BIT Investment Research: Multiple Signals Simultaneously Turn Positive – Has Bitcoin's Recovery Rally Started?

In our previous two reports, we suggested that the bear market phase for Bitcoin might be nearing its end. Currently, as the price reclaims key technical levels, multiple indicators such as the trend model, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows are showing signs of convergence. Market confidence in this assessment is also gradually increasing. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has remained a significant watershed since March 2024 and serves as a critical threshold for confirming a reversal in this trend.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed its position above the 21-week moving average, an indicator that plays a key role in frameworks for distinguishing bull and bear markets. Additionally, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillator are both in ranges historically associated with bottoming zones, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from a cyclical bottom to a phase of recovery. Although short-term fluctuations may still be influenced by macroeconomic variables, against the backdrop of gradual technical improvement, Bitcoin's trajectory is beginning to show structural characteristics shifting from a "bounce" to a "trend repair."

Technical Signal Convergence: Key Moving Averages and Trend Model Point to a Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has reclaimed the 21-week moving average. Historically, this signal has often been seen as an important confirmation condition for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market will likely transition from a phase of consolidation and repair to a trending uptrend.

Historical backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average is not only effective in identifying trend reversals but also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price confirms support in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator could trigger an entry signal once again.

Concurrently, the trend model has turned bullish. Considering Bitcoin's characteristics of strong trends and high volatility, and following several previous signal whipsaws, this trend has stronger conditions for continuation. The synchronized strengthening of multiple technical indicators across different timeframes makes the current market environment more closely resemble key historical phases of recovery from the bottom.

Accelerating Capital Inflow Repair: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Structural Market Improvement

Alongside improving technicals, changes in capital flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, capital inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy's purchases have totaled approximately $18.7 billion, pushing overall capital inflows to their highest level since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing outflows of roughly $25 billion, the market's capital position has begun to recover, with the pace of repair noticeably faster than the 2022 cycle. This suggests that the market structure is rebalancing more quickly following this adjustment period.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise capital and buy Bitcoin using its STRC instrument. So far this year, its cumulative fundraising has reached approximately $11 billion, providing a stable source of buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can continue to operate, constantly converting into new demand. Capital inflows are no longer dependent on a single channel but are improving synchronously across multiple dimensions. This reduces the probability of another significant decline in Bitcoin and also lays the foundation for the price to advance toward the $88,000 target range.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical transition phase from "technical repair" to "capital-driven repair." Multiple indicators, including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain capital flows, are forming a confluence. Historically, such signals often correspond to windows where the market moves from temporary bounces to sustained trend recovery. Meanwhile, improvements in capital flows are accelerating and coming from more diverse sources, making the market structure more robust compared to previous cycles.

However, macroeconomic variables could still cause periodic disruptions. For example, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC spread could affect short-term momentum. A rapid, one-sided price increase for Bitcoin is unlikely; instead, a gradual uptrend amid choppy trading is more probable. Nevertheless, based on the current combination of technicals and capital flows, the market direction is clearer than before, and the trend repair is gradually unfolding.

Some of the views above originate from BIT on Target. Contact us for the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets carry risks. Invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading carries significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering your personal circumstances and consulting with a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.