BIT 每週市場觀察：高點腰斬，恐慌翻倍。6 萬美元是唯一生命線

Six negative factors are fermenting simultaneously and amplifying each other, rather than having independent impacts. Early this week, Bitcoin fell from $73,396, reaching an intra-week low of $61,351 on Thursday, a new low since February and nearly halved from its all-time high of $126,210.50 in October 2025. Ethereum led this downturn, plunging 16% in a single week to around $1,683. After the price approached $60,000 (the largest bullish support barrier on the entire options board), both cryptocurrencies saw a modest 24-hour rebound: Bitcoin futures rose 2.75%, and Ethereum rebounded 5.71%. While market panic hasn't completely dissipated, risks can now be priced and hedged using tools.

Six Overlapping Risks Trigger Deep Correction

Direct Trigger: MicroStrategy Sells Bitcoin for the First Time in Over Two Years

MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since December 2022, offloading 32 coins (total value approximately $2.5 million, average selling price $77,135) to fund preferred stock dividends. The reduction accounts for only 0.004% of its total holdings of 843,706 coins, and the selling price was higher than its cost basis, resulting in a profitable exit.

While the actual selling pressure was minuscule, the symbolic impact was immense: Saylor has long held the core belief of only accumulating Bitcoin, never selling. The breach of this belief triggered rapid market panic—even the most steadfast institutional giant began to reduce its position. Subsequently, whales sold approximately 25,000 Bitcoins over the following week, and retail panic selling exacerbated the decline. When Bitcoin's price fell to $63,083, MicroStrategy's overall holdings fell into unrealized losses, with an average cost basis of $75,699, resulting in a book loss of over $10,000 per coin.

ETF Outflows Exacerbate Market Weakness

From May 15 to June 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest outflow streak since the product's launch in January 2024, with a total capital exodus of approximately $4.4 billion. Over three weeks, total ETF AUM shrank from $104.29 billion to $82.83 billion.

BlackRock's IBIT accounted for 75% of total outflows, reaching $3.3 billion; Fidelity's FBTC saw outflows of $456 million; and Grayscale's GBTC saw outflows of $303 million. On June 4, the outflow trend paused with a small net inflow of $3.05 million, but this appears to be a temporary halt rather than a trend reversal. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that sustained outflows have turned cumulative flows for 2026 negative year-to-date, though total cumulative net inflows since the product's launch remain positive at around $55 billion.

Four Other Macro and Geopolitical Risks Amplify the Decline

1. Large wallet transfers from the Mt. Gox exchange have once again triggered market sell-off concerns.
2. The macro environment remains persistently bearish: inflation stickiness has exceeded expectations, significantly cooling market expectations for rate cuts (Polymarket bets on zero rate cuts in 2026 have reached 66%), the US dollar is strengthening, and US Treasury yields are rising. Capital continues to flow towards AI and tech sectors, with US stocks hitting new highs this week, creating a severe divergence from cryptocurrency trends.
3. On June 5, Hezbollah rejected Israel's ceasefire proposal, escalating geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East again, compounded by unresolved US-Iran tensions.
4. A single factor is unlikely to significantly suppress crypto prices. In an environment devoid of bullish catalysts, the confluence of multiple negative factors has led to a deep correction.

Derivatives Data Signals and Core Interpretation

Implied Volatility (IV) Rises on Second Test Low, Showing a Peak Signal

During the second test of the low, implied volatility surged again. Bitcoin's June 26 at-the-money near-month option IV rose to 47.47% (up 4.14 percentage points), while Ethereum's near-month IV soared to 64.38% (up 10.68 percentage points, with volatility elasticity roughly 2.6 times that of Bitcoin). On June 9, short-term near-end contract IV briefly touched 65.82% for Bitcoin and 83.50% for Ethereum.

During the session, Bitcoin's DVOL volatility index peaked at 55, closing down 2.65% to 48.06; Ethereum's DVOL closed at 66.31, with a slight intraday decline of 1.34%. Both volatility indices, while remaining elevated, have turned lower in sync, a classic signal of a temporary IV peak: the market frantically bought short-term downside protection near the low, followed by partial unwinding to relieve pressure.

