Arthur Hayes新文章：AI泡沫即將破裂，加密市場短期承壓

Original Author: Arthur Hayes

Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

Is it all a figment of my imagination, or has investing in AI truly become as simple as subscribing to Citrini Research's services and blindly buying all the stocks it recommends?

Am I dreaming? Or has the price of oil long lost its influence over the economy and politics? That's why Trump and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can exchange barbs on social media while a multitude of ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-year US Treasury yield is 0.5 percentage points higher than the effective federal funds rate. With the market sending such a clear signal, will the Fed really hold steady and refuse to raise rates at its next meeting?

Will all the dividends created by AI for America really only fall into the hands of a few tech workers?

Faced with this chaotic world, I had to conduct a reality check to confirm whether I was awake or trapped in a dream. Once the test proves everything is an illusion, I will immediately adjust my investment portfolio. This article is my verification process. After writing these words and organizing my thoughts, my holdings will either undergo a major shift or remain as they are.

Let me first state my core judgment: the current market state feels more like a dream. Throughout the entire investment system, the price of oil and other hydrocarbon energy sources is a core variable with a reverse transmission effect. The essence of human perception is converting energy into biological intelligence, and the logic of AI is the same. This rule will never be broken. The market may deviate from this common sense in the short term, but reality will eventually strike back.

This article will start with oil prices and ultimately end with the US election. The current situation is likely to trigger a crash in the AI stock bubble, dragging the entire crypto market down with it. Once the dust settles, Bitcoin will have a chance to bottom out and rebound. I previously asserted that Bitcoin would never touch the $60,000 mark again. Clearly, that was a misjudgment, which is normal for market predictions. I always adhere to one principle: have a clear opinion, but don't be stubbornly attached to it.

Let's analyze this further.

To Negotiate or Not: The Core Dilemma

Politicians always act in their own self-interest. Only Trump himself likely knows the real reason for his unprovoked military action against Iran. Faced with the constant stream of statements from him and his advisors, the outside world cannot discern the truth. Dwelling on the cause is pointless now; the real question is whether Trump and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will choose a ceasefire and how the standoff will end.

This conflict is now entirely orchestrated by Trump, and for him and the Republican Party, starting a war in an election year is a difficult position.

In the US, the prices of necessities like gasoline and food often directly determine election outcomes. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, energy and food inflation are rising, all stemming from the Trump administration's unilateral action against Iran without consulting the public. Some might point fingers at Israel, but that argument doesn't hold water. Understanding US history makes it clear that domestic forces never take orders from outsiders.

Americans generally don't oppose foreign wars as long as their own lives aren't affected and no loved ones are harmed. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that only thirteen US soldiers have died in this special military operation. This is why the US favors using high-precision long-range weapons and waging "video game wars." Even if this Middle Eastern conflict lacks a clear winning strategy and goes against the expectations of many supporters, his base still stands with the Republican Party. The fact that some Republican congressmen who wavered in their stance lost their seats after facing internal pressure from Trump confirms this.

Trump's core vulnerability isn't that his base won't vote in November, but rather that soaring prices will drive a large number of swing voters towards the Democrats. The cost of living has become the biggest issue on Trump's path to election.

To win over swing voters, Trump must at least stabilize current oil prices. With the supply chain now gradually absorbing the pressure from rising energy and raw material costs, completely curbing inflation is unrealistic. All Trump can do now is manage market expectations of inflation, not change inflation itself.

Whether Trump is willing to reach a deal with Iran depends entirely on oil prices. As oil prices climb, his rhetoric will soften; but if the market anticipates negotiations, causing oil prices to fall, he will harden his stance again. Geopolitically speaking, any agreement reached in these negotiations would likely be more disadvantageous than the one the Obama administration signed with Iran. In the eyes of many voters, this would be equivalent to "defeat," costing the Republican Party at the polls.

Negotiations always require concessions from both sides, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has similar considerations. If oil prices are too high, their main economic partners will pressure Iran to compromise with the US; but once Iran signals a willingness to negotiate, causing oil prices to fall, the pressure from those partners also eases.

At current oil price levels, neither the US nor Iran has a strong incentive to back down. While prices are clearly higher than before the conflict, they haven't yet triggered a full-scale crisis. The commodity market is generally stable, there's no global famine, and most countries can source critical industrial materials from other channels.

