BTC跌破6萬美元生死線：預測市場為何集體看空下半年幣圈

Overview

Bitcoin fell below the psychological threshold of $60,000 again in June 2026, dipping to around $59,100 during intraday trading, marking its lowest level since the end of 2024. This is not an isolated incident—throughout June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding $4 billion. Combined with traders on prediction markets like Polymarket slashing the probability of "BTC hitting $150,000 within the year" to less than 1%, market sentiment is undergoing a systemic repricing. This article will deconstruct the chain reaction of breaking through this critical level, specific data on institutional capital outflows, and the signals for the second half of the year released by prediction markets, helping you understand the real driving forces behind this current correction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin broke below $60,000 on June 24, trading in a range of roughly $59,100 to $60,200, representing a decline of over 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows, with cumulative outflows reaching $4.4 billion, the most significant capital exodus since the ETFs were approved in early 2024.

The probability of "BTC hitting $150,000 within the year" on Polymarket has plummeted to less than 1% (for the June 30 window) and around 5% (for the December 31 window), while the probability of "BTC ending the year below $100,000" once reached as high as 61%.

The derivatives market simultaneously saw a wave of liquidations, with single-day liquidation volumes ranging from over $1 billion to $3 billion, the vast majority being forced liquidations of long positions.

The $60,000 level has transformed from a previous support zone into a potential resistance area due to over $1.2 billion in put option open interest on the derivatives market at that strike price.

Why Did Bitcoin Break Below $60,000 Again?

This decline wasn't triggered by a single event but resulted from multiple pressures compounding simultaneously. According to a CoinDesk report, Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot pointed out that over the past year, a large amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, had built positions concentrated in the $60,000 to $67,000 range. When the price broke below this range, the unrealized losses for these buyers began to widen. The opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, relative to the surge in AI stocks and other assets, became increasingly high, creating the impetus for panic selling.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg analysis indicates this sell-off was accompanied by heightened concerns over the sustainability of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) financing mechanisms and a general shift in retail trader attention and capital—a large number of individual investors are turning their focus to AI-related stocks instead of crypto assets. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel also noted in a report that selling activity from long-term holders (those holding for more than six months) is increasing, typically seen as a classic signal of late-cycle capital capitulation.

The macro perspective is also significant. According to IG market analysis, sharp corrections in the AI and semiconductor sectors, delays in the advancement of the U.S. CLARITY Act, and early selling signals from long-term holders collectively acted as triggers for this decline.

June ETF Net Outflow Data: Institutional Capital is Exiting En Masse

If retail panic is the surface symptom, then institutional capital exodus is the core driving force of this correction. According to NFT Plazas citing SoSoValue data, as of early June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This is the longest streak of capital outflows since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs for trading in 2024.

The significance of this number lies in the fact that ETFs have been the core pillar supporting the institutional demand narrative for Bitcoin over the past two years. According to a CNBC report, the net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk sharply from $107.8 billion on May 14 to $80.4 billion. This scale of capital outflow means the core buying power that previously supported price increases is systematically weakening. Notably, this consecutive outflow record was eventually broken on a trading day in June, turning into a net inflow of about $3 million for that single day. However, this was widely interpreted by the market as a technical breather rather than a signal of a trend reversal.

Why Are Polymarket Prediction Markets Bearish in Unison?

Pricing in prediction markets often reflects the true market sentiment backed by "real money" bets better than traditional analyst reports. According to a Bitcoin.com News report, Polymarket's annual Bitcoin price market, with a trading volume of up to $45 million, shows traders give Bitcoin a 64% probability of either reaching or falling below $50,000 before the end of 2026. Meanwhile, a market on the Kalshi platform, with a trading volume exceeding $10 million, gives Bitcoin only a 14% probability of returning to $100,000 by January 2027.

More emblematic is the probability change in the market for "BTC hitting $150,000 this year." According to real-time data from the Polymarket page, the probability for the June 30 window has dropped to less than 1%. Even when considering the year-end window of December 31, the probability barely hovers around 5%. In contrast, earlier this year, analysts from institutions like Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein broadly predicted Bitcoin would reach $150,000 in 2026. As previously reported by CoinMarketCap, this probability was still around 21% in early January, but has now narrowed significantly.

Regarding the more pessimistic proposition of "BTC ending the year below $100,000," The Block previously reported its probability once reached as high as 61%, reflecting deepening caution and even pessimism among traders about market trends in the second half of the year. Behind this collective bearishness lie concerns about the ebbing of institutional buying and the pricing of uncertainty regarding new market dynamics after the breakdown of the traditional four-year cycle pattern.

After Breaking Below $60,000, Where is the Next Strong Support Level?

Technically, the significance of the $60,000 level is not just psychological; it also has tangible structural impacts on the derivatives market. According to IG's analysis, data from the Deribit derivatives exchange shows that open interest for put options at the $60,000 strike price exceeds $1.2 billion. Market makers hedging these positions often need to sell spot or futures when the price approaches this strike price, and this "gamma hedging" behavior can itself accelerate the decline.

Looking downward, multiple analysis reports provide relatively consistent expectations for support levels. One view suggests that the $55,000 level (corresponding to the February 2026 low and a historical volume cluster) is the first key support. If this level is lost, the market could accelerate towards testing the $50,000 to $52,000 range, which converges multiple technical indicators such as miner production costs and long-term holder cost basis. According to other on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant, the area around $53,600 is also seen as a statistically significant potential support level, factoring in on-chain metrics like historical price behavior and the realized price of short-term holders.