Implied Skew Curve Shows Key Divergence Structure

The clearest data indicator this week is the skew term structure:

The near end of the curve is filled with extreme bearish panic. On June 9, the short-term effective skew for Bitcoin was -17.96, and for Ethereum, -19.58; the 10Delta deep out-of-the-money put skew worsened more significantly, reaching -33.35 and -40.61 respectively. As the price approached the $60,000 mark, the market was willing to pay a very high premium for short-term downside protection.

The forward curve has noticeably recovered to a more bullish stance: Bitcoin's 3-month, 6-month, and forward skews for September, December, and next March turned positive (increasing by +0.77 to +1.83 percentage points); Ethereum's forward skew also turned positive after August. The curve has shifted from last week's deeply bearish across the board to a steeper "near-term deep panic, forward pricing recovery" shape.

This is a classic divergence pattern in the mid-stage of a decline: short-term panic dominates the market, but forward derivatives have already begun pricing in market stabilization over the next 3 to 6 months. Practical impact on structured products: the cost of forward downside protection decreases, making the construction of longer-duration protection strategies like Collars and Bullish Seagulls significantly more cost-effective.

Institutional Block Trades Completely Reverse, Shifting from Defensive Hedging to Buying the Dip

Last week, institutions were generally in a defensive mode, with buying put options accounting for 33.3%, the highest proportion. This week, the sentiment has completely reversed:

The proportion of block sell put options surged to 42.0% (up 14.1 percentage points MoM), and buy call options rose to 33.0% (up 24 percentage points MoM). Buy put options halved to 17.3%, and sell call options fell to 7.6%. Retail operations showed a similar convergence, with retail sell put options ranking first at 30.1%.

Institutions have shifted from actively buying protection/hedging to selling protection and positioning for a bottom near the lows—primarily selling large volumes of PUTs and buying CALLs around the $60,000 put barrier. Composite transaction data supports this trend: 44.2% of Bitcoin institutional block trades were put spread strategies (selling near-month PUTs, buying deeper OTM PUTs to cap maximum downside loss), essentially collecting premiums at the $60,000 threshold while establishing a controlled-risk bottom position.

Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual funding rates remained neutral throughout the period (BTC 0.000%, ETH -0.006%), indicating orderly deleveraging without cascading liquidations, with a clear distinction in risk levels.

Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral Comprehensive Analysis

Bullish Arguments

1. Panic sentiment has shown structural boundaries: The massive put open interest barrier at $60,000 (approximately 19,000 contracts, the highest across the entire board) is attracting real institutional capital. Institutions selling PUTs and buying CALLs at this level is effectively equivalent to buying the dip using options—collecting premiums, committing to buy at $60,000, while simultaneously buying calls to capture any rebound.
2. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to cycle lows. Historically, this value often acts as a precursor condition for rebounds (not a direct upward catalyst, but the underlying conditions are in place). Long-term holders have not engaged in large-scale panic selling; the current selling pressure stems from short-term whale de-risking and ETF outflows, not from long-term coin holders selling at a loss. Exchange inventory reserves remain low.
3. The 13-day consecutive ETF outflow streak has paused. Key positive catalyst: MicroStrategy announced it would reserve $1 billion in cash to fund preferred stock dividends, completely severing the link between dividend payments and Bitcoin sales. The sale of 32 coins was a one-time confidence wobble, not a source of ongoing selling pressure.
4. Forward skew has recovered, with derivatives markets pricing in stabilization over 3-6 months. If the spot price holds the $60,000 level and the US CPI data on June 10 does not show an unexpected upside surprise, all conditions for a technical stabilization could be in place.

Bearish Downside Risks

1. The second test of the low is not yet confirmed complete. The current price of $63,083 still has a 4.9% downside potential to the $60,000 put barrier. A break below could trigger gamma effects and magnetic pull from the put barrier, accelerating the decline. The next major put support levels are $55,000 (10,800 contracts) and $50,000 (12,500 contracts).
2. Ethereum's selling pressure is stronger than Bitcoin's: Ethereum forward futures have shifted from a premium of 6.52% last week to a deep contango of 9.49%, with a slightly negative perpetual funding rate. The ETH/BTC near-month volatility ratio hit a cycle high of 1.356, indicating higher downside elasticity and weaker relative performance for Ethereum.
3. MicroStrategy's semi-monthly dividend payment mechanism is now in place, which could lead to continued, albeit small, regular Bitcoin sales pressure.
4. The June 10 CPI release and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting (the first to release a dot plot under new Governor Warsh) serve as two major macro catalysts that could sway the market at any time. Until the $60,000 support level is confirmed to hold, premature large-scale dip buying could expose investors to further downside.

