五大巨头财报周前瞻：市场在看什么？

Foreword: This is Not an Ordinary Earnings Week, But a Centralized Validation of the Tech Main Narrative

This week, the US stock market will experience a truly "core asset exam week." Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will all release their earnings reports after the market closes on April 29, while Apple will announce its latest results after the market closes on April 30. Since these five companies cover almost all of the most important current tech mainlines, including cloud computing, advertising, consumer electronics, e-commerce, enterprise software, and AI infrastructure, their earnings impact not just their own stocks, but the entire Nasdaq and what the tech sector will be willing to trade next.

If we were to condense the market's main narrative over the past few months into one sentence, it would be: Tech giants continue to double down on AI, and the market continues to revalue tech leaders upwards. However, the issue is that after valuations have been lifted to this level, the market is no longer satisfied with the fact that "companies are investing in AI" itself. Instead, it has begun asking more practical questions: Are these investments continuing to drive cloud business growth? Are they improving advertising efficiency? Are they propping up end-user demand? And most importantly, are they starting to translate more clearly into revenue, profits, and future guidance?

The midpoint of Microsoft's revenue guidance for the current quarter provided last quarter was approximately $81.2 billion, with Azure growth guidance at 37%–38%; Alphabet has specified its 2026 capital expenditure plan at $175 billion–$185 billion; Amazon expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be around $200 billion; and Meta has raised its 2026 capital expenditure target to $115 billion–$135 billion. These figures alone indicate that the real theme of this earnings season remains "whether the market will continue to accept high spending."

I. What Does the Market Really Want to Confirm This Earnings Season?

1. Are the Tech Giants Still Willing to Spend on AI?

Currently, the valuations of many companies in the AI infrastructure chain are essentially built on one premise: mega-buyers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will continue to place orders, expand data centers, and procure computing power, networking, and power infrastructure. If management signals any caution regarding capital expenditure during earnings calls, it won't just affect them; the entire AI supply chain will be impacted.

2. Can the Cloud and Advertising Cash Cows Remain Stable?

Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and AWS are the most direct windows into corporate IT spending and AI demand. Meanwhile, the advertising businesses of Google and Meta represent the core cash flow resilience of internet platforms. If the cloud is stable and advertising is stable, the market will continue to believe that: Even with high capital expenditures, tech giants can still use their mature businesses to support future investments.

3. Is AI Still Just a Story, or Is It Starting to Become Profit?

All five companies are talking about AI, but their ways of validating it differ: Microsoft looks at enterprise payments, Google looks at cloud and search, Amazon looks at AWS and custom chip synergy, Meta looks at advertising efficiency, and Apple looks at the terminal entry point and ecosystem position. It is precisely because of these different perspectives that this earnings season is particularly worth watching.

II. What Questions Does Each of the Five Giants Need to Answer?

1. Microsoft: The First to Answer Isn't Growth, But How Far AI Commercialization Has Actually Come

Among the five giants, Microsoft is most like the "showcase" of this AI cycle. The market's willingness to consistently give Microsoft a premium over the past year isn't just because it is a cloud leader, but also because it is seen as the company most likely to turn AI into a real business first. By embedding Copilot into Office, development tools, and enterprise workflows, layered on top of Azure as the underlying cloud platform, Microsoft's strength lies in its ability to not only provide model capabilities but also directly reach enterprise customers most willing to pay.

Therefore, the most important thing in Microsoft's earnings this time isn't just revenue growth, but whether AI's "penetration power" into the revenue structure continues to strengthen. The current market consensus estimate is roughly Q3 FY2026 revenue of around $81.4 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.07. Microsoft's own revenue guidance range for this quarter is $80.65 billion–$81.75 billion, which is close to market expectations.

The key thing to watch is whether Azure growth can maintain a high range and whether AI products like Copilot can show clearer commercialization progress. Last quarter, Microsoft disclosed that Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39%, and it provided guidance for 37%–38% growth this quarter. This means the market's core expectation for this earnings report isn't really "is there growth," but "is AI still driving accelerated growth."

If Microsoft can continue to prove that enterprise customer budgets for AI tools haven't shrunk and that Azure's AI contribution is still increasing, the market will view it as the core leader where "AI commercialization is first paying off." Related enterprise software, cloud, and data center chains will also continue to benefit. Conversely, if Azure doesn't strengthen further while capital expenditure pressure remains high, the market will refocus on the return on investment.

