每周編輯精選 Weekly Editor's Picks（0418-0424）
- 核心觀點：本週行業焦點集中於石油市場潛在的實物斷供風險、加密資產在投資組合中的成熟化趨勢、以及Polymarket預測市場中規則理解與套利認知差的博弈。
- 關鍵要素：
- 石油市場面臨「時間錯配」：即使荷姆茲海峽恢復通航，前期運輸中斷導致的油輪周轉延遲仍將持續侵蝕庫存，可能引發實物短缺，而非週期性上漲。
- 加密投資趨勢：一級市場A輪及後期可用資金約60-70億美元，種子輪約10-20億美元；未來將是「FICC+C」（大類資產配置加加密資產）的時代。
- Polymarket認知差：市場並非單純預測事件，而是「現實」與「規則」間的博弈。讀懂結算規則才是獲利關鍵，利用誤讀和爭議產生的價格偏差可獲套利機會。
- WLFI結構性風險：75/25收益分配、80%代幣內部集中度以及家族與監管機構間的身份重疊，構成利益衝突的制度性基礎，不因行情好轉而消失。
- 安全事件：Kelp DAO的rsETH橋接合約遭攻擊損失近3億美元，引發Aave、LayerZero三方博弈；Aave創始人個人捐贈5000 ETH應急。
The information stream moves too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis to be drowned out by hot topics. This "Weekly Editor's Pick" column retrieves articles of judgment value from the sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.
Macro Landscape
"Temporal mismatch" is a variable underestimated by the market.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes traffic in the short term, the delay in tanker turnaround caused by the previous transport disruption will continue to erode onshore inventories for weeks to come. This means the supply problem won't be immediately alleviated with the "resumption of navigation" but will manifest with a lag in inventories and the spot market.
In this context, refinery behavior becomes a key amplifier. If the strait closure lasts beyond April, traditional oil pricing frameworks will break down. The market will face not a cyclical uptick, but an extreme scenario nearing a "physical shortage"—under such conditions, price ceases to be an effective adjustment tool, and the concept of an oil price ceiling loses its relevance.
What can truly rebalance the market is not supply recovery, but a "policy-driven demand suppression" similar to what was seen during the pandemic.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Global Consumer Crypto Census: Users, Revenue, and Sector Distribution
The user problem in crypto is essentially a geographic one (real mass users haven't been noticed by the West); Tron is the most important consumer-grade public chain; on-chain e-commerce is not viable; revenue and user numbers often move in opposite directions; the perpetual DEX war is over, with HYPE emerging as the winner.
I Used AI to Analyze 221 'Junk Coins' and Finally Found the Only Way to Trade Them
When dealing with junk coins, predicting the start of a pump or "catching the top" is futile. The only viable strategy is to short during a pullback after a surge and strictly close the position on a bounce back up. The only effective indicator: naked K-line.
Get in early, hold short, and get out fast.
VCs Sticking to Primary Markets, How Much Capital Do They Have Left?
First-tier investors estimate: available capital for Series A and later stages is roughly $60-70 billion, while available capital for Seed and earlier stages is around $10-20 billion.
Fu Peng's 2026 Hong Kong Speech: Why I Joined the Crypto Industry?
The future will definitely be "FICC+C", meaning Macro Asset Allocation will incorporate crypto assets. Technology drives financial change, and now is the moment new technology brings about new finance. Crypto assets have matured to the point where they can be included in investment portfolios.
Also recommended: "Hong Kong IPO Subscriptions, A New Battleground for Shenzhen Airdrop Farmers".
Prediction Markets
You Bet on News, 'Whales' Read the Rules: The True Cognitive Edge in Polymarket Losses
Polymarket has never been a simple market for "correctly guessing events"; it's more like a system that translates real-world events into legal text, and then translates that legal text into settlement results.
Understanding the rules is as important as doing research. The advantage of 'whales' often comes from a deeper understanding of the rules—knowing what this system recognizes and what the arbitration will accept.
Whoever can realize earlier that there is a gap between "reality" and "rules" will have a better chance of profiting from the price discrepancies created by misinterpretation, controversy, and emotions.
The Traffic King of Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" is... LeBron James???
About 70% of trading volume is concentrated in candidate groups with less than 1% probability. The groups trading or providing liquidity in these absurd event contracts can be categorized into three types: "lottery players, bots, and airdrop farmers."
Users trading James or Kardashian on Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" contract are neither crazy nor stupid. They are either chasing stable annualized returns or seeking a better execution path. While the operations seem absurd, the underlying motivation remains rational.
Policy & Stablecoins
Only 50% Chance of Passing This Year, Can the CLARITY Act Succeed Before the Midterm Elections?
CeFi & DeFi
Aave Is Handing Over the DeFi Lending Throne Due to Its Own Folly
Aave, through its incredibly foolish crisis management/public relations strategy, is allowing community panic to fester for days, thereby losing its greatest advantage in the lending track—hundreds of billions in locked value and the user perception of being the "safest DeFi" protocol.
The Reality Behind the Satirical Fiction of WLFI
The core controversy surrounding WLFI lies in its revenue distribution structure: "zero investment, high cut, zero responsibility."
WLFI's risk profile can be divided into two levels:
- Structural Risk: The 75/25 revenue distribution clause, the 80% internal concentration of tokens, and the overlapping identities between family members and regulatory decision-makers form the institutional basis for conflicts of interest. Issues at this level do not automatically resolve due to improved market conditions or partial repayments.
- Operational Risk: The Dolomite lending incident revealed a lack of basic risk management awareness at the project's financial decision-making level, coupled with a lack of transparent disclosure for related-party transactions. Combined with the token's low liquidity, such operations have the potential to destabilize the market.
Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Ethereum & Scaling
Weekly Hot Topic Catch-up
Policy & Macro Market
Trump announces an extension of the ceasefire, maintaining the naval blockade;
Iran: The Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran's sovereignty and will not relinquish control.
SpaceX drops an "IPO bombshell": Space AI technology is unproven and may not be commercializable.
US SEC Chair: Moving forward with establishing a digital asset regulatory framework, proposing the "A-C-T" strategy.
Singapore to refine crypto capital regulation: Public chain assets may no longer be blanket-classified as high-risk.
Views & Voices
Hong Kong Official responds to "Middle Eastern capital inflows": It's a two-way exchange, tokenized funds have landed on Middle Eastern wealth management platforms.
Dragonfly Partner: DeFi evolves through failures, the system has resilience and self-repair capabilities.
Justin Sun files a lawsuit against World Liberty Financial.
Elon Musk agrees to make ASTEROID the SpaceX mascot (Related Meme & Backstory).
Institutions, Major Companies & Leading Projects
Polymarket previews the launch of perpetual contract features (Interpretation).
Security
Kelp DAO's rsETH bridging contract on LayerZero suffered an attack, losing nearly $300 million (Review, Tripartite Game involving Aave, L0, Kelp), Aave Founder Stani announces a personal donation of 5000 ETH to resolve current issues.
RAVE crash (Full Review).
Iran opens fire on a tanker scam victim.
A user made $34,000 by using a hairdryer to interfere with Polymarket's temperature prediction market.
Attached portal to the "Weekly Editor's Pick" series. See you next time~
