Citrini Research: Attention Diverted by AI, These Assets Have Dropped Into Golden Value Territory

Original Author: Citrini Research

Original Compilation: TechFlow

Guide: While analysts across the market are busy calculating how much HBM and Taiwanese glass the data centers are short of, the truly scarce resource is actually "attention" itself. Three years of AI narratives have led to overcrowded capital, yet the rest of the world is still turning: for instance, the life sciences cycle has bottomed out, aging-population real estate is booming, and sports venues are selling out. These forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now may not lie within the AGI timeline, but in those "small themes" that no one is modeling.

Note: The following is a compilation of the core content from the latest Citrini Research report. The original is paid content; this article is based on its public summary and multiple sources.

Attention Tax

Did you know? Computing power, electricity, HBM, NAND, concrete and transformers for building data centers, that special Taiwanese glass, and the alphabet soup of technologies that convert light into data—all are in short supply.

Yes, of course you do. But among the shortages caused by AI, there's an even scarcer input: attention.

Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower (or analyst token budget) has been pulled towards a single trade. We feel this deeply; we've spent most of the past three years tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.

But shortsightedness has a cost, and we think it's time to look wider.

The AI trade—at the very least—is already crowded, even if it's correct. We see a high risk of "AI fatigue" and are likely to see some degree of capital rotation towards things people seem to have stopped caring about.

The mechanism we care about is simple: capital floods into one theme, and peripheral assets become underweight. That in itself is interesting. These assets are also under-modeled and overlooked.

We mentioned this when discussing the life sciences cycle—in our view, that cycle has bottomed out. Five years ago, we would have seen these stocks bounce off lows, pricing in an upcycle ahead of time. But now they're wallowing at 52-week lows because no one wants to shift risk into the destocking recovery phase when "DRAM is the bottleneck."

The world keeps turning. The gap between forgotten expectations and changing reality has always been where thematic investing makes money. Attention is a finite resource, but it can shift quickly in a typical momentum reversal. Sometimes when it shifts, it brings a new focus into investor consciousness, even if momentum swings back to the upside.

We are revisiting our "small themes"—trend and catalyst-driven trades that aren't decade-long market disruption stories. Instead, they are interesting, low-radar narratives in less hot sectors that could surprise. Five themes, none of which require you to have a view on AGI timelines or tokenomics. Baby boomers moving into nursing homes. Sports venues selling out. A two-decade exchange monopoly facing its first real competition. Fintech recovery. And airline stocks, where our two favorite names have been punished for eighteen months for reasons completely unrelated to their profitability.

Our macro view is that the market will continue to move higher, but we will also see noticeably more 10-15% sharp declines, driven more by positioning than by fundamentals. This means we should hold onto semiconductor names, but perhaps not let them be the only ones on the map. Right now, we have been gradually trimming our AI allocation over the past month because everyone with internet access is wearing a "bottleneck investor" hat, and we are increasingly interested in what remains after the "AI Dutch disease."

Theme 1: Airline Stocks, Punished for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability

Citrini is bullish on Delta and United, a call that has held for over two years. In November 2024, they published an analysis of the "structural reset" in the airline industry, arguing these two mainline carriers would be the winners.

Two years later, Citrini remains bullish. The report points out that the decline in these two stocks over the past 18 months was almost entirely driven by macro factors—first tariff-induced inflation fears, then the Iran war pushing up oil prices—none of which had anything to do with whether the airlines themselves are profitable.

According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy moves past the shadows of tariff inflation and oil price shocks, the growth prospects for these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is exacerbating divergence. Mainline airlines are not only not resisting this divergence but are actively embracing it—tilting towards premiumization to boost per-passenger revenue.

Additionally, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a short-term catalyst, with international travel demand from global events directly benefiting airline stocks.

Theme 2: Senior Housing, 80+ Population to Grow 56% in Ten Years, Facilities Far from Enough

Citrini's second theme points to a sector that isn't sexy but is certainly certain: senior housing real estate.

The core data is very solid: the US population aged 80 and over is expected to grow by more than 56% over the next decade, far outpacing the roughly 5% growth of the total population. In 2026 alone, one million new households with individuals aged 80+ will be added, a figure set to double to two million by 2029.