Neutral Comprehensive Assessment

The panic has reached an identifiable structural node. The $60,000 level is the single most critical price point in the current market: it's not just a psychological level, but a core node converging the largest open interest on the options board, institutional dip-buying capital, and the binary dividing line for market bullish and bearish views. Holding this level provides a foundation for stabilization. If it breaks, the next gamma pressure cluster sits at $55,000.

The institutional shift from defense to buying the dip is the most critical signal in the entire dataset. However, the proportion of block trade volume has fallen from 46.3% to 16.3%, indicating correct directional judgment but not yet full conviction in entry. A phased deployment approach is recommended. The market faces two paths: holds $60,000, or breaks below $60,000—all subsequent moves will be determined by this.

BIT Practical Views

Prioritize Collar Strategy, Primary Hedging Tool This Week

The core purpose is not to chase high yields, but asset risk management. The recovery in forward skew lowers the cost of long-dated downside protection, while short-term IV remains elevated, increasing the cost-effectiveness of selling calls. This represents the best entry window for Collar strategies in weeks. The market still retains the possibility of testing or breaking $60,000. Before the repricing triggered by CPI (June 10) and FOMC (June 16-17), constructing a Collar structure with no margin calls locks in maximum downside loss. No need to wait for market clarity; the core value of the Collar strategy is controlling risk without accurately predicting market direction.

Phased Dip-Buying Strategy, Build Positions Around $60,000

At the current price of $63,000 combined with high volatility, premiums for selling PUTs are at cyclical highs. This suits three types of structured products: Fixed Coupon Notes (FCN), Dual Currency Products (DCP) for lower entry, and Accumulators. The Bullish Seagull strategy is also suitable: USDT principal investment, conversion price set at $60,000 or lower. If the price tests the put barrier, coins can be acquired at an even lower price, and if the market recovers, it yields high standardized annualized returns.

Institutions are already selling PUTs to buy the dip at the $60,000 level. The tiered returns of a Bullish Seagull perfectly align with the smart money's approach: hold notes, collect interest, wait, with the product offering a built-in lower entry price. Strictly control individual position sizes, reserve buffer for further downside, and only add to positions after the price firmly holds $60,000.

Volatility Sellers Can Test Waters Gradually, but Not Yet Suitable for Heavy Positions

The IV peak signal is genuine: DVOL pulled back intraday, extreme near-term skew typically mean-reverts quickly historically, and institutions have already sold large PUTs. Especially the coupon yield for selling Ethereum volatility is at a cycle peak.

However, an indication of a peak does not confirm the top; actual volatility still has the potential for another surge. Naked short volatility, directly exposing gamma risk to bet on $60,000 support during CPI and FOMC events, is pure speculation. Following the institutional approach: use spread structures to sell PUTs (sell near-month PUTs, buy deep OTM PUTs to cap max loss), starting with small test positions. Only after the spot price firmly holds $60,000 and DVOL declines further can volatility-selling positions be increased.

For Holders Planning to Reduce or Take Profit: Current Levels Not Suitable for Large-Scale Selling

After a deep correction, the reasonable execution prices for high-price selling structures (Decreasing Accumulators/DQ, Short FCN, High-Price Selling DCP) have significantly moved lower. Panic selling at $63,000 would only amplify actual book losses. If a rebound occurs towards the previous support-turned-resistance at $72,000, or near the call barrier at $80,000, consider deploying selling structures in phases. The optimal strategy at this stage: hold the core position + hedge with protection.

Summary

Six negative factors simultaneously resonated, impacting the market. After digesting the risks, a substantial options support barrier has formed around the $60,000 level.

Action priority: first, build a Collar for risk control; second, phase in dip-buying near the $60,000 mark; third, only after the bottom is confirmed stable, engage in large-scale volatility selling for arbitrage.