美伊冲突致油流中断，股市核心问题浮现，能源冲击会否终结风险资产行情
Market attention on the disruption of oil flows due to the US-Iran conflict extends beyond the recent rise in crude oil prices. The real issue affecting the pricing of stocks, bonds, and crypto assets is whether this energy supply shock will reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even consider further tightening.
In July 2026, the US-Iran military conflict escalated again, leading to a significant drop in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while Red Sea shipping routes also faced threats from expanded Houthi blockades. Brent crude rose above $93 per barrel on July 22, nearing six-week highs. For the stock market, the core question has shifted from how long the conflict will last to whether corporate earnings and valuations can withstand the combined pressure of higher energy costs, higher bond yields, and weaker consumer demand.
If the oil flow disruption is short-lived, the stock market may continue to rely on tech company earnings and AI investment for resilience. However, if the disruption lasts for weeks or longer, investors will have to reassess the combination of inflation, interest rates, and global growth, potentially altering the pricing foundation for risk assets.
Key Takeaways
The US-Iran conflict has significantly reduced oil and gas transport capacity through the Strait of Hormuz, with some tankers suspending passage or altering routes.
Brent crude rose to $93.85 per barrel on July 22, 2026, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $87.27.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply, making it one of the most crucial transport nodes in the global energy market.
The core issue for the stock market is not a single day's oil price increase, but whether the energy shock will reignite inflation and push up bond yields.
Sectors like airlines, transportation, chemicals, consumer goods, and high-valuation tech stocks may face increasing pressure, while energy, defense, and some commodity companies could benefit relatively.
Bitcoin may be impacted by risk asset sell-offs in the short term and cannot simply be considered a stable safe-haven asset in a wartime environment.
Going forward, investors should focus on actual oil flows, tanker insurance, US inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and corporate earnings guidance.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Flow Disruption: Moving from Risk Scenario to Reality
The market impact of the US-Iran conflict is no longer limited to military actions themselves. As the US reinstates a naval blockade against Iran-related shipping and Iran continues to attack targets in the Gulf region, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has notably decreased.
According to Reuters' tracking of Strait of Hormuz shipping, only three commodity transport ships passed through the strait on July 16, marking the lowest single-day level since May. No Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or LNG tankers completed the transit that day, with some tankers anchoring or turning around near the Gulf of Oman.
This means the market's worry is no longer just whether Iran will officially announce a closure of the strait, but whether ship owners, insurers, and energy traders are already proactively reducing transit due to security risks.
Reduced Vessel Traffic Alone Can Create a Supply Shock
The strait does not need to be completely closed for global oil flows to be significantly impacted. If ship owners perceive an increased risk of attacks, seizures, or military miscalculations, tankers may delay departures, change routes, or demand higher freight rates.
Insurance companies may also raise war risk premiums, shorten coverage periods, or refuse to insure certain high-risk voyages. The end result is that even if oil fields are still producing, crude may not reach refineries as scheduled.
Therefore, the supply shock may first manifest in transport timeliness, spot premiums, and refinery feedstock composition, before being reflected in official export data.
Red Sea Route Faces Second Source of Pressure
The risk is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's Houthi group has threatened a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia-related vessels and may disrupt shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
An AP News report on Houthi shipping threats notes that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait handles about 12% of global trade. Even if the Houthis cannot fully blockade the waterway, sporadic drone, missile, or mine attacks could force vessels to reroute around the southern tip of Africa.
If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are constrained simultaneously, Middle Eastern energy exports will face transport pressure from both east and west. The global market would then need to consider not just a temporary single-strait disruption, but a correlated disruption across the entire Middle Eastern energy logistics network.
Rising Oil Prices Are Changing the Market's Macro Assumptions
According to Reuters' July 22 energy market report, Brent crude rose 3.12% to $93.85 per barrel, and WTI crude rose 3.47% to $87.27, both reaching their highest levels since June 11.
A rise in oil prices does not automatically lead to a bear market for stocks. What truly determines the market's direction is the duration of high oil prices, the scale of the supply disruption, and whether businesses and consumers can absorb the added costs.
Market Previously Relied on Disinflation Logic
One of the stock market's key supports has been the gradual decline in US inflation, allowing the Fed to stop raising rates and keep the door open for cuts if the economy slows.
An energy supply shock could disrupt this logic. Rising crude oil prices first affect gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, then spread to a broader range of goods and services via logistics, plastics, chemicals, agriculture, and manufacturing costs.
If investors begin to believe energy inflation is persistent, the bond market may raise long-term inflation compensation, pushing US Treasury yields higher. High-valuation stocks would then face pressure not only from potential earnings downgrades but also from valuation multiple compression.