In other words, the most critical thing about Microsoft's earnings this time isn't to prove AI is important, but to prove that businesses are still actually paying for AI.

2. Google: Just Finished Telling Stories at Cloud Next, Now Earnings Must Deliver the Report Card

Compared to Microsoft, Google's situation feels more like "holding a press conference first, then taking a quiz." Cloud Next 2026 just concluded, and Google released a lot of signals during the conference regarding AI agents, Gemini Enterprise, Vertex AI, TPUs, and infrastructure investment. This has indeed led the market to re-raise expectations for Google Cloud. However, conferences are about vision, while earnings are about delivery. The most significant pressure for Alphabet this earnings season stems precisely from the need to quickly turn "stories" into "numbers."

Google's uniqueness lies in the fact that it is neither a pure cloud company nor a pure advertising company. It straddles two major mainlines: one is Google Cloud and AI infrastructure, and the other is the mature cash flow machine of search and advertising. The current market consensus is roughly Q1 revenue of $106.9 billion–$107 billion and EPS of around $2.73. But more than just looking at revenue and EPS, the key is whether three things can hold up simultaneously: Google Cloud continues to grow, capital expenditure remains high, and search advertising stays robust. In February this year, Alphabet clearly outlined a 2026 capital expenditure plan of $175 billion–$185 billion. Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue grew 48% to $17.7 billion, with an annualized run rate exceeding $70 billion and rapidly increasing backlog orders. This means the market has already partially priced in the idea that "Cloud is strong and AI investment is heavy."

So, Google's real test this time isn't whether Cloud can grow, but whether it can continue to invest heavily while still defending the profit base of its search and advertising businesses. If all three lines hold steady, Alphabet might be redefined by the market as an AI platform leader with the most "offensive and defensive balance" characteristics. However, if any weakness appears among Cloud, Capex, or Advertising, the market's demands on it will immediately increase.

What Google's earnings represent this time isn't really whether a single business beat expectations, but whether the earnings can catch up to the expectations set after Cloud Next.

3. Amazon: The Real Difficulty Isn't AWS, But "Spending and Earning Money Simultaneously"

The difficulty of Amazon's earnings this time is different from Microsoft and Google. The market will certainly look at AWS, but looking only at AWS isn't enough because Amazon isn't just a cloud platform company. It simultaneously carries the burdens of retail, e-commerce, logistics, advertising, and cash flow. In other words, when the market looks at Microsoft and Google, it's mostly looking at AI and enterprise demand. When it looks at Amazon, it's looking at whether a company can bet heavily on the future without sacrificing the quality of its current earnings.

Based on disclosed information, Amazon's investment in AI is very aggressive. In its Q4 earnings report in February, the company stated that capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to be around $200 billion, mainly directed towards AI infrastructure. Later, in his letter to shareholders, CEO Andy Jassy supplemented that the annualized revenue run rate for AWS's AI services has exceeded $15 billion, while AWS's overall annualized revenue run rate is about $142 billion. Simultaneously, the annualized revenue run rate for its custom chip businesses like Trainium, Graviton, and Nitro has surpassed $20 billion. This shows that Amazon is no longer just saying "we are doing AI too," but is hoping that "AI will become the core engine for AWS's next growth phase."

However, the problem is that Amazon cannot just talk about the future. AWS is its engine for growth and profit, but the retail and fulfillment systems determine whether overall profit margins can be maintained. Last quarter, AWS revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $35.6 billion, with full-year AWS revenue reaching $128.7 billion. The company provided operating profit guidance for Q1 between $16.5 billion and $21.5 billion, with the midpoint not being particularly aggressive. This means the market will look at Amazon not just for the growth rate of AWS itself, but for a more realistic question: Will heavy AI investment squeeze profit margins again? If the answer is no, Amazon will be seen as an example where "high investment and high-quality profits can coexist." If the answer becomes ambiguous, the market's patience with it will decrease.

What's truly difficult for Amazon isn't proving that AWS is still growing, but proving that it can continue to invest in the future while still making money today.

4. Meta: The Market Continues to Buy, Not Because It Spends So Much, But Because It Spends Efficiently

Among the five giants, Meta's logic is the most likely to be misinterpreted. Superficially, Meta, like the others, is ramping up capital expenditure. However, the market is still willing to give it a high valuation, not because it also has a bunch of AI product launches, but because it has repeatedly proven that AI can directly improve its core business – advertising. For Meta, AI is not a distant new story, but an ongoing "efficiency revolution."

