华尔街又出新招，美股ETF股息自动定投比特币来了

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

Traditional finance has found a new twist on Bitcoin.

On June 18, Franklin Templeton filed with the U.S. SEC to launch two new Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, featuring automatic reinvestment of stock dividends into Bitcoin. These two ETFs are the Franklin U.S. Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF and the Franklin U.S. Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF, which track the VettaFi U.S. Large Cap 500 Index and the VettaFi U.S. Innovation 100 Index, respectively.

The initial base structure of both ETFs is compliant and secure: 95% traditional U.S. stocks (large-cap or innovative growth stocks) + 5% Bitcoin exposure. The initial 5% Bitcoin allocation will be rebalanced quarterly; if the weighting exceeds the target, it will be reduced to between 4.5% and 5%, with the Bitcoin allocation only allowed to naturally increase to 20% per quarter.

However, the truly interesting aspect of these two ETFs lies in their "reinvention" of the traditional financial DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan). Traditional DRIP automatically uses stock dividends to buy back the same stock for compounding, while Franklin's design uses stock dividends to automatically allocate to Bitcoin.

Therefore, the core logic of these two ETFs is to intercept all dividends generated by the underlying U.S. stocks, no longer reinvesting them in the stocks, but systematically and automatically converting them into purchasing power for Bitcoin, diverting the cash flow originally belonging to the U.S. stock market into Bitcoin.

The market expects that if Franklin's application passes SEC review smoothly, the ETFs could begin trading as early as September this year. What are the essential differences between these two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs and existing Bitcoin spot ETFs? If approved, how much passive buying pressure could they bring to Bitcoin? Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief analysis in this article.

Creating a New Capital Flow for Bitcoin ETFs

The biggest difference between Bitcoin DRIP ETFs and existing Bitcoin spot ETFs is that spot ETFs involve investors actively buying Bitcoin, whereas DRIP ETFs use dividends to automatically dollar-cost average into Bitcoin, creating a new source of demand for Bitcoin.

The process for Bitcoin spot ETFs to buy Bitcoin is roughly: investors are bullish on Bitcoin → buy spot ETFs → ETF managers buy Bitcoin → Bitcoin price rises. When the crypto market weakens, Bitcoin spot ETFs can also face selling pressure from investors: investors are bearish on Bitcoin → sell spot ETFs → ETF managers sell Bitcoin → Bitcoin price plummets.

Therefore, in essence, Bitcoin spot ETFs can only add upward momentum to Bitcoin during crypto bull markets, while during crypto bear markets, they become one of the largest sources of selling pressure. For example, as AI and semiconductor sector stocks currently attract global liquidity, Bitcoin is no longer the primary active asset allocation choice for traditional investors, resulting in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past two months.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of over $4.69 billion in May and June, with 13 consecutive days of net outflows from May 15 to June 3, breaking the record of eight consecutive days of net outflows set in early 2025.

Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, on the other hand, do not depend on investor sentiment. The process of buying Bitcoin is roughly: underlying stocks generate dividends → ETF receives cash → automatically buys Bitcoin exposure → forms continuous buying pressure. Even if investors do nothing, the Bitcoin position will keep growing. The rules for when a Bitcoin DRIP ETF sells Bitcoin are also clearly defined: quarterly rebalancing will sell Bitcoin when it exceeds 5% of total assets.

On the surface, this appears to be periodic selling of Bitcoin, but in reality, it positions Bitcoin as a long-term gain factor within the U.S. stock market bubble.

Investors must follow the trend. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a bull market driven by the AI tech revolution, while Bitcoin is in a cyclical bear market. Even if investors still believe Bitcoin will have another bull run in the future, from an opportunity cost perspective, even the most conservative investors would choose to allocate to large-cap stocks rather than Bitcoin.

But Bitcoin DRIP ETFs are selling investors a very compelling narrative: retain 95% of the returns from large-cap stocks, only risk the dividend income (which could go to zero) to bet on Bitcoin's risk-return profile, all with strict 5% risk control. This mechanism lowers the psychological barrier for traditional high-net-worth individuals and institutions to enter, and the 5% Bitcoin allocation effectively acts as insurance for the portfolio. If the AI bubble bursts and global capital flows back to safe-haven assets, Bitcoin might also see an uptick.

The model of using dividends to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin also differs from Strategy's treasury model. Strategy's logic for accumulating Bitcoin involves raising funds through bond issuance or stock offerings to buy Bitcoin, essentially using leverage. However, once leverage starts to be liquidated, buying pressure disappears, and there could even be large-scale Bitcoin sell-offs. In contrast, Bitcoin DRIP ETFs accumulate Bitcoin based on a cash flow logic. As long as the underlying major U.S. stocks continue to pay stable dividends, the ETF can continuously buy Bitcoin.

How Much Buying Pressure Can Bitcoin DRIP ETFs Create for Bitcoin?

In summary, for Bitcoin, Bitcoin DRIP ETFs represent a high-quality source of liquidity. They are not only sustainable but also highly price-insensitive. This is an innovation that automates the conversion of real corporate profits into support for Bitcoin's price. So, if Bitcoin DRIP ETFs are approved, how much buying pressure could they create for Bitcoin?

According to Franklin's filing documents, these two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs do not necessarily have to gain Bitcoin exposure by directly holding Bitcoin. They can achieve this through Bitcoin spot ETFs, Bitcoin futures and options, or other derivative instruments.

Therefore, Franklin's designed Bitcoin DRIP ETFs will not necessarily convert every dollar of dividends directly into a dollar of Bitcoin spot buying pressure.

I speculate that, in all likelihood, Franklin will choose for its Bitcoin DRIP ETFs to primarily buy its own Bitcoin spot ETF (EZBC) to gain Bitcoin exposure. The reason is simple: Franklin is an asset management company. If the Bitcoin DRIP ETFs accumulate Bitcoin by purchasing EZBC, it effectively allows Franklin to charge investors an additional management fee while creating an internal capital loop.

From Bitcoin's buying pressure perspective, regardless of which Bitcoin spot ETF product the Bitcoin DRIP ETFs buy, it will ultimately flow through to the Bitcoin spot market. The only difference is an extra layer of ETF in between.

Assuming the Bitcoin DRIP ETFs reach a size of $10 billion AUM, and the average dividend yield for U.S. large-cap stocks is 1% to 1.5%, then this would generate approximately $100 million to $150 million in annual Bitcoin buying pressure. However, for Bitcoin, such inflow levels would not have a material impact on its price. Currently, the daily inflow/outflow fluctuations for Bitcoin spot ETFs can be in the billions of dollars.

Therefore, for Bitcoin DRIP ETFs to create effective buying support for Bitcoin, either Franklin's two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs would need to attract hundreds of billions of dollars in AUM (unlikely, as Franklin's largest ETF product is only in the tens of billions of dollars), or other major asset managers would also need to adopt similar mechanisms to accumulate Bitcoin, continuously growing the Bitcoin DRIP ETF pie.