Polymarket Opens Testing, Kalshi Gains Approval – Perpetual Contracts Arrive for the Prediction Market Duo

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

Prediction markets are entering perpetual contracts, moving from official announcements to implementation.

Last week, Polymarket and Kalshi both achieved key milestones. Polymarket's perpetual contract Beta version has been opened for testing to some users, with access to be gradually expanded over the next 4 weeks; Kalshi, meanwhile, received CFTC approval to list the Bitcoin perpetual contract, BTCPERP.

In fact, Odaily previously discussed this trend in "Polymarket and Kalshi Enter Perpetual Contracts, While Exchanges Eye Prediction Markets": prediction market platforms are expanding into perpetual contracts, while exchanges are moving into event trading, blurring the lines between them. In "What Does the US Government's First Approval of Crypto Perpetual Contracts Mean for the Market?", we also analyzed the significance of Kalshi's BTCPERP approval for the US regulated crypto derivatives market.

Now, both directions have more concrete developments. One is starting with small-scale product testing, the other is securing regulatory approval first. The paths differ, but the signal is the same: prediction market platforms are no longer content with just event trading; they are beginning to enter the higher-frequency, more standardized derivatives market.

Polymarket Perpetual Contract Opens Beta Version, Gradually Expanding Over Next 4 Weeks

Polymarket Has Officially Launched Beta Testing

Last week, Josh Stevens, VP of DeFi Engineering at Polymarket, stated on X that the Polymarket Perps Beta is now live on polymarket.com for a select group of users, with access to be gradually expanded over the next 4 weeks. He later added that some users who applied had been added to the test list via direct message, and a few more spots might be released later, but no new testers will be added for now.

Currently, Polymarket has not disclosed the full range of trading pairs, leverage multiples, margin rules, or funding rate mechanisms supported by Perps. This suggests that this Beta is more of a small-scale product test than a full-scale launch for all users. Polymarket's current priority is not how much volume it can generate in the short term, but whether this new trading function can operate stably.

This is also evident from Josh Stevens's statements. When recruiting test users, he mentioned hoping for feedback on "things they don't like" and UI improvements. In other words, Polymarket is currently more focused on order flow, position display, mobile adaptation, and overall interaction smoothness. For a feature like perpetual contracts, which is closer to an exchange function, product experience is the first hurdle.

Based on feedback from some test users on X, the Polymarket Perps Beta already supports basic position opening. Some users mentioned opening leveraged long BTC positions on the test interface, and screenshots show assets like cryptocurrencies and indices appearing. However, these are still early test feedback; the final trading pairs and specific features await official disclosure.

Early Feedback Focuses on Eligibility, Liquidity, and Trading Experience

Early feedback primarily focuses on testing eligibility and KYC issues. The Beta phase is only open to a subset of users. Early applicants need to request access via X direct messages, and some testers must complete KYC verification. While some community members suggest these restrictions might be adjusted in the official version, current issues like "requires verification," "didn't get early access," and "will it affect future airdrops or points" have already caused some user dissatisfaction.

A more core concern revolves around liquidity. Simply being able to open positions is not enough for perpetual contracts; the real experience is determined by order book depth, slippage control, and trade stability during high volatility. Some community members directly stated that Perp liquidity is the true test.

Another issue is user habits. Polymarket's core users are accustomed to buying Yes or No on binary event contracts and waiting for the event to settle. However, Perps introduces leverage, liquidation, funding rates, and ongoing position management. While this mechanism is familiar to professional traders, it presents a significantly higher learning curve and risk of loss for new users coming from the prediction market space.

Additionally, Polymarket has previously faced user complaints about latency, order lag, and ghost fills. This has led some users to worry that similar issues in a Perps context could have a greater impact than in regular prediction markets. In prediction markets, a few seconds of delay might just mean missing a better price; in high-leverage trading, latency, abnormal fills, or unstable position displays can directly affect profit and loss.

Therefore, Polymarket Perps is currently in a磨合 phase. On one hand, early test feedback isn't overwhelmingly negative, with many users acknowledging the clean interface and straightforward onboarding. On the other hand, access barriers, liquidity, leverage risks, and trading stability are all issues that must be resolved before a full-scale launch.

Kalshi Opens Perpetual Contract Entry via Compliance License

Unlike Polymarket, which is still in small-scale testing, Kalshi's progress is more directly at the regulatory level.

On May 29, the US CFTC approved Kalshi to list a Bitcoin perpetual contract, which references the spot price of Bitcoin and will be traded as a futures product. According to the announcement, after reviewing under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act and Regulation 40.3, the CFTC determined that BTCPERP complies with relevant requirements and core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).

The significance of this step extends beyond Kalshi simply adding a BTC contract. It places a product that has long primarily existed on offshore exchanges and crypto-native platforms within the framework of a US regulated exchange. Perpetual contracts are one of the highest-volume and most familiar derivatives in the crypto market, but such products have been absent from the US domestic regulated market for a long time. This approval by Kalshi essentially opens a door for "US-regulated crypto perpetuals."

This also continues Kalshi's established strategy. It doesn't use aggressive products to attract users first and then seek regulatory compliance later. Instead, it secures regulatory approval first and then uses its compliant status to expand its product categories. In the past, Kalshi used its DCM status to package event contracts related to politics, economics, weather, and sports as regulated financial products. Now, it is applying this same approach to crypto perpetual contracts. In other words, Kalshi's ambition extends beyond prediction markets to become a broader compliant derivatives exchange.

However, a regulatory green light also means clearer boundaries. While approving BTCPERP, the CFTC also noted that perpetual contracts are not suitable for all asset classes. For assets not yet covered, market participants must still submit for review under Regulation 40.3. This means Kalshi can leverage regulatory certainty for an advantage, but it will be difficult for it to rapidly roll out a large number of trading pairs like offshore exchanges or crypto-native platforms. Its expansion will be slower and more influenced by regulatory pace.

This highlights the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket seems to validate market demand first, then gradually address compliance boundaries. Kalshi, on the other hand, secures regulatory space first, then uses regulatory certainty to drive product expansion. The former's advantage lies in crypto-native traffic and product speed; the latter's advantage lies in its US compliant identity and institutional narrative.

Therefore, the approval of BTCPERP is not simply Kalshi adding a new trading product; it signals a change in its identity. Kalshi is transitioning from a "prediction market platform" towards a "regulated derivatives exchange."

The Real Test Begins After the Contract Entry Opens

Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously advancing into perpetual contracts isn't fundamentally about adding a new feature to prediction markets; it's about pushing their business boundaries further towards exchanges.

Prediction markets themselves are not short of trading scenarios. Elections, sports, macro data, crypto prices, corporate events, and breaking news can all be packaged into tradable markets. Polymarket and Kalshi have already proven that event trading is a profitable business. However, perpetual contracts open up another layer of growth: they are more standardized and better suited to attract the capital and trading habits of mature traders. For these platforms, offering Perps isn't because prediction markets aren't profitable, but because they want to add a more established contract business alongside event trading.

But this path is not easy. By entering the perpetual contract space, Polymarket and Kalshi's competitors are no longer just other prediction markets, but mature crypto trading platforms like Hyperliquid, Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Users will directly compare liquidity, slippage, matching stability, leverage experience, and risk management capabilities. The brand and traffic of prediction markets will not automatically translate into competitiveness in contract trading.

So, the real test for perpetual contracts isn't whether platforms can list more new trading pairs, but whether they can convert event-driven traffic into trading volume. Only when users are willing to trade volatility and manage positions on the platform long-term, rather than just visiting for a specific major event, can prediction market platforms truly be considered to have entered the exchange business.