Founders Fund đặt cược 600 triệu đô la vào SpaceX, thu về 500 tỷ đô la

Original Author: Bao Yilong

Original Source: Wall Street News

Brian Singerman, former partner at Founders Fund, a major investor in super unicorns like SpaceX and Palantir, recently revealed his "contrarian" concentrated betting strategy in an interview, bluntly stating that it was "A+ founders" like Elon Musk who created the return myth in venture capital history.

Wall Street News noted that SpaceX is about to officially land on the US stock market this Friday. Over the past nearly 20 years, Founders Fund, led by Peter Thiel, has invested approximately $600 million in SpaceX through multiple funding rounds and currently holds about 3% of the company's shares.

If SpaceX eventually goes public at a per-share price of $135, its valuation will approach nearly $1.8 trillion. Founders Fund's stake in the company would be worth over $50 billion, with a return ratio approaching 100x, which is arguably the most successful bet in the history of venture capital.

Against this backdrop, on June 11, the podcast "Sorcery" featured an in-depth exclusive interview with former Founders Fund partner Brian Singerman from his private home music recording studio, conducted by host Molly O'Shea.

Left: Brian Singerman; Right: Molly O'Shea

In the interview, Singerman unreservedly shared his thought process behind betting on SpaceX back then, his assessment of Musk, and Founders Fund's highly disruptive investment philosophy. Singerman stated:

"For me, the core of venture capital is: put as much money as possible into the best companies at the best price. Over 98% of my decisions are based on the strength of the founder."

Singerman emphasized that when he had the chance to meet Musk and learn more about SpaceX, he clearly realized that there was no one else on this planet besides Musk who could truly make something like SpaceX happen.

Furthermore, regarding venture capital returns, he bluntly stated that funds that only achieve a 3x return over 10 to 12 years actually underperform the S&P 500 index fund, meaning investors "essentially lost money."

In his view, portfolio management, position reservation, and ownership percentage calculations are all "nonsense." He admitted frankly that if SpaceX had failed back then, Founders Fund would no longer exist—"We were essentially betting our careers on it."

"Without SpaceX, Founders Fund Would Not Exist"

Looking back at the rise of Founders Fund, SpaceX is an absolutely central anchor point.

Singerman did not shy away from the decisive role this investment played in the entire institution's fate. Singerman stated:

Without SpaceX, Founders Fund would not exist. We basically bet our entire careers on SpaceX.

Although SpaceX experienced three rocket launch failures in the early days, the team maintained an extremely high level of conviction.

When asked why he dared to make such a heavy bet, Singerman attributed the core reason entirely to his assessment of Musk himself.

When I met Musk and learned more about SpaceX, I clearly realized that there was no one else on earth like him who could truly make something like SpaceX happen. There has never been anyone like him in the entire history of business.

In Singerman's view, Musk's irreplaceability lies in his ability to simultaneously excel in the dual roles of CEO and CTO. He said:

Very few people can be the world's best at both understanding the execution level of a new business model and the technical level. He is exactly that kind of person.

Additionally, regarding the highly market-watched Starlink business, Singerman revealed that the investment team had foreseen its huge commercial potential early on:

The launch business is an indispensable foundation, but all of us knew long ago that Starlink is the real core business model.

Abanishing VC Dogma: "Put the Most Money into the Best Companies"

Unlike the emphasis on "asset portfolio management" and "risk diversification" by Wall Street and traditional Silicon Valley VCs, Singerman demonstrated an extremely pure and concentrated investment philosophy.

Singerman stated bluntly:

For me, venture capital is all about putting the most money into the best companies at the best possible price.

Singerman further emphasized:

In my decisions, there is no place for any of that nonsense about portfolio management, reserve calculations, and ownership percentages. It's that simple: put the most money into the best companies.

Speaking from the perspective of market returns, he sharply pointed out that most diversified early-stage venture capital funds might achieve a 3x return over a 10 to 12 year cycle, but they actually cannot beat the S&P 500 index fund at all. Singerman said:

Beating the market is extremely difficult. The way to beat the market in venture capital is to pour massive amounts of money into the companies you are convinced will become the greatest in history—put every single dollar you can mobilize into them. All other methods will either just break even or underperform the market.

Under this strategy, the "founder" becomes the only variable. Singerman explained:

When I make venture capital decisions, over 98% of the basis is the strength of the founder. When I speak with that founder, do I believe they will crush all obstacles? Do I believe they are the world's best in some novel field?

Singerman also admitted the limits of his own judgment. He never reads financial reports. The only time he was asked to do a spreadsheet, his wife did it for him.

