Bitcoin’s decline continues as volatility persists, HYPE repeatedly tests critical support | Special Analysis

In last week's report, based on Bitcoin's daily-level trend structure, we clearly proposed the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the rebound height will determine the subsequent market direction." We also issued a warning for HYPE, stating that "the probability of a correction near Endpoint 61 ($72.97) is significant." This week's market trajectory has further validated the effectiveness of the aforementioned analytical framework: Bitcoin completed a multi-segment rebound as expected and touched key resistance levels, while HYPE encountered resistance and retreated around $72.97 as anticipated, with a maximum decline of 9.39%.

Building on this, this week's report will provide a detailed breakdown of the BTC and HYPE market evolution paths and specific trading strategies, incorporating the latest 4-hour and daily-level trend structures and signals from our proprietary quantitative model.

Core Trading Viewpoints for This Week:

• Analysis of BTC's Multi-Cycle Trend Structure (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC Price Forecast and Mid/Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 2)

• Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Trend Structure (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• Validation of BTC Price Forecast: In last week's article, we clearly stated that Bitcoin had entered the daily-level oversold rebound phase and emphasized that the height of this rebound would determine the subsequent market direction. The current market trajectory is developing in the direction we predicted.

• Validation of HYPE Price Forecast: In last week's article, we pointed out that the probability of HYPE undergoing a correction near "Endpoint 61" ($72.97) was significant. Currently, the market movement is highly consistent with our assessment.

1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Previous Cycle Trend Structure

1.1 Analysis of Bitcoin's Daily-Level Trend Structure (Based on price action after May 6)

Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in Figure 1: The correction that started from the high of $82,850 on May 6 has presented a four-segment correction structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

② After hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1, the market is currently running the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the $64,500 resistance level. As clearly stated in the last weekly review: if this rebound first breaks through the $64,500 resistance, and then surpasses the $65,700 resistance (optimal), then when the (3-4) rebound segment concludes and retreats, the probability of finding support and stabilizing above the low of $57,820 increases significantly. This implies a subsequent stabilization and rebound.

③ On the daily timeframe, through the overlap of the three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the price has initially formed a "descending consolidation zone" (as shown in the chart). Based on the analysis above, the market is highly likely to enter a "consolidation zone extension" phase, meaning this "consolidation zone" will be composed of five or even more overlapping segments. This suggests the short-term market is entering a pattern of oscillating consolidation.

2. Deep Dive into Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure (Using 4-Hour Chart as Analysis Cycle)

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-Line Chart

Figure 2

① On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the low of $57,820 on July 1 has clearly presented a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), (46-47).

② According to the current trend structure analysis, the price is running the (46-47) rebound segment. As the price creates a local high "Endpoint 47," our proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a clear bearish divergence signal, and the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of an hourly technical correction occurring here is extremely high. If the price retreats as expected, pay attention to the support effectiveness near "Endpoint 46." If a stabilization signal appears at this level, another rebound is likely to follow, with the primary upside target pointing towards $65,700. If the rebound momentum is strong, the next significant target is $67,300.

2. Bitcoin's Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week (July 13 - July 19)

2.1 BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

This week's core viewpoint: Focus on the price action around the key resistance level of $64,700. If a correction occurs as expected, closely observe the validity of support when the price retreats towards $61,500. A stabilization signal at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.

2.2 Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $64,700 area (Previous consolidation zone upper boundary)

• Second Resistance Zone: $65,700 to $67,300 area (Previous key resistance zone)

• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500 to $71,000 area (Previous key resistance zone)

2.3 Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $60,950 to $62,000 area (Previous key support zone)

• Second Support Zone: Around $57,820 (Previous key support level)

• Third Support Zone: Around $55,000 (Previous key support level)

2.4 Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Sudden News Events):

① Mid-Term Strategy: Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern.

• Maintain the current mid-term short position at around 20%.

• If the price rallies to the $65,700 to $67,300 zone and shows signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the mid-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-losses, and look for "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute charts as operation cycles).

③ To dynamically respond to complex market evolution in short-term trading, we have formulated three specific operation plans (A/B/C) in advance.

• Plan A: Tentatively go long if support holds in the $60,950 to $62,000 zone. • Entry: If the price corrects from around $64,700 and shows stabilization signals upon reaching the $60,950 to $62,000 zone, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, aggressive investors can establish a long position of around 15%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rallies to key resistance levels, combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Tentatively go short in a strong resistance zone. • Entry: If the price rallies to the $65,700 to $67,300 zone and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price corrects to key support levels, combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

• Plan C: Lightly go long in a strong support zone. • Entry: The price breaks above $65,700 but then retreats after meeting resistance. If a stabilization signal appears above the previous low of $57,820 during the correction, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rallies to key resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

3. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Trend Structure

HYPE 4-Hour K-Line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, HYPE's move from the low of $58.5 on June 25 (Endpoint 54) to the high of $72.97 on July 7 (Endpoint 61) can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Among these, segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap, forming an "upward consolidation zone."

2. As pointed out in the last weekly review: Since "Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61" constitutes a complete seven-segment upward structure, and top warning signals were triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61" respectively, caution was advised regarding short-term correction risks. Last week, the market indeed encountered resistance and corrected near $72.97 as expected. During the (61-62) correction segment, the maximum drawdown was approximately 9.39%.

3. According to the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently running the (61-62) correction segment. "Endpoint 62" has broken below the previous low "Endpoint 60" ($68.16), which initially damages the structure established since the rise from "Endpoint 54." 

4. HYPE's Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

4.1 HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $68 to $69.5 zone

• Second Resistance Level: Around $72.97

• Third Resistance Level: Around $76.94

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $65.5

• Second Support Zone: $60.5 to $61.5 zone

This Week's Core Viewpoint on HYPE: Focus on the termination point of the current correction "Endpoint 62" and whether the subsequent rebound can break through the $72.97 resistance level.

4.2 HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: Strategy One: If, after the (61-62) correction concludes, the price rebounds and breaks through the $72.97 resistance, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position, as it approaches the strong historical high resistance zone of $76.94.

Strategy Two: Conversely, if, after the (61-62) correction concludes, the price rebounds but fails to reach $72.97, it is recommended to establish a short position on rallies. Strict stop-losses must be set for this operation, and the position size should be controlled within 30%.

5. Special Reminder:

1. Upon Entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When Profit Reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in the price, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve solely as a personal trading journal. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. Please do not make decisions based solely on this content.