tonight's US CPI expected to moderately slow, September rate hike expectations may face another blow
2026-08-12 10:07
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The current probability of a rate hike is about 50%. Moderately tame inflation data may prompt a wait-and-see stance, but the hawkish position still leaves the outlook for future policy full of uncertainty.
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- Core View: The US July CPI data is about to be released, with market expectations leaning toward moderation. It will serve as a key litmus test that puts the probability of a Fed rate hike in September (currently around 50%) to the test. Despite the growing hawkish voices within the Fed, the most likely scenario remains that data comes in as expected, leaving the September decision hanging in the balance.
- Key Elements:
- The market generally expects July's headline CPI to rise 0.1% month-over-month, core CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, and annual rates to ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
- Goldman Sachs expects core CPI to rise 0.19% month-over-month, slightly below consensus; falling energy prices are the main factor weighing on headline inflation, while the housing component continues its slowing trend.
- Hawkish forces are building within the Fed: three governors voted in favor of a rate hike at the July meeting, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that multiple rate hikes may be needed.
- Bank of America maintains its forecast of three rate hikes over the coming months; if core CPI averages 0.25% month-over-month over the next two months, a September hike by the Fed would be almost certain.
- J.P. Morgan scenario analysis shows that when core CPI falls within the 0.20%-0.25% range month-over-month (40% probability), the S&P 500 is expected to gain 0.25%-0.75%.
- Wells Fargo recommends setting up hedging positions ahead of the CPI release; its sentiment indicator reads 1.4, sitting in the strongest "sell" signal zone since 2018.
- Société Générale points out that the stock market's inflation proxy index has risen 71% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the MSCI World Index, warning that the market no longer expects a "strong earnings + rate cuts" combination.
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