High Oil Prices Could Create an Environment of Growth and Inflation
The worst combination for the stock market is not just rising oil prices, but rising oil prices simultaneously weakening consumer spending and corporate profits.
Households need to allocate more income to fuel, electricity, and transportation, potentially reducing spending on other discretionary items. Companies must choose between raising prices, compressing profit margins, or cutting costs.
This environment could create mild stagflationary pressure. Economic growth slows, but inflation does not decline quickly, making it difficult for the Fed to provide support through rate cuts. This combination is particularly unfavorable for stocks that already reflect high growth expectations.
The Core Question for the Stock Market: Can Earnings Offset Valuation Pressure?
The real test of the US-Iran conflict for the stock market is whether corporate earnings growth can continue to outpace the rise in financing and input costs.
Previously, some major stock indices could withstand geopolitical shocks because of strong earnings from large tech companies, continued growth in AI capital expenditure, and resilient bank performance. However, if oil prices stay above $90 per barrel, the market needs to reassess whether these positive factors can continue to offset macro pressures.
Tech Stocks Are Not Immune to the Interest Rate Environment
Large tech companies are not typically seen as direct victims of oil costs, but their valuations are highly sensitive to long-term interest rates.
If energy prices push up inflation expectations, the market may reduce bets on rate cuts, and 10-year Treasury yields could rise. A higher discount rate for future cash flows directly lowers the theoretical value of high-valuation tech companies.
AI infrastructure also requires massive data centers, electricity, copper, natural gas, and cooling equipment. Rising energy costs not only affect valuations but could also increase the actual cost of AI capital expenditure.
Therefore, whether tech stocks can continue to lead the market will depend on whether earnings growth is sufficient to cover higher discount rates and infrastructure costs.
Cyclical Sectors Face Margin Tests
Industries like airlines, shipping, logistics, automotive, chemicals, and industrials are sensitive to fuel and raw material prices.
Some companies can pass on costs through fuel surcharges or price adjustments, but there is usually a time lag. In highly competitive or weak-demand sectors, fully passing on costs to customers may be difficult.
Retail and consumer service companies may also be indirectly affected. As household spending on energy and transport rises, consumption of dining, travel, entertainment, and non-essentials may be squeezed.
The Rise in Energy Stocks Has Limits
Rising oil prices typically benefit upstream oil producers and some oilfield service companies. Improved cash flow can support dividends, share buybacks, and capital expenditure.
However, if rising oil prices ultimately trigger a global economic slowdown, expectations for energy demand will also fall. Refiners, petrochemical companies, and firms heavily reliant on specific routes could even face pressure due to feedstock and logistics mismatches.
Thus, the energy sector may be a relative winner in the short term, but not all energy-related stocks will benefit equally.
Different Markets and Sectors Will See Clear Divergence
An energy shock does not affect all countries and assets equally. Crude oil import dependence, currency stability, fiscal subsidy capacity, and industrial structure will determine the actual impact on different markets.
Asian Crude Importers Face More Direct Pressure
India, Japan, South Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia are highly dependent on imported energy. Rising oil prices can widen trade deficits, increase pressure for currency depreciation, and fuel domestic inflation.
A Reuters report on global markets on July 13 showed that after the US-Iran conflict escalated, oil prices surged nearly 9% in a single day, putting pressure on global stock markets and pushing bond yields higher. The market reaction indicates that energy-importing countries not only face rising corporate costs but may also simultaneously experience capital outflows and currency pressure.
The Indian market is particularly sensitive to oil price changes, as energy import costs directly impact inflation, fiscal spending, and the current account. For governments needing to stabilize fuel prices through subsidies, sustained high oil prices can also increase fiscal burdens.
The US Market Has Internal Sector Hedging
The US is both a major oil consumer and a significant global oil and gas producer. High oil prices squeeze consumer purchasing power but can boost revenues for shale producers and energy service companies.
This provides the US stock market with some internal sector hedging capability. However, since major indices are heavily weighted towards tech and consumer companies, a rise in the energy sector may not be sufficient to offset a decline in large-cap growth stock valuations.
Europe Faces Dual Constraints of Energy Security and Growth
Europe has adjusted its energy mix somewhat following the previous natural gas crisis, but it remains sensitive to imported energy and global shipping.
Simultaneously rising oil prices, gas prices, and transport insurance could again increase industrial costs in Europe. Sectors like automotive, chemicals, aviation, and manufacturing may face higher pressure than their US counterparts.
If the European Central Bank has to balance between weak growth and resurgent inflation, the risk premium on European stocks could rise further.
Which Leading Indicators Should Investors Track?
Military news can trigger short-term price volatility, but the medium-term market direction will be determined by quantifiable oil flows, costs, and financial conditions.
