股价破发，IPO后首飞受挫，SpaceX将何去何从？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

In the early hours of July 17th, Beijing time, SpaceX was originally scheduled to conduct the 13th test flight of Starship. However, just as the countdown entered the final ignition phase, due to some Raptor engines failing to start as expected, the automatic launch abort sequence was triggered, and the test flight had to be called off.

Elon Musk stated in response that to ensure a smooth flight, SpaceX will remove and replace two Raptor engines, hoping to attempt the next launch in a few days, with the most likely launch time being early next week.

Prior to this test flight, SpaceX's stock price had just fallen below its IPO price, with the largest decline since listing approaching 40%. As Starship's first test flight following its IPO, the market had expected it to validate Starship's latest progress and inject a powerful boost into the recently languishing stock price. However, the failed launch has once again dealt a significant blow to SpaceX's stock – SPCX saw a short-term dip in after-hours trading, currently standing at $127.07.

A failed test flight is nothing new for SpaceX, but judging from the feedback of the secondary market this time, investors are clearly reconsidering a question: Can SpaceX still afford the luxury of "infinite trial and error" after going public?

Failed Test Flights Are Not New, But Times Have Changed

Looking back a few years, every failed Starship test flight was almost viewed as part of the engineering progress. While the community discussions about Elon Musk "blowing up rockets" were mostly lighthearted banter, they were also tinged with a certain amount of respect.

For SpaceX, the company has always adhered to a Silicon Valley-style R&D philosophy – build fast, test fast, fail fast, then iterate quickly. Rather than completing all verification on the ground, SpaceX prefers to get the rocket into the air as soon as possible, gather data from real flights, and then continuously optimize the design. As a result, throughout the past dozen or so Starship test flights, various mishaps – from mid-air disintegration and failed booster recoveries to orbital validation setbacks – have been almost constant throughout the development process. Yet, these setbacks have not prevented Starship from continuously evolving.

In the private market era, this R&D model was also widely accepted by investors. Whether institutional shareholders or employee stockholders, they were more concerned about whether the pace of R&D was progressing and whether the technological moats were being built, rather than the success or failure of a single test flight. For them, a failure meant obtaining a new set of flight data, and thus getting one step closer to eventual commercialization; it was essentially still part of the R&D cost.

But after going public, the way the capital market views Starship has begun to change. For secondary market investors, Starship is no longer just an R&D project; it has become a critical variable affecting the company's valuation. A failed test flight means not only replacing engines and rescheduling launch windows but also potentially delaying the commercial deployment timeline, slowing down the pace of revenue realization, and necessitating a recalibration of future cash flow forecasts. In the past, engineers saw a test that yielded data; now, Wall Street sees whether growth expectations can be met on time.

This shift doesn't mean the capital market demands that SpaceX "only succeed, never fail." Instead, it means every failure is now factored into the valuation model. Especially against the backdrop of a company being publicly listed with high growth premiums priced in, any event that could potentially impact Starship's commercialization schedule is more likely than before to trigger stock price volatility.

Going Public: Both a Driver and a Constraint

A month ago, SpaceX just completed the largest IPO in human history.

For any asset-heavy, high-investment tech company, the greatest significance of entering the capital market is precisely to secure more stable and lower-cost financing capabilities. For SpaceX, which is still in a phase of rapid expansion, whether it's continuously building the Starlink constellation, advancing Starship development, or planning for an even larger commercial space network in the future, all require massive capital expenditures. The IPO provides access to funding that undoubtedly fuels these long-term projects.

But the capital market never provides anything for free. With more public investors becoming shareholders, SpaceX now faces not just pure engineering challenges, but the continuous scrutiny of the capital market regarding growth, profitability, and the timeline for delivery.

In the past, Musk could tell investors: "Failure is also part of R&D."

Now, every delay, every launch abort, every test flight incident can quickly be reflected in the stock price, further impacting the company's ability to raise capital, market sentiment, and potentially even constraining management's decision-making space. The capital market inherently seeks certainty, while the biggest characteristic of aerospace R&D is precisely uncertainty. There is a persistent, difficult-to-resolve tension between the two.

For SpaceX, going public means gaining access to more abundant capital but also bearing significantly greater pressure.

The Upcoming Relaunch Next Week is Crucial

Fortunately, this test flight wasn't a failure after the rocket had launched (it didn't blow up, at least). Instead, the launch was actively terminated during the ignition phase, meaning the problem is relatively well-identified. According to Musk's latest remarks, SpaceX will attempt the launch again early next week.

For SpaceX's engineers, this might be just another routine launch delay; but for the newly public SpaceX, this relaunch carries significance that extends far beyond mere technical verification.

If the relaunch goes smoothly, market concerns about the pace of Starship development could be alleviated, and the recently pressured stock price may see a sentiment-driven recovery. Conversely, if another mishap occurs, SPCX could test even lower levels.