ทองคำ「บีบชอร์ต」เข้าสู่ระยะที่สอง: สัญญาณมหภาคและเทคนิคส่งเสียงสะท้อนร่วมกัน ระดับ 4,500 ดอลลาร์กลายเป็นแนวต้านสำคัญ

Original Author: Zhao Ying

Original Source: Wall Street CN

The short-squeeze dynamics in the gold market are evolving into a more sustained upward structure. The synchronized convergence of macro signals and technical indicators is providing support for the next phase of gold price gains, with $4,500 emerging as a key resistance level closely watched by the market.

On Tuesday, according to a comprehensive analysis by ZeroHedge, gold has once again recorded a strong bullish candlestick after a recent minor flag consolidation pattern, with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages forming a bullish crossover, clarifying the technical outlook. Meanwhile, gold's trajectory is now almost perfectly aligned with Fed rate expectations, and it has resumed tracking movements in Japan's ultra-long-end yields, signaling a return of macro drivers.

Fund flows also show positive signals. According to Bank of America data, gold inflows posted their largest weekly figure since January this year, with Western active long positions beginning to return to the market. Goldman Sachs analyst Ankush Gupta noted that this metals rally has been clearly dominated by Chinese capital, with participation on Asian exchanges jumping from single-digit percentiles to around 50%, forcing short covering and driving gold prices in an unusually near-vertical rise.

Macro Signals Return: Dual Convergence of JGBs and Fed Pricing

Gold is once again responding to macro variables, a shift viewed by the market as a key signal that the rally has entered a new phase.

Gold's moves are now nearly perfectly aligned with Fed rate pricing, according to Goldman Sachs data, with the correlation reaching an almost synchronous level. At the same time, gold has also resumed tracking changes in Japan's ultra-long-end yields—a relationship that had previously decoupled during the earlier gold frenzy. Its re-establishment suggests the market is repositioning gold as a core hedge against global macro risks.

The analysis describes gold as the only truly "all-asset hedge tool." Against a backdrop of ongoing volatility in global rate expectations and lingering pressure in Japan's bond market, gold's renewed sensitivity to macro signals provides fundamental support for further upside.

Technical Picture Becomes Clearer: Bullish Formation After Flag Consolidation

On the technical front, after several days of minor flag consolidation, gold has once again recorded a strong bullish candlestick, with the pattern showing conditions for launching the next leg higher.

Notably, the 21-day moving average has formed a bullish crossover with the 50-day moving average, a mid-term technical signal typically viewed as an important confirmation of trend continuation. According to LSEG Workspace data, if gold can close slightly above current levels, it could trigger a new round of short covering.

The analysis points out that the overall landscape remains bullish, with macro fundamentals and technicals re-converging—a logic consistent with its bullish stance on gold from early August.

Chinese Capital Dominates This Rally, Western Longs Begin to Return

The structural characteristics of this gold rally are worth noting. Goldman Sachs' Ankush Gupta pointed out that there is clear evidence this metals rally has been driven by Chinese capital—with participation on Asian exchanges jumping from single-digit percentiles to around 50%. This influx of funds has forced substantial short covering and driven gold prices in an unusually smooth, vertical ascent.

Currently, Western active long positions are also beginning to return to the market, further improving fund flows. According to Bank of America data, gold inflows have posted their largest weekly figure since January this year, indicating that market sentiment is spreading to a broader set of participants.

Gupta also noted that current positioning has not yet reached overly crowded levels, but the initial "spring compression" phase has likely been largely released, and the market will face more two-way risks going forward.

$4,500 Becomes Key Resistance, Options Strategies Offer Better Value

As gold approaches key technical levels, the changing risk-reward profile is influencing how market participants engage.

Goldman Sachs' Ankush Gupta has explicitly set $4,500 as a key resistance level, suggesting that profit-taking pressure could emerge around that price point. For investors still looking to participate in the upside, Gupta prefers expressing bullish views through call spreads and digital KO structures, arguing that these structures are more straightforward and efficient given the current shift in risk-reward dynamics and the repricing of volatility skew.

Notably, despite the recent sharp rally in gold prices, implied volatility in gold has remained relatively stable, keeping the cost of participating in potential upside via options still reasonable. Analysts believe that with volatility at current levels, call spreads still offer allocation value.

Additionally, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have generally held short positions during this short-squeeze rally. If gold continues to rise, these positions still face forced buying pressure, but analysts caution that convexity effects are no longer one-directional at this stage.