Regarding investments in biotech companies like Stem Centrx, he said he "knows nothing about biotech," but still decisively invested because he believed it was an unparalleled CEO.

Unveiling Peter Thiel: Cultivating a "Non-Yes-Man" Culture and Macro Predictions

As the soul of Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's style and macro judgments have always been a topic of market fascination.

In the interview, Singerman evaluated Peter Thiel's team-building strategy. Singerman emphasized:

Peter Thiel is the greatest venture capitalist in history. The best thing he does in venture capital is surrounding himself with people who are truly smart and unafraid to show their personal brilliance.

At Founders Fund, no one tries to figure out and say what Peter Thiel wants to hear. Singerman elaborated:

If you just try to say what he wants to hear, that will never work. People are too smart; they see right through it. He built a team of 'non-yes-men' who dare to oppose him, as long as your viewpoint is good enough.

He emphasized that Founders Fund's success is precisely because team members have genuine expertise in different areas, respecting each other rather than replicating one another.

He internalized this principle as a personal code of conduct: focus on what you are truly good at, don't pretend to be an expert in other fields, and don't participate in discussions on topics you don't understand.

He believed that the team back then, no matter the angle they came from, could ultimately reach a consensus on the judgment that "this is a true A+ founder"—not an A minus, but a true A plus. "Such people are extremely rare."

Besides company culture, Singerman also mentioned Thiel's keen sense of macro trends.

Regarding Peter Thiel's recent move to Argentina, Singerman frankly stated:

On macro trends, Peter Thiel is usually very accurate. He is the most impressive person I have ever seen in terms of judging global macro trends. He believes American politics is heading in a more extreme direction.

Singerman himself is also influenced by this concept of asset security. He chose to move to Hawaii, not just for the climate, but for a deeper reason related to the protection of private assets:

I'm not mainly trying to escape high income tax rates; what I'm trying to avoid is asset confiscation.

Bullish on Human Cultural Heritage, Physical Collections are a Belief

At the end of the in-depth interview, this investor who discovered countless tech unicorns talked about his views on the AI era.

Surprisingly, as a cutting-edge tech investor, after stepping back from frontline VC, he has poured immense enthusiasm into physical games, music, and cultural collections. Singerman stated:

I am very bullish on those unique iconic artifacts of human culture. In a world increasingly dominated by machines and AI, things that truly bear the imprint of human emotion and creativity will see exponential growth in mind share and value.

Singerman concluded:

"I am a tech optimist. I have made a lot of money betting on humanity, betting that 'the apocalypse won't come.' Machines might be able to make music better than me, but so what? Only the emotional feedback humans derive from art and passion is irreplaceable. That is what will truly define us in the future."

The full transcript of the interview follows (AI-assisted translation):

Molly O'Shea: Brian Singerman, welcome to Sorcery.

Brian Singerman: Thanks for having me.

Molly O'Shea: Thank you for hosting us. This place is really off the beaten path.

Brian Singerman: Yeah, we're in my home recording studio right now.

Molly O'Shea: This is a bit like 'nomen est omen'—Singerman.

Brian Singerman: I don't think so. That surname was probably made up a few generations ago at Ellis Island.

Molly O'Shea: Then how do you explain everything about you and music?

Brian Singerman: Right, exactly. For music, there seems to be no other explanation besides 'having a musical name.'

Molly O'Shea: It must have come from that. So when did music start for you?

Brian Singerman: Basically, I was 'created' at Ellis Island.

Molly O'Shea: Okay. We've got a good start. Most people know you from Founders Fund, where you are quite legendary. Grace from Vanderbilt invited me to one of their meetings, maybe in the fall or winter, and she said, 'Hey, I'd love to have you. You can do a fireside chat with Brian Singerman. Are you interested?' I said, of course. But it turned out I had to be abroad somewhere at that time.

Brian Singerman: You're such a world traveler.

Molly O'Shea: I'm very sorry. But we've finally gotten together in your music factory today.

Brian Singerman: It's a recording studio, but call it what you will.

Molly O'Shea: Okay. I want to talk about all of this. I mean, these are truly unprecedented crazy times, and the companies dominating the headlines are mostly ones you invested in early. I want to go through them one by one, starting with SpaceX, Palantir, Anduril. But before that, Max Loewen gave me some brilliant questions.

Brian Singerman: Oh no... I really don't want to hear what Max has in store. I'm really not prepared, but I'll do my best. I will definitely find a way to get back at him.

Molly O'Shea: We'll dive deep into investing later. Stay tuned. Let's start here—are you ready?

Brian Singerman: Ready.

