特朗普第38次喊话“即将达成协议”，全球股市迎来TACO式暴涨

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

After the U.S. military launched a surprise attack on Iran, and Trump threatened to "take strong measures against Iran" only to cancel them again, Trumpfor the 38th time declared that a "final agreement is imminent," prompting global financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, to suddenly awaken and once again experience a "TACO-style rally."

This morning, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.90%, the Nasdaq up 3.42%, and the S&P 500 up 1.73%; crypto-related stocks also rose broadly, with COIN up 4.99% and HOOD up 7.40% intraday. Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher. South Korea's KOSPI index opened up 519.25 points, or 6.69%, at 8283.2 points, triggering a circuit breaker at one point, with gains later expanding to 8%; Japan's Nikkei 225 index opened up 880.53 points, or 1.37%, at 65097.80 points. Possibly influenced by this news, oil prices fell sharply by 4.3%, while gold prices rebounded by 3.1%.

As the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict enters its fourth month, global financial markets, especially the U.S. stock market, are pricing in positive factors such as the end of the war in advance, leading to a recent string of "news-driven rallies."

Macro Background: Trump's "Negotiation for Change," U.S. CPI Hits 3-Year High, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Vanish

Overall, today's stock market rally is primarily driven by the macro context of a potential turning point in peace talks for the war, the release of the U.S. CPI index, and the fading of Fed rate hike expectations.

Trump's Remarks Show "TACO Power" Again

According to the latest news from last night and this morning, Trump first canceled the planned strikes and bombing operations against Iran for that evening; subsequently, he stated in a post that relevant consultations had been submitted to and approved by Iran's highest leadership. The final terms (both in overall concept and specific details) have been approved by all relevant parties, including the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt. Although Iran and Israel subsequently denied this, the market accepted it.

Furthermore, Trump stated on the Iran issue that "an excellent agreement has been reached" and that the relevant documents are in the final stages of drafting, expected to be finalized and signed within the next few days. He also mentioned the agreement could be signed in Europe, possibly this weekend, with Vice President Vance attending. "Once Iran signs the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened." Although the negotiations with Iran "took too long," financial markets have currently chosen to "believe it first."

U.S. Core CPI Annual Rate Hits 3-Year High

This Wednesday, the U.S. May CPI data was released, showing:

• Seasonally adjusted CPI MoM: 0.5%, expected 0.50%, prior 0.60%.
• U.S. May seasonally adjusted Core CPI MoM: 0.2%, expected 0.30%, prior 0.40%.
• U.S. May unadjusted CPI YoY: 4.2%, expected 4.20%, prior 3.80%, hitting a new high since April 2023.
• U.S. May unadjusted Core CPI YoY: 2.9%, expected 2.90%, prior 2.80%, hitting a new high since September 2025.

Some analysis suggests that U.S. inflation has returned to the "4-handle" range, and the peak of war-related inflation may have passed. CPI rising significantly for the third consecutive month highlights the increasing spending pressure on households, as there are signs more consumers are dipping into savings to cover expenses. Following the data release, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June stands at 96.3%, significantly alleviating previous expectations of a Fed rate hike. Trump loudly declared regarding this data: "I love inflation."

Fed Rate Hike Expectations for the Year Ease Significantly

After the CPI data release, the latest information shows that the market no longer fully prices in a Fed rate hike this year.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "U.S. inflation remains uncomfortably high at 4%, but the weaker-than-expected core data does relieve some pressure. With rising energy prices being the main driver and housing costs easing, we haven't yet seen clear signs of broader second-round effects, which should allow the Fed to remain patient."

Analyst Afonso Borges from Julius Baer also noted that the modest rally led by short-term Treasuries following Wednesday's CPI report "makes sense," as the better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Fed rate hike later this year.

Japanese and South Korean Markets: Retail Investors Borrow to Bottom-Fish, Yen Continues to Depreciate

Turning attention to the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, after experiencing a market decline in the previous two days, they are currently in a phase of significant rebound.

On June 10, according to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) underwent a sharp two-day correction due to factors like negative U.S. stock news and a slump in semiconductor stocks. During this period, overdraft balances at major commercial banks increased by over 600 billion won (approximately 2.67 billion yuan). Analysis suggests that retail investors, anticipating a market rebound after the sharp stock price decline, began using overdraft accounts for "borrowed investments."

According to Nikkei Asia, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, which would be the highest policy rate level since 1995. Possibly influenced by this news, the US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) rose 0.2% intraday, with the current exchange rate at 160.168.

Overall, funds in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets are still growing steadily, but the BoJ's rate hike could gradually tighten liquidity in the Japanese capital market. Bank of America analyst Shusuke Yamada stated that if the BoJ adopts a hawkish stance and raises rates at next week's meeting, it is expected to support the Yen. He noted that the market has already priced in the rate hike expectation.