Looking at last quarter's earnings report, Meta's advertising business remains the foundation supporting all its AI investments. In Q4 2025, Meta's ad impressions grew 18% year-over-year, and the average ad price increased by 6%, with full-year capital expenditure reaching $72.2 billion. Simultaneously, the company has further raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $115 billion – $135 billion, and its total expense guidance has also risen to $162 billion – $169 billion. This means that what investors really need to observe now isn't how much Meta spent, but whether this spending continues to translate into stronger recommendation capabilities, longer user engagement time, better ad targeting, and higher ad monetization efficiency.

The mainstream market expectations before the earnings report roughly place Meta's Q1 revenue at $55.46 billion, advertising revenue at $53.93 billion, and EPS at $6.73. These numbers are certainly important, but what truly determines market sentiment is a more fundamental logical chain: AI recommendation optimization → increased user engagement → improved ad efficiency → higher ad revenue → continued market tolerance for high Capex. If this chain remains valid, Meta will continue to be seen as one of the best examples of "AI improving mature business efficiency." Conversely, if ad revenue growth slows while capital expenditure pressure mounts, the market will become more critical of its investment pace.

In other words, Meta's earnings this time aren't answering "Is AI worth investing in?" but rather "Is AI continuing to make this advertising machine more profitable?"

5. Apple: The Market Doesn't Expect It to Be the Most Aggressive, It Just Wants to Confirm It Hasn't Fallen Behind

If the first four companies are, to some extent, centered around "AI investment and commercialization," Apple's logic is entirely different. The market does not expect Apple to tell the most aggressive AI story this earnings season, nor will it measure Apple by "how much capital expenditure you are making." Apple's most crucial question is singular: In this AI cycle, is it still firmly holding the most important terminal entry point?

This is why the key point for Apple this time lies in a more nuanced combination: hardware demand, services business, and clarity of AI strategy. In its guidance for the current quarter provided during the last earnings report in January, Apple projected year-over-year revenue growth of 13%–16%. Based on this guidance, revenue is roughly estimated to fall between $107.8 billion and $110.7 billion. The current mainstream consensus by the market expects revenue of around $108.9 billion and EPS of $1.94–$1.95. S&P Global's preview shows market expectations for this quarter's iPhone revenue are around $56.5 billion. Meanwhile, Apple's global smartphone shipments in Q1 2026 grew 5% year-over-year, securing a 21% global market share in the first quarter. In the Chinese market, iPhone shipments also grew 20% year-over-year. This suggests that, at least before the earnings report, the market has not seen clear signs of stalled terminal demand for Apple.

Therefore, Apple's real focus this time isn't on whether it will loudly emphasize AI investment like Microsoft or Google, but on whether it can continue to prove that even with a less aggressive pace in the AI cycle, it still possesses the most important terminal ecosystem, the strongest user base, and the most stable source of high-quality profits. As long as hardware demand is stable, the services business is stable, and its AI stance is clearer than before, the market will not easily exclude Apple from the tech main narrative.

Apple represents not the first to realize AI commercialization, but rather: the value of the terminal entry point in the AI cycle is still in its hands.

III. Looking at the Five Companies Together, the Market is Actually Conducting a "Cross-Validation"

If we look at each company individually, this week is certainly about five separate earnings reports. But when viewed together, you realize the market is effectively performing a larger cross-validation. Microsoft's report checks if AI has formed a closed loop of enterprise payments; Google's checks if conference narratives can quickly translate into dual delivery for Cloud and Advertising; Amazon's checks if high investment can coexist with high-quality profits; Meta's checks if AI is continuously improving the efficiency of mature businesses; and Apple's checks if its terminal entry point and ecosystem position remain solid.

These seem like five different threads, but they all point to the same question: Are the current high valuations of tech leaders based on actual delivery, or are they still more based on expectations? If most of the five companies deliver positive answers, the market will be more willing to push higher valuations in directions related to AI, cloud, advertising platforms, and terminal ecosystems. However, if the results show clear divergence, the market will shift from "universally raising valuations" back to a state of "only rewarding those who deliver the best."

IV. After the Earnings, What Might the Market Reprice?

After this earnings week, what the market is most likely to reprice isn't a single company, but several major narratives.

The first is certainly the AI infrastructure chain: If the tech giants' capital expenditure trajectories remain high, directions like data