MSX美股每日观察：苹果FY 2026 Q3财报：iPhone、Mac、Services三项创新高，但供应链隐忧拖累下季指引，股价走低
- 核心观点：苹果2024财年Q3财报显示核心业务营收、EPS及iPhone、Mac、服务收入均超预期并创六月季度历史新高，但下季营收指引低于市场预期，主因先进制程芯片和内存成本等供应链约束将显著加剧，导致财报后股价重挫。
- 关键要素：
- 营收1094.17亿美元，超预期1088.53亿美元；EPS为2.02美元，超预期1.89美元，iPhone、Mac、服务三项收入均创六月季度新高。
- 毛利率50.1%包含约2个百分点关税退款一次性利好，剔除后约48.1%仍略超预期47.9%；但服务收入307.39亿与iPad收入61.91亿均不及预期。
- 下季指引营收增速9%-11%，低于一致预期约12%；管理层预警供应链（先进制程芯片、内存成本）对iPhone、iPad、Mac的制约将"显著加剧"。
- 本季为库克卸任CEO前的最后一次财报电话会；市场核心关注供应紧张是否拖累Q4旺季出货。
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Today's Observation
Apple's quarterly revenue, EPS, iPhone, and Mac sales all exceeded expectations, with iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue hitting record highs for the June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3). Revenue reached $109.417 billion, surpassing the expected $108.853 billion; EPS was $2.02, beating the expected $1.89; Mac revenue hit $10.352 billion, significantly exceeding the expected $8.619 billion. The gross margin of 50.1% includes a one-time benefit of approximately 2 percentage points from tariff rebates; excluding that, it stands at about 48.1%, still slightly above the expected ~47.9%. Services revenue ($30.739 billion) and iPad revenue ($6.191 billion) missed expectations, marking the only two weak points. However, the next-quarter guidance was soft: management warned that supply chain constraints (advanced process chips, memory costs) would "significantly intensify" pressure on iPhone, iPad, and Mac, with total revenue growth guidance of 9%-11%, below the consensus estimate of ~12%, causing shares to slump after the report. This also marked the last earnings call before CEO Tim Cook steps down.
Data in a Minute
Revenue of $109.417 billion, beating expectations of $108.853 billion
EPS of $2.02, beating expectations of $1.89
iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all hit record highs for the June quarter
Gross margin of 50.1% (including ~2 percentage points tariff rebate benefit), ~48.1% excluding that, still above expectations of ~47.9%
Services revenue of $30.739 billion, missing expectations of $31.359 billion; iPad revenue of $6.191 billion, missing expectations of $6.890 billion
Mac revenue of $10.352 billion, significantly beating expectations of $8.619 billion
Next-quarter guidance: revenue growth of 9%-11% (below consensus ~12%); gross margin guidance of 47%-48%
MSX View
This earnings report carries significant information beneath the surface: iPhone, Mac, and Services all hit record highs for the June quarter, showing solid momentum in core businesses. The 50.1% gross margin looks impressive at first glance, but breaking it down, roughly 2 percentage points come from a one-time tariff rebate benefit; excluding that, it's 48.1%—still above expectations, but not as striking as the headline number suggests. What truly dampened sentiment was the next-quarter guidance. Management directly flagged that supply chain constraints from advanced process chips and memory costs would "significantly intensify," and the 9%-11% revenue growth guidance clearly fell short of the market's prior ~12% expectation. That's the core reason the stock slumped despite the "record-breaking" report. Looking ahead, whether supply tightness is a "sweet burden" of overly strong demand or a genuine drag on Q4 holiday-season shipments is the key signal worth tracking next.
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Risk Disclaimer: Macroeconomic and US stock market conditions are highly volatile. This content is for academic and research observation purposes only by the MSX Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.
