shows signals from the model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
3. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly-level Trend Structure
HYPE 4-Hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 4
1. As shown in Figure 4, from the low of USD 58.5 on June 25 (endpoint 54) to the high of USD 72.97 on July 7 (endpoint 61), the HYPE trend on the 4-hour timeframe can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure. Among these, three segments (55-56, 56-57, 57-58) overlap, forming an "upward consolidation zone."
2. In the previous weekly review, it was noted: Since a complete seven-segment upward structure has run from "endpoint 54 to endpoint 61," and top warning signals have been triggered at "endpoint 59" and "endpoint 61" respectively, be cautious of short-term adjustment risks. As expected, the market encountered resistance and adjusted around USD 72.97 last week. During the (61-62) adjustment segment, the maximum drawdown was approximately 9.39%.
3. According to the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently running in the (61-62) adjustment segment. The current "endpoint 62" has broken below the previous low "endpoint 60" (USD 68.16), which has preliminarily disrupted the upward structure since "endpoint 54."
4. HYPE's Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week
4.1 HYPE Price Trend Forecast for This Week:
①, Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Level: USD 68～69.5 area
• Second Resistance Level: Near USD 72.97
• Third Resistance Level: Near USD 76.94
②, Key Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near USD 65.5
• Second Support Zone: USD 60.5～61.5 area
Core View on HYPE This Week: Focus on the termination point of the current adjustment "endpoint 62," and whether the subsequent rebound can break through the USD 72.97 resistance.
4.2 HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week:
Short-term Strategy for This Week:
Strategy 1: If, after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, the price rebounds and breaks through the USD 72.97 resistance, as it is already approaching the strong resistance area near the all-time high of USD 76.94, it is recommended to remain in cash and observe.
Strategy 2: Conversely, if, after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, the price rebounds but fails to reach USD 72.97, it is recommended to establish short positions on rebounds. Strictly set stop-losses for operations, and keep the position size within 30%.
5. Special Reminder:
- When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
- When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
- When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the position that locks in a 1% profit.
- Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in the price, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.
Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analysis models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve solely as personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading basis. Market risk exists, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this.
