BitMart研究院每周热点：多重利空集中兑现，加密市场创FTX后最大单周跌幅，宏观与链上全景复盘

1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1. Strong NFP Shocks Market: Rate Cut Expectations Reversed, Hiking Priced In

The biggest macro variable this week was the US May non-farm payrolls report. 172,000 jobs were added, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, indicating a resilient labor market. This strong employment data significantly cooled expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, and the market began repricing the risk of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs also pushed back its rate cut forecast to 2027. Following the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, hitting a two-week high. The Nasdaq plunged 4.2% in a single day, with the tech and semiconductor sectors bearing the brunt. Broadcom fell over 12% in a single day due to disappointing AI revenue guidance, dragging down Micron, Arm, AMD, and others, suggesting that valuation pressures after the crowded AI trade are unwinding.

2. Geopolitics & Energy: Iran Talks Show Promise, but Middle East Risks Persist

President Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations have entered the "final critical stage," and discussions regarding a ceasefire related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to advance. This led to a temporary easing of market concerns about extreme Middle East risks, with both WTI and Brent crude falling over 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and joint US-Israeli military actions are further reinforcing regional uncertainty. Energy prices, combined with a rise in Eurozone inflation to 3.2% in May, have further intensified market fears of "re-inflation" and also limited the Fed's future scope for rate cuts. Copper prices continued to rise as tariff reviews approached, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their full-year price targets.

3. Key Fed Window: Warsh's First FOMC Meeting Imminent, This Week's CPI Becomes Global Focus

New Fed Chair Warsh will preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 17th. While maintaining interest rates unchanged in June remains the prevailing market expectation, the pricing logic has shifted from "when will rates be cut" to "whether rates will be hiked again." The US May CPI report, set to be released this Wednesday, will be the most critical data point before the June FOMC meeting. If inflation exceeds expectations again, Treasury yields could continue to rise, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a significant decline in CPI could alleviate market concerns about "re-inflation."

Simultaneously, SpaceX's planned IPO on June 12th, with an estimated valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion, combined with the liquidity absorption effect of other large IPOs like Anthropic, could continue to suppress the resilience of risk assets. Furthermore, as the Yen approaches the 160 mark, if the Bank of Japan delivers an unexpected rate hike on June 16th, the unwinding of carry trades could create additional shocks for tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Plunges ~17% Weekly, Biggest Single-Week Drop Since FTX Collapse

The crypto market experienced its most severe single-week decline this week since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC fell from around $72,700 at the beginning of June to hit $61,100 on June 5th, a weekly decline of approximately 17%-20%. ETH fell concurrently by about 22%, currently trading around $1,682, representing a drop of approximately 66% from its all-time high.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, erasing approximately $390 billion in a week. Leveraged liquidations for the week totaled about $7 billion, with longs accounting for roughly $5.7 billion. On June 5th alone, liquidations reached $1.146 billion, affecting over 240,000 traders. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 9, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone. The core pressures driving this decline stemmed from the contagion effect of falling risk appetite in US equities, surging Treasury yields, sustained ETF outflows, and the concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs.

2. Sustained Net Outflows from ETFs, Systematic Reduction of Institutional Positions

US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $325 million this week, bringing the cumulative total net inflow to approximately $53.94 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows standing at about $11.2 billion. These ETF outflows, combined with professional investors reducing their BTC exposure and continued selling by some institutions, have placed systemic reduction pressure on the crypto market.

Strategy has paused its ATM share offering mechanism for purchasing coins, prioritizing the buyback of approximately $1.5 billion in convertible bonds instead. As a significant marginal buyer of BTC over the past two years, the slowdown in its activity implies a weakening of short-term market support. Overall, the ongoing investment frenzy in AI infrastructure continues to drain liquidity from the crypto market. The liquidity absorption effect of mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic also persists as a core headwind preventing Crypto from strengthening independently.

3. On-Chain Data: Whales Buying the Dip Coexists with Large Liquidation Risks

On-chain signals diverged significantly this week. On one hand, some large players began buying the dip. An Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563. A whale accumulated 93,330 ETH using approximately $152 million USDT. Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to his Maker vault, bringing his total staked ETH to 110,000 to mitigate liquidation risk.

On the other hand, liquidation risks have not been eliminated. Three major whales face liquidation threats on positions totaling 345,000 ETH, worth approximately $537 million, with a liquidation price range of roughly $1,241-$1,472. The total stablecoin market cap fell to $310 billion, a weekly decrease of about 1.89%, indicating generally weak on-chain buying power. BTC is currently testing support near the 200-week moving average, around $61,821. This is the first time it has touched this critical level since 2023. Whether it can hold support near $60,000 will be the core variable for determining short-term market direction.

4. Industry Narrative: Accelerated Derivatives Compliance, Speed-up in Institutional Infrastructure Deployment

This week, the industry narrative continued to converge around "institutional infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." CME launched its Nasdaq Crypto Index Futures on June 8th, covering assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. Coinbase, on the same day and under the CFTC regulatory framework, introduced four perpetual equity index futures: AI10, China10, Defense10, and Tech100.

Ondo Finance's Ondo Perps went live on June 9th, attempting to extend perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equity assets like stocks. Meanwhile, quantitative firms like DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are accelerating the formation of prediction market teams, positioning for cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp sell-off hasn't weakened the institutional trend; instead, it has strengthened the "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure" narrative. The crypto market is gradually transitioning from being driven by retail sentiment to being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

This article is a market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk control before trading.