每周編輯精選 Weekly Editor's Picks（0711-0717）
- 核心觀點：本週市場焦點在於宏觀政策、科技公司估值波動及加密貨幣市場與股市的翹翹板效應。川普的政策試圖將美股與美國國運深度綁定，而韓國股市的暴跌則促使資金回流加密市場，同時AI和半導體行業面臨盈利驗證與結構性風險。
- 關鍵要素：
- 川普透過政府入股、開設投資帳戶等方式，將美國國債焦慮轉化為「美國增長」信仰，改變傳統化債方式。
- 韓國股市單日暴跌逾8%，監管層考慮提高保證金、限制漲停板等措施，但散戶資金已大量回流加密市場。
- SK海力士ADR溢價達50%，源於美國市場需求旺盛但初始供應有限，套利管道無法短期平衡價格。
- SpaceX股價跌破135美元發行價，面臨技術挑戰和禁售期壓力，BIT融券服務提供做空工具。
- 貝萊德指出AI行情比網路泡沫更克制，但風險在於盈利增長能否兌現，避免泡沫破裂。
- American Bitcoin持有8000枚BTC，但反向股票分割能否拯救股價取決於流動性和後續融資不稀釋股份。
- 韓國股市暴跌期間，約41億美元資金回流加密市場，驗證了「股市與幣圈翹翹板」交易邏輯。
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of information to retrieve these valuable pieces, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and spark inspiration.
Macro Landscape
The Stock Market is the Nation's Fate: Trump is Transforming the US into a Fund
Over the past 18 months, the president, a former real estate developer, has done three things that seem unrelated on the surface: direct government equity investment in businesses, opening investment accounts for newborns, and securing equity in AI companies. However, they all point towards the same goal: deeply binding the fate of the US stock market with that of the nation.
Traditional solutions to ease US debt anxiety typically involve three approaches: raising taxes, cutting spending, and inflating away the debt – essentially using price increases to dilute the real value of debt. Trump's solution, however, involves first using the powers the government holds – subsidies, grants, government contracts, export controls, and regulatory authority – as cost and bargaining chips to secure low-priced shares in major corporations.
The US sovereign wealth fund's structure hasn't been "fabricated under a pretext," but "the bullets are still flying." The US government has effectively acquired shares in at least 20 companies for free. OpenAI has even voluntarily offered $42.6 billion in shares. This is because AI companies have a structural, not just a temporary, dependence on national-level infrastructure. A government shareholder isn't a cost; it's the ultimate backer.
The Trump Account will significantly cultivate a generation's faith in "American growth."
KOSPI plunged over 8% in a single day this Monday, triggering its seventh circuit breaker of the year. The market has pointed fingers directly at single-stock leveraged ETFs. These products amplify the daily price movements of individual stocks, accelerating price deviations during periods of high volatility and creating a magnifying effect that "boosts gains when rising and exacerbates losses when falling."
The regulator's language has escalated, with the rare use of the word "regret." Three paths could be pursued simultaneously: raising margin requirements, implementing price limit restrictions, and adjusting the upper limit for leverage ratios. However, these might just be temporary fixes rather than addressing the structural root causes of market volatility.
Wolves of Wall Street, Stop Charging into 2x, 3x SK Hynix
The risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs are emerging, causing concern for the South Korean government.
Retail Exodus? South Korean Stocks Plunge 9%, $4.1 Billion Flows Back into Crypto Market
The nearly week-long plunge in the South Korean stock market is driving retail funds towards the crypto market. The seesaw effect between the South Korean stock market and the crypto space is becoming a continuously validated trading logic.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Why is SK Hynix's US ADR Premium Reaching 50%? A Stress Test of Market Structure
Strong US market demand collides with the limited initial supply of SK HYN shares, and arbitrage channels can't immediately create enough new securities or short exposure to maintain price parity between the two markets. In other words, SK Hynix's fundamentals create demand, but the structure of the ADR market dictates how far the price can deviate from the Seoul market in the short term.
SpaceX Drops Below $135 IPO Price: Is the Bottom Here?
$135 is merely the underwriter's price, not the market's intrinsic value floor. SpaceX is currently facing challenges to its technological position and trust concerns sparked by launch failures. In terms of share structure, the 5% free float and the August lock-up expiration are swords hanging overhead.
The BIT securities lending function, enabling short selling of an equivalent number of SpaceX shares, provides a hedging tool for long holders.
Related reading: "Stock Price Drops Below IPO, First Post-IPO Flight Stumbles: What's Next for SpaceX?"