Supply on the facility side is lagging far behind. Citrini notes this sector is largely overlooked because it's not flashy—it lacks the allure of AI and semiconductors. But baby boomers are collectively entering advanced age. This is a pure demographic-driven trend, independent of any policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.

According to Business Insider, Citrini names three specific assets: senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and nursing home operator Brookdale Senior Living.

Theme 3: Live Entertainment, Best Asset Class of the Past Decade, Outperforming Tech Stocks

Citrini calls live entertainment the best-performing asset class of the past decade, even outperforming tech stocks.

The report's core thesis is: "Being there" is itself becoming a luxury good. Consumers are willing to pay a high premium for live presence. Sports franchises, concerts, fighting events, and even movie theaters are all benefiting from this desire for "real presence." Citrini writes: "Sports franchises, and more broadly all offline events, are benefiting from people's desire to 'be there'. This brings a greater opportunity to monetize through attendance, premiumization, and promotion."

According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentions three companies:

TKO Group, the parent company of WWE and UFC, is highlighted for its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to movie theaters. IMAX represents the direction of experiential cinema upgrades—audiences want not just to watch a movie, but to have an immersive experience. IMAX's stock hit an all-time high earlier this month.

Theme 4: Exchange Monopoly Competition, CME's Two-Decade Dominance Meets Its First Real Rival

The most institutionally oriented theme in Citrini's report points to a shift in the US futures exchange landscape.

CME Group holds roughly a 98% share of the US interest rate derivatives market, a near-absolute monopoly maintained for over twenty years. But the emergence of FMX Futures Exchange is changing this dynamic.

FMX was incubated by BGC Group (founded by current US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick). It received CFTC approval in January 2024 and officially launched trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list reads like a Wall Street all-star team: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo hold minority stakes, giving it a valuation of approximately $667 million.

FMX's competitive strategy is three-pronged: lower trading fees, margin savings through a partnership with LCH, and incentive programs for liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX set a single-day volume record of 9,500 contracts.

CME isn't without its flaws. Just last week (June 22), the CME Direct platform experienced a four-hour outage, not the first such infrastructure disruption. FMX has previously stated publicly that CME's near-monopoly makes such incidents a systemic risk, arguing the market needs a reliable alternative exchange to ensure resilience.

Of course, the path of a disruptor is not easy. During the tariff turmoil in April 2025, FMX's trading volume plummeted by more than two-thirds as traders instinctively flocked back to the deeper liquidity of CME during heightened volatility. However, as the market normalized, FMX's volume has been gradually recovering. Bank of America estimates that CME generates approximately $2 billion in revenue from treasury-related business alone. This profit pool is large enough to warrant a long-term challenger investment.

Theme 5: Fintech Recovery, the Most Beaten-Down Sector of 2026 is Bouncing Back

Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.

Fintech stocks were among the worst-performing sectors in 2026. As of the end of May, SoFi was down roughly 35% year-to-date, with Robinhood and Upstart each down about 25%. But starting in late May, the sector showed clear signs of a rebound.

SoFi's catalyst was the launch of the SoFiUSD stablecoin, making it the first US-licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. The stock jumped 12% on the news in a single day. On the fundamentals side, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion, with record loan originations of $12.2 billion, up 68% year-over-year, and member numbers reaching 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto described it as a "strategic entry into digital assets," and the company is developing global payment settlement capabilities in partnership with Mastercard.

Robinhood, after hitting a trough in 2022-2023, has completed a U-shaped recovery. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 45% year-over-year, with net profit doubling. The acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp, launching the Gold credit card, and increasing Gold subscribers to 4.3 million are all driving its transformation from a "trading app" to a "financial super app."

Upstart changed its CEO in May, with co-founder Paul Gu taking over. The narrative around its AI-powered credit platform also regained market attention during the same period.

Citrini's logic is clear: while everyone was focused on semiconductors and data centers, fintech was forgotten to extreme valuation levels. Yet the fundamentals of these companies haven't deteriorated; they are actually improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, the rebound potential is considerable.