揭秘Citrini背后「投研之神」：Substack常年霸榜第一，一篇报告让美股蒸发数千亿

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

In this bull market of US stocks, besides the "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity, who is active in public opinion as an individual, another independent investment research institution named Citrini has also attracted much attention—it has been ranked No. 1 in the Substack finance category for years, with nearly 250,000 subscribers.

In February this year, Citrini’s report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" once triggered a "selloff wave in US software stocks," exacerbating the panic psychology of the Silicon Valley unemployment crisis. In April, Citrini analyst Analyst#3 personally visited the area and wrote the "Strait of Hormuz Investigation Report," which sparked strong reactions, using first-hand experience to peel back layers of fog surrounding the true nature of this conflict zone. Recently, Citrini semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately predicted the importance of the copper foil industry in AI and the semiconductor sector, driving a new wave of investment enthusiasm.

Behind this investment research institution stands a founder without a formal finance background: James van Geelen. Holding a dual degree in Biology and Psychology from UCLA, he has worked as an emergency medical technician and founded a medical company. He entered the investment circle via a non-traditional path and is now hailed as the "God of Investment Research." In this issue, Odaily Planet Daily will unveil James's cross-industry legend.

Citrini Founder: Master of Narrative Under "Second-Order Thinking"

When mentioning Citrini, people in the crypto circle may have first noticed this investment research account due to a post he made in May this year, just before Cerebras (CBRS) went public. The post mentioned that "fund managers are conducting price discovery in advance on (Hyperliquid ecosystem's) Trade.xyz." This tweet was subsequently retweeted and confirmed by Trade.xyz founder Shokun.

Citrini: The "Traditional Finance Circle Whistleblower" for Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz

It is no exaggeration to say that as an investment research account that once published the popular report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," Citrini's radiating influence on the traditional finance circle is evident.

Its high praise for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz's pre-market pricing of US stocks has also brought RWA platforms, US stock pre-market contract platforms, and US stock on-chain trading platforms in the crypto market into the spotlight for more people, fueling the "US stock RWA asset craze" this year to a certain extent.

In a sense, Citrini serves as a bellwether sending "warning signals" to the traditional finance circle—it uses accurate information to warn traditional financial markets that the previously inconspicuous crypto players are now eyeing the "big cake" of traditional financial markets like barbarians.

And behind Citrini is a founder who believes in "second-order thinking" and "long-termism"—James van Geelen.

Multiple Labels: Dual Degree in Bio-Psychology, Medical Emergency Practitioner, "AI Panic Whistleblower"

At 33 years old, James van Geelen (hereinafter referred to as Geelen) probably never imagined that an "AI discussion hot post" could cause a rapid evaporation of hundreds of billions of dollars in the US stock market. Even earlier, his career history had nothing to do with AI.

Public information shows that Geelen graduated from the prestigious UCLA, earning dual degrees in Biology and Psychology. During his time there, he also worked as an emergency medical technician and paramedic in downtown Los Angeles. Coming from a top university and having experience as a medical emergency practitioner, this background shaped his character of pursuing efficiency and being good at planning. As he himself said, "If you don't have a plan, you're going to have a bad time." Additionally, he considers himself a "musical genius," even though he hasn't produced any notable works.

According to Geelen's original plan, he was supposed to become a doctor saving lives. However, by a twist of fate, he instead embarked on an entrepreneurial path: first founding a healthcare company and selling it to a private equity fund, thus successfully breaking out of the "elite school-employee-professional manager" cycle. He then founded Citrini.

Another noteworthy point, as mentioned by him in the 2023 Odd Lots podcast, is that he also co-founded one of the earliest medical marijuana dispensaries in Connecticut. From this perspective, he is far from the stereotypical "straight-laced doctor" who follows rules rigidly.

In 2018, with some startup capital, Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital, catching early opportunities in fields like AI (e.g., Nvidia) and GLP-1 weight loss drugs (e.g., Ozempic/Wegovy).

In 2023, Geelen officially founded Citrini Research, dedicated to "cross-asset, multi-dimensional thinking for investment analysis," providing in-depth reports on thematic stock investments and global macro trading. It quickly grew into a top creator in the finance category on the Substack platform. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: It has two modes, individual subscription and institutional subscription.)