The stock decline is a combination of "sell the news" events and cyclical panic, with no change in fundamentals.
Also recommended: "Justin Sun Bullish on the Nuclear Energy Sector, Quietly Kicking Off an IPO Wave", "In Conversation with Robinhood's Founder: The Will of Retail Investors Trumps All 'Smart Money'".
Web3 & AI
AI is not a bubble, but only if profit growth can be realized.
Prediction Markets
Western markets have integrated prediction markets into the formal financial system, whereas Asia's limited participation is leading to capital outflows, loss of information sovereignty, and a lack of user protection. Asia's current task is not to block these markets, but to consider how to responsibly utilize this data within a formal framework. Avoiding the discussion effectively cedes leadership to foreign entities.
CeFi & DeFi
8,000 BTC Struggles to Support Stock Price: Can a Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?
American Bitcoin's core differentiating advantage lies in its ability to mine at scale and hoard coins at a low cost. The core pressure point is whether this model can sustain accumulation without issuing new shares, thus avoiding dilution of existing shareholders.
The upcoming tests include: first, whether the stock's trading volume and liquidity can stabilize; second, whether the company will release detailed documents explaining the custody and holding method for the 8,000 Bitcoins; and third, whether subsequent financing moves can increase per-share Bitcoin holdings, rather than simply buying assets with newly issued funds.
Staking ETH to Earn a Secure $46 Million: Why is BitMine Still Suffering Massive Losses?
Losses of $92.1 million from derivatives options completely offset staking gains. Combined with rising asset management costs and the company's aggressive share issuance, the profit margin for existing shareholders has been significantly compressed.
Bitcoin & Ecosystem
Support Below 1%: Is BIP-110 Still Pushing Bitcoin Towards a Soft Fork?
Ethereum & Scaling
The Success of Robinhood Chain Proves Ethereum is Not Dead
Multi-Chain & Cross-Chain
Revenue Surpassing Pump.fun for 5 Consecutive Days: The 'Lone Wolf' Developer Behind NOXA's Rise
NOXA Exits, Who Will Claim the Crown of Token Launches on Robinhood Chain?
Weekly Hot Topic Catch-Up
Policy & Macro Markets
Iran claims the US has entered a formal state of war;
US CFTC Chairman supports the CLARITY Act: Legislation is necessary;
US CFTC investigates Trump staff for allegedly using insider information from teleprompters to trade in prediction events;
Opinions & Voices
The Big Short: Is a "Lehman Moment" Approaching? (Ed Zitron's Long Article) OpenAI is Bound to Collapse, global stock markets face a potential liquidation, now is the perfect time to bottom-fish in Hong Kong stocks;
David Sacks responds to China's AI model Kimi K3 topping coding benchmarks: US regulatory burdens may be weakening competitiveness;
Serenity: Institutions are repricing humanoid robotics businesses, overall production capacity of Chinese manufacturers could reach 100,000 units by year-end;
JPMorgan: Tencent remains the highest quality compound growth stock in Chinese internet, reiterates "Overweight" rating;
Coinbase Stock has dropped 30% this year, Wall Street believes it's nearing its bottom;
Bitwise: RWA and prediction markets hit new highs, crypto is forming a bottom;
a16z: Traditional finance doesn't want DeFi, it only wants blockchain as the underlying infrastructure;
Institutions, Major Corporations & Leading Projects
DeepSeek advances IPO preparations, plans to file as early as year-end;
Coinbase opens registration for Chinese users (Interpretation);
Uniswap initiates governance proposal to activate protocol fees and burn UNI on Robinhood Chain;
Base abandons social direction, founder admits strategic failure (Interpretation);
Data
Actual cost of US-Iran conflict allegedly reaches hundreds of billions of dollars;
On Hyperliquid, ChangXin Memory Technologies' pre-market valuation reaches $540 billion, surpassing Tencent;
Over 6,000 employees receive shares; ChangXin Memory Technologies IPO set to create mass wealth; ChangXin Memory Technologies online offering final lottery rate is approximately 0.4714%; Profit potential per "lot" for ChangXin Memory Technologies is estimated between 3,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan;
SpaceX stock drops below IPO price of $135 for the first time;
SK Hynix stock continues to rally, up 22%, hitting an all-time high;
Exchange stablecoin reserves rise to $93 billion, with Binance accounting for 57%;
10 days after launch, Robinhood Chain total transactions exceed 38.72 million...
Attached is the portal for the Weekly Editor's Pick series. See you next time~
