特朗普一条推文，BTC时隔3个月重返8万美元
- Quan điểm chính: Trump tuyên bố "Kế hoạch Tự do" can thiệp quân sự vào eo biển Hormuz để giải phóng các tàu bị mắc kẹt, thông tin này gây ra biến động trên thị trường tài chính toàn cầu: Bitcoin vượt mốc 80.000 USD, chứng khoán châu Á tăng điểm, giá dầu giảm nhẹ. Tuy nhiên, việc thực thi thực tế còn nhiều nghi vấn, thị trường cho rằng đây có thể chỉ là một "đòn hù dọa" khác.
- Các yếu tố chính:
- Bitcoin sau 3 tháng một lần nữa vượt ngưỡng 80.000 USD, trong 12 giờ qua, toàn thị trường thanh lý 286 triệu USD, trong đó lệnh short bị thanh lý 251 triệu USD.
- Chứng khoán châu Á đồng loạt tăng, chỉ số MSCI châu Á tăng 1,9%, cổ phiếu công nghệ phục hồi, SK Hynix, TSMC và nhiều mã khác tăng mạnh.
- Trump tuyên bố khởi động "Kế hoạch Tự do" vào thứ Hai theo giờ Trung Đông, cam kết dẫn dắt các tàu bị mắc kẹt rời khỏi eo biển Hormuz và nhận được hỗ trợ quân sự từ quân đội Mỹ.
- Iran phản đối mạnh mẽ hành động này, gọi đây là sự xâm phạm chủ quyền, đồng thời tái khẳng định sẽ hạn chế tàu thuyền qua lại thông qua "Đạo luật quản lý eo biển Hormuz".
- Tỷ lệ không ủng hộ Trump đạt 62%, mức cao nhất trong nhiệm kỳ của ông, ông cần gấp khôi phục lưu thông qua eo biển để củng cố thành tích chính trị, hạ giá dầu và ổn định kinh tế.
Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)
Crazy Monday! After three months, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $80,000 mark.
The altcoin market is also recovering. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past 24 hours, more than 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market cap have seen gains of varying degrees. Among them, DOGE increased by over 5.43%, ZEC by over 10.78%, and WLFI by over 7.06%.
In terms of derivatives, according to Coinglass data, total liquidations across the network reached $286 million in the past 12 hours, dominated by short positions totaling $251 million. The liquidation time coincided with Bitcoin's break above $80,000. Additionally, BTC liquidations amounted to $152 million, and ETH liquidations reached $75.5 million.
This rally was not exclusive to the crypto market. Asian stock markets opened significantly higher on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing losses since the Iran war. Tech stocks rebounded, with SK Hynix shares surging nearly 10%, TSMC jumping over 6%, and Hong Kong-listed tech stocks also climbing collectively. Xiaomi Group rose over 10%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) gained over 6%.
Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices also saw slight declines, with WTI crude maintaining around $101 per barrel.
When both the crypto and stock markets rise on a Monday, accompanied by minor fluctuations in oil prices, observant investors might guess that the market's puppeteer, Donald Trump, has struck again.
Market Expects Trump's "Project Freedom" Could Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
On the evening of May 3, Eastern Time, Trump posted that he would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday (Middle East time). He stated that many countries not involved in the current Middle East conflict are seeking US help to release their vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. For humanitarian aid, the US will safely guide their ships out of restricted waters, naming the operation "Project Freedom."
Following Trump's post, US Central Command also stated it would provide military support for the operation to guide stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile destroyers, over 100 land-based and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 troops. It claimed this was in response to Iranian military attacks on merchant ships transiting the strait.
Such a unilateral action by Trump would naturally anger Iran. As early as May 2, Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad, speaking on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasized that Iran would absolutely not retreat one step from the strait. He stated that the parliament had approved a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," including permanently banning Israeli vessels from this crucial waterway, requiring ships from "hostile countries" to pay "war reparations" for passage permits, and mandating that other vessels obtain Iranian authorization to transit.
Therefore, Iran views Trump's "Project Freedom" as an infringement on its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump announced the plan, Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that any US intervention in the new maritime order of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
On April 8, the US and Iran signed a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement. As the agreement was about to expire on April 21, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to continue negotiations with Iran. Although the US and Iran have ceased fire, control of the Strait of Hormuz has remained in Iran's hands, and it has never fully opened passage.
In terms of consequences, if Trump forcefully implements "Project Freedom," the current situation between the US and Iran could escalate from negotiations back to confrontation. At that point, not only would the Strait of Hormuz be impassable, but in the long run, war would deal a far greater blow to global financial markets than today's gains.
Of course, whether Trump, known for his bluster, will actually execute the "Project Freedom" plan remains uncertain. It is already Monday morning (May 4) in the Middle East, but there have been no reports in the market of US forces successfully escorting merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this be another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade? (Related reading: Did the War Win or Lose? Trump: I Won)
Iran seems accustomed to Trump's "cry wolf" antics. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi, commenting on Trump's posts manipulating oil prices in late March, said, "Every week when the market opens, Trump makes such statements to push down oil prices." Therefore, Ebrahim Azizi also dismissively remarked when Trump announced "Project Freedom" that no one would believe such a "pass-the-buck" trick.
Although we do not yet know if "Project Freedom" will actually be implemented, Trump's eagerness to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident. This is not only related to US national interests but also concerns whether Trump can secure his presidency.
On May 3, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump's disapproval rating reached 62%, a record high during his two terms. With the midterm elections approaching, such approval ratings are quite unfavorable for Trump, making him desperately in need of a game-changing achievement. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the ideal goal (even though the current problems are largely of his own making).
On one hand, externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz would demonstrate US global deterrence once again. Trump could package it as a complete victory over Iran, showcasing American strength. On the other hand, internally, restoring passage through the strait could lower global oil prices, alleviating dissatisfaction among the US public and relevant stakeholders. Moreover, lower price levels could increase the likelihood of newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh persuading other officials to agree to an interest rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related reading: Powell Bows Out but Doesn't Leave the Stage, Trump's Rate Cut Plans May Fall Flat)
On the morning of May 4, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social, showing him holding multiple cards with the caption "I have all the cards." On the surface, this exudes confidence, but often those with the weakest hands are the ones who bluff the most.
