Polymarket's hardest prediction is... when the POLY airdrop will arrive
- Key Takeaway: Polymarket's "World Cup Winner" prediction event set a new platform record for trading volume, establishing sports markets as a new growth engine. Simultaneously, the platform quietly raised fees to boost revenue. However, its POLY token airdrop plan continues to be delayed due to compliance concerns and shifting priorities, sparking community controversy.
- Key Elements:
- The "World Cup Winner" prediction event recorded a trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the $3.686 billion of the "2024 US Presidential Election" to become Polymarket's largest single prediction market ever.
- During the six weeks of the World Cup, Polymarket's football (soccer) category accumulated a total trading volume of $8.5 billion, four times the combined total of all other sports categories in the same period.
- On July 10th, Polymarket raised the Taker fee coefficient for sports markets from 0.03 to 0.05, increasing trading costs by up to 66.7% (maximum fee per 100 shares rose from $0.75 to $1.25).
- Sports market fees have been raised from the lowest tier to the same level as categories like Economy and Culture, now only lower than the cryptocurrency market ($1.75 per 100 shares). The platform is increasing revenue by gradually expanding the scope of fee application.
- An official Polymarket-associated account deleted a tweet hinting at an airdrop, making the community highly sensitive to the possibility of the POLY airdrop being canceled. However, the platform officially stated, "No airdrop plans have been announced yet."
- The community speculates two reasons for the airdrop delay: first, waiting for a more suitable compliance window to avoid regulatory risks; second, as the platform has become profitable, its reliance on token incentives has decreased, and the airdrop priority has been pushed back.
Original: Odaily 星球日报 (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
Yesterday, the "World Cup Winner" prediction event was settled with a final trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the $3.686 billion of the "2024 US Presidential Election Winner" to become Polymarket's highest-volume single prediction event ever.
Furthermore, during the six weeks of the World Cup, Polymarket's football vertical accumulated a nominal trading volume of $8.5 billion, which is 4 times the total trading volume of all other sports combined over the same period.
The 2024 US election brought Polymarket into the mainstream spotlight, while the 2026 World Cup propelled it into the higher-frequency sports market. With $8.5 billion in six weeks and $4.32 billion in a single market, Polymarket has not only set new records but also found a traffic engine that runs faster than elections.
Capitalizing on World Cup Traffic, Polymarket "Quietly" Raises Fees for the Sports Category
On July 10, as the World Cup entered its final phase, Polymarket increased transaction fees for its sports market.
This adjustment was not announced directly to regular users but was recorded in the platform's developer Changelog. The Taker fee coefficient for the sports category was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, while the Maker rebate rate was reduced from 25% to 15%.
The change from 0.03 to 0.05 seems minor, but the actual transaction cost has increased by nearly 70%. For example, when purchasing 100 shares of a sports event at a share price of $0.50, the fee is at its maximum. Before the adjustment, users paid a maximum of $0.75; after the adjustment, the maximum fee rose to $1.25. As the share price approaches $0.01 or $0.99, the fee decreases symmetrically towards both ends. The specific distribution is shown in the table below.
Consequently, the sports category is no longer part of Polymarket's lowest fee tier. Previously, alongside categories like Politics, Finance, and Technology, it belonged to a lower-cost trading category. After the adjustment, the maximum fee per 100 shares has risen to $1.25, placing it in the same tier as Economy, Culture, and Weather categories, only lower than the Cryptocurrency market's $1.75.
Looking back over the past six months, Polymarket's fee scope has been quietly expanding.
In January 2026, Polymarket first implemented Taker fees for its 15-minute cryptocurrency market. In February, the fee scope expanded to include certain college basketball and Serie A markets. By March, all newly listed crypto markets began charging fees. Following the introduction of Fee Structure V2 in late March, categories like Politics, Finance, Economy, Culture, Weather, and Technology were gradually included.
For the platform, once user habits are established, raising fees hasn't led to a mass exodus of users but allows the same trading volume to generate more revenue.
The POLY Airdrop Controversy Reignites: How Much Longer Must Users Wait?
Recently, the community discovered that Polymarket's affiliated account, Polymarket Traders, deleted a tweet posted on May 13. The original tweet was previously interpreted by the community as a hint towards the POLY airdrop. Following the deletion, many users began re-examining the account's historical content, reigniting discussions around "whether the airdrop has changed."
The market's sensitivity stems from the fact that Polymarket issuing a token is no longer baseless speculation. In October 2025, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, explicitly stated in a podcast: "There will be a token, and there will be an airdrop." He also mentioned that Polymarket's primary goal at the time was to re-enter the US market, and the token plan would proceed after the US business was established, praising Hyperliquid's token distribution method.
This statement once led the community to believe that POLY was only a matter of time. Subsequently, trading volume, market-making size, and active days were considered by many users as potential airdrop weighting factors. Even though the platform never announced snapshot dates or distribution rules, users were willing to continue trading, waiting for the token distribution plan to materialize.
The problem is that while the US business has progressed and the highly popular World Cup has ended, POLY still has no announced timeline. Observant users noticed that in the Help Center section of Polymarket's official website, a recently added note states that the platform "has not announced any plans for an airdrop or token generation event" and warns users to be cautious of scams conducted under the guise of an airdrop. This doesn't necessarily mean POLY is canceled, but for users who have been waiting, the question is no longer *if* Polymarket will issue a token, but *how much longer* this "future" will be delayed.
Currently, the community has two main theories for the delay. One view is that Polymarket is waiting for a more suitable compliance window. The platform is still expanding its US operations, and launching a token along with an airdrop could introduce additional regulatory complications. Before a formal plan is finalized, deleting overly direct hints from affiliated accounts might simply be a move to tighten external messaging.
The other view posits that Polymarket no longer feels an urgent need to launch a token, potentially becoming the next OpenSea. In the past, the platform relied on airdrop expectations to attract users, increase trading volume, and supplement liquidity. Now, Polymarket boasts a massive user base and real revenue, with fees continually increasing. As the platform's dependence on a token diminishes, the priority for POLY naturally might be pushed further down the line.
Previously, the community discussed *how* POLY would be airdropped and *whether* trading volume would count towards the weight. Now, the discussion has shifted to *how much longer* the wait will be and what the next anticipated milestone might be. Polymarket, which launches countless prediction events, has yet to provide a settlement date for its own airdrop.