Outlook: Unclear War Situation, Institutions Warn of Deep Correction, Stock Market Faces Liquidity Test

Although today's volatile "positive news" from Trump stimulated stock market gains in many parts of the world, a closer look at various dynamic factors reveals that market sentiment remains in a phase of cautious optimism and preparedness for deep corrections.

No Turning Point in U.S.-Iran Situation

Ali Akbar Dareini from the Center for Strategic Research in Tehran stated that despite Trump's announcement cancelling the strike on Iran, the situation has not changed. From Iran's perspective, before any negotiations begin and Iran prepares to discuss nuclear issues, the U.S. first needs to take confidence-building measures, which has not happened. The reality shows that the U.S. has not taken any steps to de-escalate tensions. Iran's position is that it will not compromise under coercion.

Institutional Bullishness Turns, Beware of Deep Correction

Alex Altmann, head of global equity strategy at Barclays, who has often called for "holding stocks" during market volatility and accurately timed rebounds, recently issued a rare prudent warning. In his latest market assessment, he stated that driven by multiple factors including technical overbought conditions, excessive sentiment, and macro-environmental pressures, he has turned bearish on the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks. He believes the U.S. stock market is currently in the "middle of a hill" of a structural correction, and the biggest concern is the severe disconnect between retail investor sentiment and macro reality. He even bluntly stated, "The S&P 500 index could face a total deep correction of 6%-7%."

Recent data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey shows that the bearish proportion among investors soared to 47.7% in the past week, nearing the year's high of 52% (March 18), and far above the historical average of 31%.

Additionally, several institutions have recently expressed bearish views: Previously, BofA Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about U.S. stocks, as increasing bear market signals indicate the market is nearing a top.

A strategist team led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report dated June 5 that currently, about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, consistent with the average level seen at historical market tops. The S&P 500 index shows statistically significant overvaluation in 17 out of 20 valuation metrics, with 8 of these metrics exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Furthermore, stocks with high P/E ratios have significantly outperformed undervalued stocks, which strategists view as a sign of excessive speculation. Within the technology sector, the gap between the best and worst performing quintiles has widened to its highest level since February 2000.

Of course, this view has been openly opposed by "new stock god" Serenity, who believes that Bank of America's bearish rhetoric should be viewed with caution, as a flood of negative news often arises because institutions need liquidity.

Regarding the South Korean stock market, on June 10, the open interest in put options on the Korea Kospi 200 index has surged sharply relative to call options recently, approaching levels that have historically preceded market declines. As of the close of the previous trading day, the ratio of protective puts (for hedging against declines) to speculative calls approached 2.5 times, a five-year high. This indicator has only touched this threshold a few times before. Notably, South Korean retail investors sold over 1 trillion won worth of overseas stocks in the first week of June, perhaps signaling a return of domestic investors to the local stock market.

SpaceX IPO Arrives, U.S. Stock Market Faces Liquidity Test

The latest news indicates that the retail investor subscription amount for SpaceX's U.S. IPO has exceeded $100 billion. Combined with earlier reports that "SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion, with 30% of the shares offered to individual investors," the current retail subscription ratio is already over 4 times oversubscribed.

U.S. investment manager Jim Chanos stated that investors are pricing in grand narratives rather than realistic earnings prospects, and SpaceX's valuation multiple has far exceeded that of Tesla (TSLA.O). Additionally, institutions like Franklin Templeton, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, and Kuwait's sovereign wealth fund are joining the IPO subscription wave. According to foreign media reports, multiple institutional investors have each placed orders for approximately $10 billion or more worth of shares. Two days ago, the SpaceX IPO had already attracted over $250 billion in investment demand, higher than its planned $75 billion fundraising target, with oversubscription nearing 4 times; extrapolating market trends, the oversubscription ratio could climb to 10 times before the official listing this Friday.

"Wall Street oracle" and Bitmine board chairman Tom Lee commented on this, stating that at this stage, U.S. stock investors are actively selling their existing stock holdings to accumulate cash to participate in this major IPO. The resulting capital diversion effect continues to ferment and may be the culprit behind the recent weakness in U.S. stocks. Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, also stated that participating in the SpaceX IPO is akin to buying cryptocurrency about 15 years ago; you could either lose your entire principal or achieve exponential returns.

Despite concerns that the SpaceX IPO has triggered a liquidity crunch in the market, according to market sources, S&P Dow Jones Indices believes SpaceX is eligible for rapid inclusion in some of its indices. At that time, SpaceX could become a "phenomenal giant" in the U.S. stock market.

In summary, global stock markets will continue to face influences from fund liquidity, domestic market policies, and global geopolitical shifts like the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. In the short term, investors should be wary of Trump's potential market manipulation tactics, oscillating between "threatening bearishness" and "TACO-style bullishness."