It is crucial to emphasize that these support levels are reference ranges calculated based on historical data and on-chain indicators, not deterministic predictions—the high volatility of the crypto market means actual movements can still significantly deviate from any single model's forecast.

The Chain Reaction of Liquidations in the Derivatives Market

This decline was accompanied by a sizable deleveraging event. According to IG's statistics, single-day liquidations on June 24 reached approximately $994 million, with about $780 million coming from forced long position liquidations. Earlier in June, multiple reports indicated single-day liquidation volumes temporarily exceeded between $1 billion and $3 billion, partly due to cascading stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling triggered when the price broke key technical levels like $65,000.

The formation mechanism of this liquidation wave exhibits typical negative feedback characteristics: price declines trigger leveraged long position liquidations; the forced selling further depresses the price, which in turn triggers a new round of liquidations at lower levels. Michael Saylor, the high-profile founder of Strategy, has also publicly warned that the existence of leveraged longs not yet fully flushed out of the system implies that a break below $60,000 could rapidly deteriorate collateral metrics and trigger a new wave of automated cascading liquidations.

In such a high-volatility environment, both spot and futures traders need more sophisticated risk management tools to cope with potential violent swings. If you aim to seize structural opportunities amid the volatility, MEXC offers a comprehensive trading system covering both spot and futures, along with real-time liquidation data and funding rate monitoring tools, to help traders better assess the progress of market deleveraging.

Divergence in Market Sentiment and Institutional Views

It is worth noting that not all market participants hold a pessimistic view. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, stated in a CNBC interview that this is the fifth time Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average, and the previous four instances proved to be excellent buying opportunities. Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Syz Group, attributed the recent decline to selling pressure from Strategy and a capital "suction effect" as "hot money" flows towards AI stocks and South Korean memory chip stocks.

Meanwhile, the 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and traditional tech indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has fallen sharply from near-perfect positive correlation levels seen a month ago. This indicates the market is reassessing the two coexisting narrative frameworks for Bitcoin—"digital gold" versus "high-beta tech stock"—with the tension between them becoming increasingly apparent.

Exclusive Perspective from MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

We believe the current correction below $60,000 is fundamentally the result of a resonance between two forces: the "repricing cycle" of institutional capital and the "structural shift" in retail attention, rather than being purely panic-driven selling. The 13-day consecutive net outflow from ETFs does not reflect a market negation of Bitcoin's long-term value, but rather a short-term redistribution of risk-on capital between the AI narrative and the crypto narrative. This type of capital rotation has occurred historically during every thematic shift between technology sectors and typically has a cyclical nature.

From the pricing logic of prediction markets, the data points—"Probability of hitting $150,000 drops to 1%" and "61% probability of ending below $100,000"—seem extremely bearish. However, they should be understood as traders rationally pricing in short-term path uncertainty, rather than a fundamental rejection of Bitcoin's medium-to-long-term narrative. Historically, similar extreme bearish consensus often appears near cyclical bottom zones, not necessarily at the true start of a downtrend—but this is by no means a sufficient reason for "buying the dip." Whether the deleveraging process is complete and whether ETF fund flows stabilize remain the two core variables requiring the most persistent monitoring in the second half of the year. We advise traders in the current environment to focus primarily on marginal changes in three indicators—funding rates, open interest, and spot ETF net flows—rather than relying solely on price action for decision-making.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main reasons for Bitcoin falling below $60,000?

It is primarily caused by four factors working together: weakened institutional buying power due to sustained net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, linked selling of risk assets triggered by corrections in the AI and semiconductor sectors, forced liquidation of highly leveraged long positions at key technical levels, and early profit-taking signs from long-term holders.

Why are prediction markets so bearish on Bitcoin?

The pricing on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflects the market consensus formed by real capital bets, not just a single analyst's view. Current data indicates that traders generally see a very low probability of returning near all-time highs in the short term and are more inclined to bet on continued price pressure within the year, which corroborates the reality of ETF capital outflows and tightening macroeconomic liquidity conditions.

After losing $60,000, where is the next key support level?

Multiple technical analysis reports identify the $55,000 level and the $50,000 to $52,000 range as potential support zones. Some on-chain data models also point to the area around $53,600 as having statistically significant support characteristics. However, these are reference ranges, not definitive conclusions.

How should ordinary investors react now?

It is advisable to avoid using excessive leverage in a high-volatility environment, closely monitor leading indicators like ETF fund flows, liquidation data, and funding rates, and plan positions rationally based on individual risk tolerance, rather than chasing highs or selling into lows.

Is the probability data from prediction markets reliable?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of participants through real money trading. Historically, their accuracy has been relatively high for the month leading up to an event. However, they are fundamentally probability pricing based on current information and will continuously adjust dynamically as new information emerges. They do not constitute a deterministic guarantee of the future.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and risky. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The price levels, probability data, and market forecasts mentioned in this article are based on publicly available information as of the time of writing and may become invalid due to market changes. Readers should conduct their own independent assessment based on their financial situation before making any investment decisions and may consult with a professional financial advisor.