Năng suất hàng năm 15%-25%, Quỹ ETF Bitcoin thu nhập của BlackRock là cơ hội hay cạm bẫy?
- Quan điểm chính: BlackRock ra mắt quỹ ETF Bitcoin thu nhập (BITA), thu về lợi nhuận hàng năm 15-25% thông qua việc bán quyền chọn mua (covered call), hy sinh một phần tiềm năng tăng giá; Thị trường có quan điểm khác nhau về tác động của nó, các quan điểm tăng và giảm xoay quanh việc liệu nó có mang lại dòng vốn mới, tính xác thực của lợi nhuận và vị trí chu kỳ hay không.
- Các yếu tố chính:
- BITA ra mắt vào giữa tháng 6, dựa trên quỹ Bitcoin giao ngay IBIT của BlackRock, tạo ra lợi nhuận thông qua chiến lược quyền chọn, phí quản lý 0,65%, thấp hơn các sản phẩm cùng loại.
- Những người lạc quan cho rằng sản phẩm này chuyển đổi nhu cầu đầu tư lợi suất cao thành nhu cầu gia tăng cho Bitcoin, IBIT ghi nhận dòng vốn ròng 906 Bitcoin trong một ngày, cho thấy niềm tin phân bổ của các tổ chức là đầy đủ.
- Những người bi quan chỉ ra rằng lợi nhuận được tạo ra một cách nhân tạo, không mang lại dòng vốn gia tăng mới, chỉ phân chia dòng vốn hiện có, và các nhà đầu tư có thể mất đi không gian tăng giá cũng như phải chịu rủi ro giảm giá.
- Về đáy thị trường, Standard Chartered cho rằng 59.000 USD là đáy, trong khi Galaxy Research dự đoán 40.000-46.000 USD, thể hiện sự khác biệt lớn.
- Nhà đầu tư kỳ cựu Terpin chỉ ra rằng chỉ 4% dân số toàn cầu nắm giữ Bitcoin, đang ở thời điểm quan trọng vượt qua khoảng cách, mục tiêu dài hạn là triệu đô la.
- BlackRock đang đẩy nhanh việc chiếm lĩnh thị trường, Goldman Sachs có kế hoạch ra mắt sản phẩm cạnh tranh tương tự vào tháng 7, và dòng vốn của quỹ sẽ xác thực các phán đoán tăng-giảm.
Original author: By Boaz Sobrado
Original translation: Luffy, Foresight News
"Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that BlackRock's Bitcoin Income ETF (BITA) is about to launch," cryptocurrency commentator MartiniGuyYT posted. Citing Balchunas, he said the fund aims to "achieve an annual yield of 15-25% while striving to capture at least 70% of Bitcoin's upside potential."
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (ticker: BITA) on Nasdaq in mid-June. While Bitcoin itself does not generate any native yield, this product can bring cash dividends to investors.
How is the yield generated? BITA relies on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund IBIT, generating stable option premium income for investors by selling covered call options, at the cost of sacrificing some of Bitcoin's significant upside gains. Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's Global Head of Digital Assets, told CoinDesk that this yield-focused Bitcoin fund is the next natural step in the industry's evolution, designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, addressing the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets. He noted that the product performs better in sideways or bearish Bitcoin markets; if Bitcoin experiences a sharp unilateral surge, the fund's growth will lag behind the spot price.
Bullish View: This Product Will Boost Bitcoin's Price
Trading blogger TimWarrenTrades stated: "BlackRock is directly taking on Strategy. This ETF essentially converts high-yield financial funds into incremental demand for Bitcoin. Previously, when BlackRock issued Bitcoin-related ETFs, the market saw upward movements."
Inflow data for IBIT also supports this logic. According to statistics from @thepfund, IBIT recorded a net inflow of 906 Bitcoin in a single day this week, valued at $57.67 million. CoinEdition also pointed out that, during the same period, Fidelity accumulated an additional 37,700 Bitcoin, indicating strong institutional confidence.
Michael Terpin, a seasoned Bitcoin investor, said on the podcast "On The Margin" that the timing of this launch aligns with the Bitcoin four-year halving pattern he has observed for a decade: "The four-year cycle has never failed, but in every bear market, most analysts declare the cycle logic is broken." In his view, widespread pessimism is precisely a bottoming signal: "Anyone who has experienced a full bull-bear cycle knows that now is the time to position. The cycle has its own underlying logic."
He believes Bitcoin's buyer base has yet to form. "Only about 4% of the global population holds Bitcoin, and only 8% hold various crypto assets. The industry is at a critical juncture for crossing the chasm, and the percentage of early adopters happens to be right at this critical threshold of 4%."
Major institutions' price targets also send optimistic signals. JPMorgan predicts a cycle high of $170,000 for Bitcoin, VanEck sees $180,000, and Standard Chartered judges the $59,000 level as the bottom of this cycle, declaring the crypto winter is over.
Bearish View: Apparent High Yield, But a Yield Trap
Candid warnings also come from within the industry. Bitfinex and Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino believes the massive influx of funds into ETFs is not beneficial for the long-term development of the crypto industry. "I don't think ETFs are necessarily good for the crypto ecosystem," he said in an interview. "What will the entire industry become if 99.99% of Bitcoin is concentrated in various ETFs?"
Ironically, custody business is precisely a source of revenue for his company. "Every day, a large number of users treat us like a bank, but I prefer users to hold their own private keys and truly own Bitcoin," he admitted. While the custody business is profitable, it does not align with the native crypto ethos.
Some traders raise more specific doubts: this yield product will not bring incremental new funds to Bitcoin; it will only divert existing funds that would have been used to directly buy the spot asset. A popular video from the news channel Glimpse Market directly points out the core contradiction: Bitcoin itself does not generate cash flow out of thin air; the product's yield is entirely artificially created using option tools. Investors will have their upside locked, while downside risk remains fully exposed, making it essentially a trap.
Expectations for a market bottom are also sharply divided. Galaxy Research predicts the bottom of this cycle could drop to between $40,000 and $46,000, directly contradicting Standard Chartered's judgment that "the bear market is over."
How Will Bitcoin's Price Be Affected?
Terpin distinguished the fundamental difference between two types of capital: "ETF capital is not long-term committed capital; it's completely different from corporate treasury funds like MicroStrategy's, which borrow money to accumulate Bitcoin and hold it long-term without moving." He also emphasized Bitcoin's extreme scarcity on the supply side. "A few weeks ago, the 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined. There are only 1 million left to be mined, but it will take over a hundred years to mine them all."
His long-term price target far exceeds those of major institutional analysts: "As the adoption S-curve explodes, supply shortages will cause a massive price reversal. The scarcity effect will push Bitcoin into a super bull market. I believe the price has the potential to hit one million dollars."
BlackRock's BITA management fee is only 0.65%, lower than comparable covered call yield funds on the market. After reviewing the filing documents, a YouTube industry analyst said BlackRock is accelerating its market capture, launching BITA before Goldman Sachs introduces a competing product in July.
Fund flows will provide the final answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin, while Bitcoin holds steady above the $65,000 level, it indicates sustained real buying from institutions. Conversely, if the yield-focused ETF merely diverts existing funds from the spot fund, then the bearish "yield trap" judgment will be validated.
Twitter user @frugalbc summarized: "It's the same sixty-thousand-dollar Bitcoin, but the situation is worlds apart. In 2021, $67,000 was the historical top. Now, this price level is closer to the bottom of this cycle. Bears have been ignoring this point all along."
