链上Pre-IPO全解析：为什么SpaceX、OpenAI的定价权正在上链？

Compiled & Translated by: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Dio Casares, Founder of Patagon

Host: Laura Shin

Podcast Source: Unchained

Original Title: Why SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic Now Trade Onchain

Release Date: May 22, 2026

Key Takeaways

In the latest episode, Dio Casares and Laura Shin delve into how pre-IPO price discovery is migrating on-chain. From the recently launched SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual on Hyperliquid to secondary market trading of Anthropic and OpenAI shares, they analyze this trend in depth. They also discuss the new partnership between Nasdaq Private Market and Polymarket, and its potential implications for the future of private equity.

Key Insights Summary

Why are on-chain pre-IPO markets suddenly heating up?

• "For a crypto audience, a good way to think about pre-IPO perps is to see them as pre-market markets in crypto. Many people might remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with many altcoin pre-markets, and these markets started to attract significant volume, gradually becoming the place where most pre-market trading happens."
• "These pre-IPO perps are launched close to the planned IPO or key event. ... Because they launch so close to the event itself, they attract more volume and more willing participants. You can think of it as a futures contract that is about to settle, rather than something like Ventuals, which has a longer duration and it's unclear when exactly these perpetual futures will eventually settle."

Why are OpenAI and Anthropic denying secondary transactions?

• "First, they want to create a genuine fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. The essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying shares, but the company or employees don't get capital from it. And these AI companies are, to put it bluntly, high capital-intensive. They absorb a lot of cash, deploy it, and burn through billions of dollars."
• "Any behavior that hinders these high capital-intensive companies (so-called 'cash furnaces') from raising capital, especially right before they enter a highly competitive IPO phase, is seen as a major problem. ... They are all trying to absorb as much capital as possible. Therefore, limiting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step for them, as it channels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds."
• "The second reason is liability. Typically, when a company deems a transaction credible or approves it, it also becomes responsible for executing that transaction. ... When these SPVs start liquidating and winding down around the IPO time, a bunch of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal liability or simply avoiding trouble, they want nothing to do with it. Nobody wants to deal with 1000 different cases."

What problem does moving on-chain actually solve?

• "In crypto, the derivatives market makes more sense than the spot market, primarily due to US regulations. In the US, these private stocks typically require a holding period of about 6 months. ... Without a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could break the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and other issues."
• "A lot of spot market volume doesn't necessarily serve the interests of these companies, as it competes with their primary rounds. They don't want price discovery to happen this way, as it could lead to adverse selection during fundraising. The company might say: 'We know you're going to tokenize this, so we won't work with you.'"
• "In tokenized products, if the SPV messes up, or there are legal issues, or the fund structure is flawed, the consequences can be catastrophic. Derivatives have risks too, like ADL or price wicks, but it's more of a market risk, rather than someone botching a contract and everyone losing their money. That's why I favor the perp side."

Are private giants already trading like public companies?

• "To some extent, I agree: these companies do have record-high participation. If you break down the capital flowing into these companies pre-IPO, the participants could number in the thousands, even tens of thousands. That's not typical for private companies."
• "But as far as I know, they haven't really promoted the secondary market; they haven't encouraged people to buy and sell after investing. Instead, they've been very clear with investors: 'If you invest, you should hold until the IPO or a similar liquidity event.'"

Ways and risks of getting in before the IPO

• "These are late-stage companies. Once you get into second-tier, third-tier structures, it becomes a dangerous legal 'hot potato' game around these shares, and most people should probably steer clear."
• "There's a real risk that many banks and brokerages might say, 'We don't know if this trade is valid, so we can't allow you to sell these shares.' ... If the main bank account of an SPV is with JP Morgan, and JP Morgan says 'we can't help you sell these shares,' they suddenly enter a race against time: open a new account (which isn't easy), then transfer the shares from the original account to another brokerage account."
• "Another scenario is someone might say: 'I did agree to sell these to you and deliver them, but now those trades are deemed invalid, so I'm just returning your money.' This will most likely lead to litigation. They might eventually lose, but you still have to sue them. So, depending on the tools and structures, many different risks emerge."

Legal boundaries of Robinhood, FTX, and different structures

• "As for whether they violate securities laws, and whether companies like OpenAI can actually stop entities like Robinhood from offering these products, that's still a legal gray area. Regardless, these products haven't gained massive traction. The main reason is that these aren't truly liquid assets."
• "The batch of Anthropic shares held by FTX, and many other shares and assets FTX held, were typically sold without any encumbrance. That is, Anthropic's right of first refusal (ROFR) was fully waived, transfer restrictions were waived, and other limitations were also removed."
• "If you hold Anthropic shares related to the FTX claim, the ones FTX bought, you are probably among the safest besides the company's approved direct investors, because it has a different legal status."

The player landscape in the private secondary market

• "On the perpetual side, there's Trade.xyz, which is HIP-3; Ventuals, an earlier protocol, also HIP-3; and some new projects, like Entropy a friend is working on, which will also be HIP-3. They will offer some pre-markets earlier than Trade.xyz. You'll see these markets largely clustered around Hyperliquid."
• "I think Solana is more retail-oriented, and for some reason, people are more willing to experiment there. There's also significant overlap between crypto and AI... There are many people willing to take high risks, with substantial capital, and they are already accustomed to operating on Solana. They prefer to invest in these projects without needing to open bank accounts, go through cumbersome procedures in traditional finance, or use personal connections to get direct share allocations."