But this delicate balance cannot last forever. A significant reduction in global core energy supply without a corresponding price surge defies market logic. Once global spare production capacity is exhausted, spot prices will inevitably surge, a consensus among many commodity analysts. The crisis hasn't fully erupted yet only because global energy inventories were ample before the conflict.

If the US-Iran stalemate continues until the end of Q2, spot prices for hydrocarbon energy and various basic commodities will undoubtedly experience a sharp surge in Q3.

To borrow Churchill's famous quote: Politicians will always exhaust all other options before making the right choice. Only when the situation completely spirals out of control will Trump and Iran truly sit down at the negotiating table. In my view, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will likely persist until early Q3.

Let's assume oil prices will rise gradually amidst volatility. Under this scenario, how will rising oil prices interact with Trump's campaign rhetoric?

November Election Showdown: Republicans vs. Democrats

According to prediction market Polymarket's odds, the Republican Party can only hold onto the Senate by a narrow margin and will suffer significant losses in the House.

There is a general consensus that the Republicans will lose the House, but I have a different view. Trump still has a chance to turn things around, and the key lies in shifting the media narrative toward regulation and taxation related to data center construction and the AI industry.

Here is the current seat distribution among parties (218 votes needed to pass a bill):

Based on current Polymarket odds, here is the projected party composition after the election:

The Republican's seat situation in both the Senate and House looks grim post-election. However, the Republicans can change this through redistricting. When the existing rules guarantee defeat, changing the rules becomes inevitable. Assuming Polymarket's predictions are correct, the Republicans need to gain 19 seats. Redistricting can reduce this number.

Here is the potential impact of redistricting:

Now the Republicans only need to win 11 more seats. Next, let's look at the competitive districts. Based on current polls, which districts might slightly lean Republican within the margin of error?

There are 35 seats with significant uncertainty. As mentioned earlier, high inflation and rising living costs are negative issues Trump can't easily reverse. Another major topic that can stir up all voters on both sides is data center expansion and AI's impact on the job market.

Almost everyone, except the ultra-wealthy, worries that data center construction will drive up costs and that AI will take away jobs. Multiple regions have already paused new data center projects, and calls for higher taxes on AI companies to subsidize the general public are growing louder. After all, the vast majority are not AI executives or highly paid workers.

For voters in competitive districts, this type of issue is highly influential. Trump can secure the remaining key seats by taking a stance on the AI industry. At this stage, he only needs to make statements, not enact concrete legislation. He just needs to promise the public that if the Republicans win, they will tackle the AI industry after the election.

As a seasoned politician, Trump is adept at making campaign promises that are rarely fulfilled. His handling of the Epstein-related files is a classic example: loudly proclaiming investigations during the campaign, then releasing only a small amount of documents after taking office. He can apply the same tactic now: promise during the campaign to pass laws slowing down data center expansion and impose windfall taxes on AI companies, using the revenue for a new round of stimulus checks; then, after the election is over and the Republican power base is secured, gradually walk back those statements.

Some might find it hard to understand Trump emulating left-wing Democratic politicians. But don't forget, he launched the largest universal relief program since the New Deal, without restricting how recipients spent the money. To protect his political position, temporarily distancing himself from AI giants like Elon Musk and creating an image of supporting the common people is not difficult for him.

If Trump does unleash harsh rhetoric against the AI industry, the market won't just see it as a campaign ploy; it will assume the US will substantively limit capital expansion in AI and increase industry taxes. Panic would spread instantly, and the AI stock bubble would burst.

We saw how sensitive the market is to this kind of disruption when Elon Musk and Trump publicly argued on social media, Musk's affiliated departments publicly questioned Trump, and Trump responded by threatening to cancel government contracts related to Musk's companies, causing Tesla's stock price to plummet 18% in a single day. Politics can support an industry, but it can also deal a sudden blow.

That dispute was later revealed to be a form of media hype; the two quickly reconciled, and Musk even attended a recent summit between Trump and the Chinese leader in Beijing. But the market initially believed it, triggering a massive sell-off.

This was just a tremor caused by a personal conflict. If Trump, representing the Republican Party, clearly states plans to heavily tax AI models and agent-related businesses, the impact would be far greater. When similar remarks surfaced in South Korean political circles, their main stock index nearly hit the daily limit the next day, only recovering after official clarification.