Molly O'Shea: When and how did you get into board games?

Brian Singerman: That's a good question. I've been playing board games for a long time. I'm just a gamer. That's my label, and it's core to how I drive my investment strategy and everything else. I love strategy games; that's my real hobby. I started playing games when I was about six or seven, not just video games but also board games. I'd go to small gatherings near my house where people played all sorts of things—from Monopoly to Acquire to various other old games. I was just deeply hooked.

Molly O'Shea: Which are your favorites?

Brian Singerman: I've reached national competitive and even global competitive levels in a few games. I don't know if I should call it 'love' or 'obsession.' It seems I get obsessed with one specific game at a time. I was the US champion of Settlers of Catan, but that was back in 1995, 1996, when almost no one was playing it; it was its first year on the market. I'm probably top ten in the world in Ascension, and I've certainly cracked the top ten in Terraforming Mars and Keyflower. But how come I'm so bad at poker?

Molly O'Shea: Poker? You're bad at poker? How did you get into these specific games? How did it start?

Brian Singerman: I can't really explain it. You play one, find it interesting, and then you dive deep. Especially when these games have online or computer versions, you can practice repeatedly and get really good. Back in 1995, getting to a very high level in a specific game was almost impossible, totally different from now. I'm sure I couldn't compete with today's top players. But once online gaming really took off, if you put in enough time, you could get really good. My wife was quite exasperated—to reach that competitive level in those games, you need to play 10 hours a day, almost round the clock.

Molly O'Shea: And you already had a family by then.

Brian Singerman: Yeah, so since having a family, I haven't been able to do that anymore. But before that, it was really fun.

Molly O'Shea: Have you ever gotten into things like Chess or Go?

Brian Singerman: I'm bad at Chess. I'm terrible at games where tactics and strategy are equally important, or where tactics are even more important. I don't like tactics; I like strategy.

Molly O'Shea: I want to dig deeper into the strategy aspect, because I believe it does permeate your investment philosophy and how you view companies. What strategy do you mainly pursue? How do you view the competitive landscape and factor in game theory?

Brian Singerman: I don't factor in game theory. When I do venture capital, over 98% of my decisions are based on assessing the strength of the founder. When I talk to that founder, do I believe they will be unstoppable in what they do? Do I believe they are the world's best in some new field? Even now that I'm not directly investing anymore, I'm still asking the same questions: Do I think they are the world's best in a certain field? Do I think they can use that to build one of the world's greatest companies? Let's get back on track.

Molly O'Shea: Okay, back to 2007. You were talking to Sean Parker, and he introduced you to Founders Fund. You were managing your own angel fund at the time. Was it SpaceX that got you interested in joining Founders Fund? What was that feeling like?

Brian Singerman: It was really magical. At that time, I was managing my own fund while also at Google. I planned to leave Google and raise another, larger fund. I became friends with Sean, and he said, 'Hey, come check out what we're doing at Founders Fund.' So I went, just to look around, met a few people. I didn't know who the others were, or who Peter was at that point, just ambling around. They were just starting to consider a company called SpaceX—which sounded absolutely absurd. But that thing was just too cool, and I realized that as a solo angel investor, you could never achieve that scale. So I thought, this is the direction I want to focus on. So I joined Founders Fund early on.

Molly O'Shea: How did you meet Sean?

Brian Singerman: I think I met him because I was advising some company he was involved in, and we got to know each other. I think I met Joe Green first—he was Sean's co-founder at Causes—and then through Joe, I met Sean. Silicon Valley is like that, a complex network; it's hard to say exactly how the connection was made, but we became friends.

Molly O'Shea: That's a good transition, because Max has another question—I don't know if there's a story behind this question, but if there is, I want to hear it all. He asks: Silicon Valley is a hub of people. Who do you find most interesting, whether or not they are in your portfolio?

Brian Singerman: Silicon Valley is indeed a hub of people. I don't know who is 'most interesting,' but I can say this: There are two kinds of people in Silicon Valley—those who follow the crowd, and those who are truly unique and genuinely world-class in a specific field. I particularly appreciate the latter, those who excel in an area I could never reach. I think Peter Thiel is the greatest venture capitalist of all time, and there's a reason for that. And one of the things that initially attracted me to Founders Fund was that everyone there seemed to be the world's best in their respective fields. When I had the chance to meet Elon and learn more about SpaceX, it became very, very clear that no one else on this planet could truly make something like SpaceX happen.

I don't want to rank who is most interesting, but we can talk one by one about the people I know more deeply, and I can analyze what each of them is world-class at. Whenever I meet someone I believe is truly the best at something,