Patagon's positioning and the on-chain boundary

• "We looked at perpetuals in the private market, wondering if we should tell clients considering hedging pre-IPO – which is itself a bit of a gray area – that they could use perps instead of IBKR-type setups. ... We don't want to anger the companies we are on the shareholder register for. Launching tokenized versions of their stock, or a pre-IPO market, especially a very early one, is an easy way to seriously upset them."

Why pre-IPO perpetuals might continue to expand

• "Many major events that change the world and markets now happen on weekends, which is a huge positive for many 24/7 tradable RWA perpetuals. Pre-IPO perps are the same. Once they convert, they become regular RWA perps."
• "I'm not sure how the pre-IPO market will develop, but we have a historic number of IPOs this year. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all trying to reach trillion-plus valuations, which has never happened before. ... Now is a great time for pre-IPO perps to start gaining more attention."

Why are on-chain pre-IPO markets suddenly heating up?

Host Laura Shin: This week, or more accurately, the past few weeks, there's been a lot of activity in the pre-IPO market, especially on-chain. This week saw a major new listing on Hyperliquid – the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual. Around the same time, Polymarket announced a new type of event contract allowing users to bet on unicorn valuations, IPO dates, secondary pricing, etc., in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market. Last week, Anthropic and OpenAI made waves by voiding a batch of secondary share transactions.

According to Allium Research, pre-IPO activity on Hyperliquid was only about $3 million in February, but reached $44 million a few days ago. What's your take? Why is this activity emerging now?

Dio Casares:

I think a big part is that the timing is very strategic. For a crypto audience, a good way to think about pre-IPO perps is to see them as pre-market markets in crypto. Many people might remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with many altcoin pre-markets, and these markets started to attract significant volume, gradually becoming the place where most pre-market trading happens.

When these tokens officially launch, the opening price is usually quite close to the price formed in the pre-market. And after they become regular perpetuals with standard oracles, Hyperliquid retains most of the volume.

So what we're seeing with Cerebras and now SpaceX is that these pre-IPO perps are launched close to the planned IPO or key event. I think the relevant node for SpaceX is around the 17th of next month, just three or four weeks away. Because they launch so close to the event itself, they attract more volume and more willing participants. You can think of it as a futures contract that is about to settle, rather than something like Ventuals, which has a longer duration and it's unclear when exactly these perpetual futures will eventually settle.

Why are OpenAI and Anthropic denying secondary transactions?

Host Laura Shin: In my initial question, I mentioned several different types of activities: the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual, the Polymarket news, and the Anthropic/OpenAI events, some off-chain, some on-chain. They represent different areas or stages within this market. How would you summarize what these different news pieces represent?

Dio Casares:

There are roughly two layers of reasons why OpenAI and Anthropic came out saying "we won't recognize these trades."

First, they want to create a genuine fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. Because the essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying shares, but the company or employees don't get capital from it. These AI companies are, to put it bluntly, high capital-intensive. They absorb a lot of cash, deploy it, and burn through billions of dollars.

Any behavior that hinders these high capital-intensive companies (so-called 'cash furnaces') from raising capital, especially right before they enter a highly competitive IPO phase, is seen as a major problem. Currently, it's expected SpaceX will list first, followed by Anthropic, then OpenAI. These companies are trying to attract as much capital as possible. Therefore, limiting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step for them, as it channels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds.

The second reason is liability. Typically, when a company deems a transaction credible or approves it, it also becomes responsible for executing that transaction. In the company's cap table, it must ensure the buyer actually gets the shares at or before the IPO.

You can imagine the market might have hundreds or even thousands of SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and other entities, potentially leading to litigation, making structures very complex. When these SPVs start liquidating and winding down around the IPO time, a bunch of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal liability or simply avoiding trouble, they want nothing to do with it. Nobody wants to deal with 1000 different cases.

So they are very loudly stating now: "This is not our problem. If you're not in the approved block, we can't help you." They are choosing to make this clear before IPO problems arise. In summary, it's about maximizing the cash they can secure while minimizing their legal liability.

What problem does moving on-chain actually solve?

Host Laura Shin: We've already touched upon the various problems in this market and why some believe going on-chain can solve them. Can you specifically list, for both buyers and sellers, what problems they are trying to solve by moving on-chain?

Dio Casares:

Going on-chain can be split into two markets: the derivatives market and the spot market. The derivatives market has many advantages. Like most derivatives by nature, it's primarily a hedging tool. Many people I know using this market do so to hedge their existing spot positions or direct investments.

I think in crypto, the derivatives market makes more sense than the spot market, primarily due to US regulations. In the US, these private stocks typically require a holding period of about 6 months. There might be ways around it, but roughly 6 months. Without a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could break the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and other issues.

So once you tokenize something, as long as it represents some ownership interest in these companies, US regulators can easily claim it violates relevant rules. I think this is a huge obstacle for many tokenized products.

Another issue ties back to the previous topic: a lot of spot market volume doesn't necessarily serve the interests of these companies, as it competes with their primary rounds. They don't want price discovery to happen this way, as it could lead to adverse selection during fundraising. The company might say: "We know you're going to tokenize this, so we won't work with you."

In contrast, the derivatives side is easier to handle. A