On May 31, 2023, the model investment portfolio Citrindex, built on personal research, was officially launched with an annual subscription fee of $1,250. According to statistics, this portfolio has achieved a cumulative return of over 200%, with monthly gains often outperforming the S&P 500.

In March 2024, he boldly predicted that Trump would win the election. In July 2025, amid the turmoil surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's ouster, he boldly advised over 50,000 subscribers to "buy two-year US Treasuries and short ten-year US Treasuries" to hedge against policy risks.

In December 2025, according to PitchBook information, Citrini completed a seed funding round of approximately $5.05 million. With only about 10 employees, the company remains privately held.

Then, fast forward to February this year. He co-authored with Alap Shah, who comes from a traditional finance background, the market-shaking report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis." Although he repeatedly emphasized that the report was merely a "thought experiment" and scenario hypothesis rather than a predictive analysis, the phenomena it mentioned—such as "mass white-collar unemployment, declining consumer spending, economic contraction (Ghost GDP)"—still triggered panic and concern in the capital market, leading to a sharp decline in delivery, payment, and software stocks. Notably, IBM's stock price on February 23 recorded its largest single-day drop since 2025; American Express and Blackstone Group both fell over 8%, the entire software stock sector declined nearly 5%, and companies like DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One, and Apollo Global Management Inc. saw their stock prices drop by as much as 3%. Multiple US stock sectors were swept up in the selloff, with the Dow Jones Index falling over 800 points at one point. Alap Shah later publicly stated his investment stance as "bearish long," meaning shorting companies they believe will be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor tech stocks benefiting from AI.

It is no exaggeration to say that Citrini's report caused the US stock market to lose hundreds of billions of dollars overnight, leading to a "bloodbath" on Wall Street. This triggered follow-up reports from overseas media such as Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

On April 6 this year, Citrini's "Analyst #3" (codename Analyst#3) personally visited the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the US-Iran conflict, for research. They disclosed many little-known firsthand observations, revealing on the ground the specific operational model of Iran's "toll booth" set up in the strait, and presented a series of counterintuitive conclusions, such as: Regardless of how the situation develops, shipping volume through the strait will gradually increase; Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. First, shipping volume through the strait will continue to increase. Second, the diplomatic "toll booth," surprisingly, the transit order in the strait is actually very standardized. Third, contradictory escalation, even if ground operations commence, shipping volume through the strait might still increase. Fourth, restructuring of the landscape, not a win-lose confrontation. This conflict is not a simple "two-sided fight" but a multi-party game. Geographical disputes amidst great power games are also a key topic within Citrini's "scope of research."

When asked why the company was named "citrinitas," Geelen replied: "The name was inspired by financial tycoon Soros's book 'The Alchemy of Finance.' It's actually a stage in alchemy, but most people don't know that during this transitional phase, lead begins to transform into gold but hasn't completely turned into gold yet." This is also his favorite moment of "making a difference"—seeing the birth of "gold" before others notice the changes in lead.

Investment Style: Second-Order Thinking, Narrative-Driven, Reverse Scenarios

As for Citrini's investment style, thanks to his cross-industry experience and multiple labels, Geelen strongly advocates "second-order thinking."

As Geelen himself said: "Most investors only focus on the ball itself, but I focus more on where the ball will bounce next."

From Citrini's past content and public information, this investment research institution focuses on long-term "super trends" such as AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics, and modern warfare. Additionally, it is committed to providing executable "investment reference bundles" and tactical macro trading ideas, with judgments leaning towards long-term structural changes rather than short-term trading. In the introduction on its Substack homepage, we can see its emphasis on practice: "You (the reader) will no longer need to ask 'what the trade is.'"

Furthermore, Citrini often uses "scenario hypotheses" to help readers understand second/third-order effects. Geelen once mentioned: "Don't always think about what you think will happen. Instead, think about what must happen. How will the market's reaction change the current situation? What will be the secondary effects? What obstacles are there to sustain a certain trend? And where will money flow to overcome these obstacles?" Earlier, in March 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, he boldly bought overnight financing rate call options and easily reaped nearly 50x returns. In December last year, before the US launched military action in Venezuela, he had already shared his views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds.

Since the beginning of this year, Citrini has successively brought on several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05, and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9, to some extent filling gaps in understanding industry details, technical processes, and directional changes.Currently, this research institution still maintains a production model driven by the founder, collaborating with an anonymous team of elites.