Bitcoin correction signal confirmed, HYPE long-short divergence intensifies | Special Analysis

This week, Bitcoin's daily-level A-wave rebound likely peaked on July 21, with the market transitioning into a B-wave adjustment phase. Meanwhile, HYPE is at a critical battleground around the $60–$63.5 resistance zone, with the path forward remaining unclear. The following is a multi-timeframe structural review of BTC and HYPE this week, operational strategies, and a market validation of last week's short-term trades, for reference.

Core Views on This Week's Trading:

• BTC Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis (Details in Part 1)

• BTC Price Forecast & Medium/Short-term Strategy This Week (Details in Part 2)

• HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis (Details in Part 3)

• HYPE Price Forecast & Short-term Strategy This Week (Details in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Strategy & Core Views:

• BTC Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending the current daily-level first segment (A-wave) rebound near $67,300. This forecast was accurately validated by the market.

• BTC Short-term Trade Results: Bitcoin completed one short-term short trade last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving a profit of approximately 1.70%. (Details in Part 5)

• HYPE Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounded at the beginning of the week, it could be seen as a retest confirmation after breaking below the key support zone ($62–$63.5). Currently, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.

1. Bitcoin Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis

1. Bitcoin Daily-level Structure Analysis: (Based on analysis from May 6 onwards)

Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

① As shown in (Figure 1): Since the adjustment that began from the May 6 high of $82,850, the daily chart has presented a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

② From the daily structure analysis: The first segment (A-wave) rebound that started from the July 1 low of $57,820 likely ended on July 21, reaching a rebound height of $66,955 during the period.

③ If the A-wave rebound has indeed ended, the market is currently undergoing the B-wave adjustment phase. After the B-wave adjustment concludes (the prerequisite being that the adjustment low does not break below $57,820), a potential C-wave rebound may follow. This C-wave rebound could challenge the resistance zone near $67,300 again.

2. Bitcoin Hourly-level Structure In-depth Analysis: (Using 4-hour timeframe)

Figure 2 Bitcoin 4-hour Candlestick Chart

① Within the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound from the July 1 low (Endpoint 44, ~$57,820) to July 21 (Endpoint 51, ~$66,955) is clearly divided into seven segments (44-45) to (50-51) in structure. Segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment"中枢 E.

② According to structural analysis: Comparing the entry segment (44-45) of中枢 E with its exit segment (50-51) clearly shows that the rebound momentum of the exit segment is significantly weaker than the entry segment, indicating a momentum divergence between the two. Therefore, the rebound starting from "Endpoint 44" may have ended at "Endpoint 51," making the probability of a subsequent adjustment significant.

③ The adjustment that began from "Endpoint 51" has run two segments: (51-52) and (52-53). The current movement can be seen as a retest confirmation phase after the price broke below $65,700.

2. Bitcoin Price Forecast & Operational Strategy This Week

1. BTC Price Forecast This Week:
Core Views for This Week:
① Monitor the test results of the price retesting the area near $65,700.
② Monitor the support strength when the price probes the $60,950–$61,500 zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $65,700–$67,300 (Previous key resistance area)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500–$71,000 (Previous key resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $63,700 (Previous key support)
• Second Support Zone: $60,950–$61,500 (Previous key support)
• Third Support Level: Near $57,820 (Previous key support)

4. This Week’s Operational Strategy (Excluding unexpected news impacts):
① Medium-term Strategy:

Figure 3 Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Long-Short Channel," confirming the market structure has turned to a bearish dominant pattern. According to the established trading plan: when the price rebounded near $67,000 and showed signs of stagnation, simultaneously observing top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, we strictly executed the strategy, increasing our medium-term short position to approximately 40%.

② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% position, set stop-loss points, and seek "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute timeframe as the operating cycle).

③ For short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market evolution, we have drafted two specific operational plans (A/B).

Plan A: Tentative Shorting in Strong Resistance Zone.

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700–$67,300 zone and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of about 30%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price adjusts to near key support levels, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

Plan B: Light Long Position in Strong Support Zone.

• Entry: If the price adjusts and shows signs of stabilization above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of about 30%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to near key resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

3. HYPE Hourly-level Structure Analysis

Figure 4 HYPE_4-hour Candlestick Chart

1. As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE's adjustment from its July 7 high of $72.97 to present (Endpoint 61 to Endpoint 71) can be subdivided into a ten-segment adjustment structure on the 4-hour chart. Segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" downward中枢.

2. The market is currently running the (70-71) rebound segment. Two possible scenarios may follow:
Scenario One: $56.47 marks the end of the adjustment, initiating a recovery. The adjustment starting from July 7 ($72.97) ended on July 24 ($56.47), and the current rebound is a technical recovery phase against that downtrend.
Scenario Two: Forming a "Downward中枢" then continuing to test the bottom. A new "downward中枢" is currently being formed, after which the market will continue its original downtrend, breaking below the previous low of $56.47 to seek further support.

3. In summary, in the short term, close attention should be paid to the test results of the $60–$63.5 resistance zone and the defensive strength of the support near $56.47. The outcome of the battle at these two price levels will be key to determining which scenario the market will follow.

4. HYPE Price Forecast & Short-term Strategy This Week

1. HYPE Price Forecast This Week:
① Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $60–$63.5
• Second Resistance Zone: $68–$69.5
• Third Resistance Level: Near $72.97
② Key Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $56.47;
• Second Support Zone: $52–$55;
Core View for This Week: Closely monitor the test results of price against the $60–$63.5 resistance zone and the support strength near $56.47.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy This Week: Short-term operations this week: If the price rebounds to the $60–$63.5 zone and emits clear adjustment signals, investors are advised to consider entering light short positions, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline, with position size controlled within 20%.

5. Bitcoin Short-term Trade Profit & Loss Review

Strictly following the operational plan and based on signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term short trade last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 1.70%.

1. Short-term Trade Record: (See Table 1) Summary of Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details:

Table 1

2. Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:
a. When the price rebounded near $67,000 and showed signs of stagnation, the candlestick formed a "Top Divergence" pattern;
b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (White Dot + Green Dot), followed by the signal band (Blue) breaking below the skyline (Green), emitting a bearish signal;
Resonance was observed with the adjustment signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model." Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $66,319.
• Exit Strategy:
a. When the price dropped near $64,500 and showed signs of stabilization, the candlestick formed a "Bottom Divergence" pattern;
b. The "Spread Trading Model" continuously triggered bottom warning signals (Red Dots), followed by the signal band (Orange-Yellow) breaking above the horizon (Magenta), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model";
Therefore, we fully closed the position near $65,192.
• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 1.70%.

3. Short-term Trade Illustration

Figure 5 BTC_60-minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Reminders:​​

1. On Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%​​: Move the stop-loss to the profit 1% level.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every 1% additional profit made by the price, move the stop-loss up by 1% simultaneously to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets are dynamic and ever-changing; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analysis models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serve solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risk, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based solely on this.