Bitcoin Monthly Correction Structure Confirmed, HYPE Presents Entry Opportunity | Guest Analysis

Last week, we clearly stated in our weekly report that $60,000 was a relay node in this correction, not the bottom—a judgment directly validated by the market on June 5th, when the price broke below this level, touching a low of $59,100. Since then, the monthly-level a-b-c three-wave corrective structure, which began from the high of $126,200 in October 2025, has been fully established. The market is currently running in the C-wave decline phase, with the cumulative adjustment time still under 35 days, indicating the structure is far from complete.

This week, we will focus on tracking the rebound height and resistance performance: the two major resistance zones of $65,000 and $69,500 ~ $70,500 will be the core observation windows for judging the subsequent trend.

Regarding HYPE, the top signal warned about last week has also been validated. The price has retreated a maximum of 27% from $75.87, and this week enters the short-term layout stage in the support zone. Strategically, the medium-term bias remains bearish, waiting for a window to add positions after a rebound reaches resistance.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• Analysis of BTC's multi-cycle trend structure (detailed in Part 1)

• BTC's price forecast for this week and medium & short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 2)

• Analysis of HYPE's hourly trend structure (detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE's price forecast for this week and short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• BTC Trend Forecast Market Validation: In last week's article, we pointed out that Bitcoin would maintain a pattern of volatile decline after a weak rebound, with the short-term strategy focusing on "selling on rallies." Current market trends have validated our previous forecast.

• HYPE Trend Forecast Market Validation: In last week's article, we pointed out that HYPE faces multiple resistances near the $75.87 level, making a short-term top highly probable there. Current market trends are highly consistent with our forecast.

1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Multi-Cycle Trend Structure

Analysis of BTC's Daily-Level Trend Structure: (Based on the market since the February 6, 2026 low)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line chart:

Figure 1

1. Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin's Market Structure Based on Elliott Wave Theory: (A re-examination of key turning points since the October 2025 high adjustment)

As shown in (Figure 1), since hitting an all-time high of approximately $126,200 in October 2025, the Bitcoin market entered a phase of deep correction. In early February 2026, the price touched a low of $60,000 on February 6th, subsequently starting a rebound that lasted about 90 days. During this period, the market engaged in intense debate over whether "$60,000 is the endpoint of this correction or a relay low." Our analysis consistently leaned towards the latter, identifying it as a cyclical low rather than the final bottom. The rally starting from the February 6th low was considered a rebound within a larger corrective structure, not a trend reversal, and we expected the subsequent correction to break below the $60,000 level.

The following is a review of the evolution based on the technical analysis framework:

①. Initial Classification (Mid-February): Corrective Rebound within C-wave (i.e., C-2 Rebound Wave)

In the weekly analysis on February 16th, we clearly stated that the rally initiated from the February 6th low was, in nature, a "C-2 wave" oversold rebound within the larger "C-wave" correction. Subsequently, a "C-3 wave" corrective move was expected, making a break below $60,000 highly probable.

②. Mid-Cycle Correction (Late April): Reclassification of Wave Structure

In the weekly analysis on April 20th, we suggested that as the rebound extended in both time and space, by April 19th, the rally had lasted approximately 73 days, far exceeding the 54-day duration of the "B wave" rebound. Therefore, we redefined this rally as a larger-degree "D wave rebound," anticipating a subsequent "E wave" correction that would very likely break below the $60,000 support.

③. Later Upgrade (Mid-May): Re-evaluation of Correction Degree

In the weekly analysis on May 18th, we emphasized again that by May 17th, the rebound had been running for about 100 days, a time span approaching the cycle from the $126,200 high to the $60,000 low (approximately 122 days). This led us to judge that the entire corrective structure had a high probability of upgrading to a monthly-level correction. Consequently, we redefined the wave structure.

④. Summary: The entire analysis process is a dynamic tracking of market structure evolution. During this period, we consistently viewed the $60,000 level as a critical relay point within the larger corrective process, not the ultimate bottom of this bear cycle. As of now, with the price breaking below the key $60,000 support on June 5th, touching a low near $59,100, the overall market trend has validated our previous judgment regarding the price breaking below this level.

2. Wave Classification of BTC Based on Monthly-Level Trend Structure

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line chart:

Figure 2

①. Bitcoin's monthly chart shows: From January 1, 2017, to the present (only this complete dataset is shown), the structure can be subdivided into a 4-segment pattern;

• Segment 0-1 (Upward Cycle): From $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting approximately 59 months (about 1774 days).

• Segment 1-2 (Corrective Cycle): From $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), lasting approximately 13 months (about 376 days). The maximum drawdown during this period was ~77.57%.

• Segment 2-3 (Upward Cycle): From $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), lasting approximately 35 months (1050 days). This wave reached a new all-time high, with a maximum gain of ~715.46%.

• Segment 3-4 (Corrective Cycle): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to the present, has been running for about 8 months (approximately 243 days), with a maximum drawdown of 53.17% during the period.

②. As shown in (Figure 2), the correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 (i.e., segment 3-4) can be preliminarily identified as a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave corrective structure, with the market currently in the C-wave decline phase.

• a-wave (Declining Wave): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting about 4 months (approximately 122 days), with a maximum drawdown of ~52.5%.