The current optimistic market outlook for the AI sector is based on the belief that industry revenue will continue exponential growth and that the concentration of new technology and wealth won't trigger public backlash. This notion is detached from reality, more like a dream. Trump's statements would become the reality check that punctures this illusion. Whether he actually acts still hinges on oil prices.

The longer the Iran situation pushes up oil prices, the more severe the inflation problem becomes, and the fewer campaign talking points Trump has left, eventually forcing him to target data centers and the AI industry.

The reason Trump desperately wants to avoid a Democrat-controlled House is straightforward. If the Democrats take the House, they can use their subpoena power to constantly call Trump, his family, and key advisors to testify under oath, asking all sorts of pointed questions. If the Democrats retake the White House in 2028, the Department of Justice, armed with extensive investigative leads, could initiate a purge, scrutinizing Trump's business entities.

Let's trace the logical chain: The prolonged US-Iran standoff pushes oil prices higher; rising prices lead to voter discontent; Trump must then court voters by threatening to regulate and tax the AI industry.

From now until the November election, even a halving of AI-related stocks is an acceptable price for Trump to pay to avoid endless Democratic investigations. After the election, he can easily reverse his previous statements on data centers and AI, allowing the industry to normalize, potentially driving the S&P 500 towards the 10,000 point mark.

But for investors, market movements are interconnected. A crash in the AI sector would fundamentally alter market expectations for its future returns. After experiencing the shock of regulation and heavy taxes, investors will never be as blindly optimistic about this track as before.

California Dream: Where Does Liquidity Flow?

Before analyzing the potential impact of the planned IPOs of the three giants – SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI – on global financial markets, let me first explain a puzzle: starting from late Q3 last year, dollar liquidity has been easing, yet Bitcoin didn't experience a synchronized surge. What's the reason behind this?

On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was officially launched to the public, marking the beginning of the AI super-bubble. Almost simultaneously, the scandal of FTX founder SBF misappropriating user funds was fully exposed. Bitcoin bottomed around $15,000 that year and then rallied to $125,000 by October 2025, a cumulative gain of over six times. However, over the same period, Nvidia's stock price rose eleven times, and many small to mid-cap tech stocks leveraging computing power to convert electricity into intelligence also skyrocketed. The returns from the AI sector far outpaced the crypto market, and the gap has been widening since late 2024.

Even with Bitcoin (white) reaching all-time highs, Nvidia (gold) still delivered superior returns.

Bitcoin (white) has performed worse after its all-time high, now down 50%. Nvidia (gold), the world's most valuable company by market cap, has still risen 10% since late 2025.

Based on my previous logic of analyzing the crypto market through fiat liquidity, Bitcoin should have risen much higher in the current environment. The reality is the opposite. Where is the problem?

I used to focus on the overall scale of fiat money printing but neglected the specific direction of fund flows. I originally thought liquidity would eventually find its way into Bitcoin, pushing the price up. This time, my judgment was off.

My conclusion is: almost all newly created dollar liquidity has been absorbed by the AI sector. AI is a highly capital-intensive industry. Building the massive data centers needed to run AI requires consuming enormous amounts of energy. Hydrocarbon energy, nuclear power, and renewables are converted into electricity, which powers the data centers, where dedicated chips perform model training and inference calculations.

Starting in 2024, global data center capital expenditures began to surge, accelerating further in 2025, causing industry funding demand to explode. According to compiled public data, total debt financing in AI-related fields since November 2022 amounts to $1.5 trillion. Coincidentally, the increase in the US broad money supply M2 over the same period was also $1.5 trillion. The answer is clear: all new dollars flowed into the AI sector, leaving none for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's strong rebound from the FTX bankruptcy lows in 2022 was possible because the massive debt-fueled expansion in the AI industry mainly occurred after 2025. Of that $1.5 trillion in debt, $1.3 trillion was incurred from 2025 onwards. Coincidentally, Bitcoin's price peak occurred in October 2025, precisely when capital expenditures in the AI field reached an unprecedented scale.

This correlation is crucial. Once the AI stock market crashes, there will be no excess capital left for Bitcoin. Banks will tighten lending, and many