Actual Vessel Traffic Counts
The market first needs to observe the daily number of crude oil tankers, LNG carriers, and product tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
If vessel traffic recovers within a few days, the risk premium in oil prices may decline rapidly. If traffic remains persistently low, even without a formal blockade, the supply disruption may gradually reflect in refinery inventories and spot markets.
Tanker Freight Rates and War Risk Premiums
Freight and insurance costs may reflect supply chain stress earlier than benchmark oil prices.
If tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia or Europe continue to rise, it indicates that physical traders are still paying extra costs for transport risk. Even if Brent crude falls in the short term, terminal energy costs may not decline synchronously.
Crude Oil Term Structure
The extent to which spot prices are higher than forward prices can reflect market judgment on short-term supply tightness.
If the premium on near-month contracts widens, it suggests refiners and traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery. Conversely, if forward prices rise but the spot structure does not tighten significantly, some of the increase may be more attributable to risk premiums and financial trading.
US Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations
The most critical transmission channel for the stock market remains the bond market. Investors should focus on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields, implied expectations from TIPS, and the market's repricing of the Fed's policy path.
If oil prices rise but long-term inflation expectations remain stable, the stock market may absorb the shock. If yields and inflation expectations rise simultaneously, high-valuation assets will face significantly increased pressure.
Investors can track real-time price changes for Bitcoin and major crypto assets on MEXC, while assessing cross-asset risk appetite changes in conjunction with crude oil, USD, and stock markets.
Can the Crypto Market Serve as a Safe Haven During an Energy Shock?
The US-Iran conflict and oil flow disruption will also impact Bitcoin and other digital assets, but the transmission channels are not singular.
Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap, leading some investors to view it as a hedge against currency debasement and long-term inflation. However, during sudden geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin is typically still affected by liquidity contraction and risk asset sell-offs.
Bitcoin Acts More Like a High-Liquidity Risk Asset in the Short Term
When rising oil prices push up the US dollar, Treasury yields, and market volatility, leveraged investors may need to reduce risk exposure. Bitcoin, trading 24/7 with high liquidity, often becomes one of the assets investors sell to quickly raise cash.
Therefore, in the initial phase of an escalating conflict, Bitcoin may fall in tandem with tech stocks, rather than immediately behaving like a gold-like safe haven.
Only when the market begins to interpret the conflict as leading to long-term fiscal expansion, currency debasement, or capital controls is Bitcoin's scarcity narrative likely to regain support.
Demand for Stablecoins May Receive Structural Support
Increased energy trade, cross-border settlements, and local currency volatility may boost demand for USD-pegged stablecoins in certain markets.
Stablecoins do not eliminate risks related to issuers, reserve assets, or regulation, but their 24/7 transfer capability can provide a supplemental channel when traditional bank settlements are constrained. Geopolitical conflict may therefore simultaneously depress crypto asset prices while increasing demand for stablecoin infrastructure.
Altcoins Face Higher Liquidity Risk
If an energy shock leads to tighter global financial conditions, capital typically first exits assets with lower liquidity and valuations dependent on forward narratives.
Bitcoin and Ethereum may attract relatively concentrated capital, but small-to-mid-cap tokens, leveraged protocols, and high-yield strategies face greater liquidation pressure. Investors should not infer that the entire crypto market will benefit from geopolitical risk simply because Bitcoin has potential anti-inflation properties.
Exclusive Insights from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team
The truly important aspect of the US-Iran conflict disrupting oil flows is not whether Brent crude breaks $90 on a given trading day, but that the global market's previously relied-upon narrative of low inflation and a soft landing is being tested by reality.
Recently, the stock market could tolerate war, tariffs, and fiscal risks because investors believed inflation would eventually decline, corporate earnings could grow, and the Fed retained room for rate cuts. If energy transport is blocked for an extended period, these three assumptions could be challenged simultaneously. Corporate costs rise, consumer demand weakens, and central bank policy space narrows.
The market may be misinterpreting the situation by simply viewing rising oil prices as good for energy stocks or bad for airlines. The real transmission core lies in the bond market. If energy prices do not push up long-term inflation expectations, the impact of the US-Iran conflict on stock valuations may be limited. If oil prices, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields rise together, valuations may adjust preemptively, even if current corporate earnings remain solid.
Going forward, investors should focus not on the number of military actions, but on actual transport volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker insurance costs, the Brent crude term structure, and US inflation expectations. These indicators help determine whether the conflict has transitioned from a news-driven shock to a sustained economic shock.
For the crypto market, the biggest takeaway is that Bitcoin's macro asset property is strengthening, but this property does not equate to stable safe-haven status. Bitcoin may benefit long-term from currency debasement concerns, yet simultaneously fall with tech stocks during short-term liquidity shocks. Cross-asset investors need to distinguish between long-term scarcity logic and short-term