• b-wave (Rebound Wave): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to $82,850 (2026-05-06), lasting 3 months (about 90 days), with a maximum gain of ~38.1%.

• c-wave (Declining Wave): From $82,850 (2026-05-06) to the present, has been running for 33 days. During this period, the price broke below the $60,000 support on June 5th, reaching a low near $59,100. This breakdown confirmed the establishment of the c-wave (declining wave).

In-depth Analysis of BTC's Hourly-Level Trend Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)

Bitcoin _ 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 3

①. As shown in (Figure 3), the correction since the May 6th high of $82,850 can be subdivided into a 10-segment corrective structure on the 4-hour chart. It contains two descending consolidation zones: Consolidation D and Consolidation E. The overall structure is clear, presenting a typical complex corrective pattern.

②. From the perspective of the 4-hour trend structure, the market is currently running the 36-37 segment rebound. The first upside resistance is near the $65,000 level; the major resistance lies in the $69,500 ~ $70,500 zone.

2. Current Trading Judgment for Bitcoin

1. BTC Trend Forecast for This Week:

Core views for this week:

• Focus on the outcome of the test by both bulls and bears of the resistance zones near $65,000 and $69,500 ~ $70,500.

• Also focus on the support effect when the price retraces to the $59,000 ~ $60,000 zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: Near $65,000 (Previous key low)

• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 ~ $70,500 area (Previous high-volume trading zone)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $59,000 ~ $60,000 area (Previous key support)

• Second Support Zone: Near $55,000 (Previous key support)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding any unexpected news impact)

①. Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line chart: (Position monitoring model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 4), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a technical shift to a bearish dominant pattern. Last week, the market experienced an unresisting unilateral sharp decline, with a lack of rebound momentum intraday. As this market condition does not meet our established principles for medium-term trend-following position entry, we maintain a medium-term cash position on the sidelines.

If a technical rebound occurs this week, short positions can be gradually built according to the following three-tiered strategy:

• Weak Rebound Sell-off: If the price shows signs of stalling near $65,000 during a rebound, an initial 20% medium-term short position can be established.

• Add Position at Strong Resistance: If the price rebounds further into the $69,500 ~ $70,500 zone and shows clear signs of resistance, the medium-term short position can be increased to 60%.

• Breakdown Follow-Short: If the price fails to rebound near $65,000 and pulls back, effectively breaking below the $59,000 ~ $60,000 support zone, additional short positions can be added to reach 60%.

②. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss levels, and seek "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-min / 60-min charts as operation cycles).

③. For short-term operations, to dynamically adapt to complex market evolution, we have prepared two specific operation plans (A/B) in advance.

• Plan A: Rebound meets resistance, sell on rallies.

• Entry: If the price shows signs of stalling near $65,000 during a rebound, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a 15% short position.

• Risk Management: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Add position at strong resistance zone.

• Add Position: If the price rebounds further to near $69,500 ~ $70,500 and shows signs of stalling, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, increase the short position to 30%.

• Risk Management: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

• Plan C: Effectively break below support, follow-short.

• Entry: If the price fails to rebound near $65,000 and pulls back, effectively breaking below the $59,000 ~ $60,000 support zone, combined with a model top signal, increase the short position to 30%.

• Risk Management: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price declines to a key support level and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

3. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly-Level Trend Structure:

HYPE_4 Hour K-line chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in (Figure 5), on the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE's rise from the May 14th low of $38.14 to the June 2nd high of $75.87 has clearly formed a seven-segment structure containing an "upward consolidation zone."

2. As warned in last week's review: the "Endpoint 47" position showed bearish divergence in momentum, superimposed with a top warning signal from the "spread trading model," creating a resonance. Therefore, the probability of forming a short-term top here was high. The market has confirmed this judgment: the price adjusted from "Endpoint 47" ($75.87) to "Endpoint 48" ($55.47), a maximum decline of 26.89%.

3. Currently, HYPE's price has stabilized and rebounded in the $55 support zone, and is in the 48-49 rebound process. Its upside resistance lies in the $62.5 to $64.57 area. If the price meets resistance here and pulls back, it will continue to search for a stronger support level further down.

4. HYPE's Price Forecast for This Week and Short-Term Trading Strategy: (06.08 ~ 06.14)

1. HYPE Trend Forecast for This Week:

①. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance: $62.5 - $64.57 area;

• Second Resistance: $68 - $70 area;

②. Key Support Levels:

• First Support: $55 - $57 area;

• Second Support: $47 - $49 area;

Core views for HYPE this week:

• Observe the price's test results of resistance and support levels.

2. Short-term Trading Strategy for HYPE This Week: (Long on support)

This week, HYPE short-term trading should follow the strategy of "positioning for a pullback, avoiding chasing rallies."

Short-term Strategy: Try going long when the price stabilizes in the support zone.

When HYPE's price retests the key support zone of $55-$57 or the deeper $47-$49 area, and shows signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, consider entering a small long position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to the discipline of stop-loss.

5. Special Reminder:

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to a 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% synchronously to dynamically protect and lock in gains.

Financial markets are highly volatile and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All viewpoints, analysis models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this content.