下一轮牛市的主战场在哪？答案就藏在这两类资产里

Original Author: Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

The crypto market is finally showing signs of bottoming out. Since July 1, Bitcoin has risen 9%, while the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 6% over the same period. Crypto ETF inflows have turned positive, and market sentiment continues to improve. Although it is still too early to declare a full-scale market stabilization, these positive signals have led many to ponder the future market direction.

Last Friday, an investment advisor asked me: "If the market has bottomed, which asset class will lead the next crypto bull run?"

Typically, this is a difficult question to answer during a crypto winter. The dominant narrative of a new bull market often only becomes clear after the trend is well underway.

But this time, I believe the answer is right in front of us: The core narrative of the next crypto bull run will be the convergence of on-chain finance and traditional finance.

In other words, the market's key focus will revolve around stablecoins, asset tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and institutional-grade decentralized finance (DeFi) growing to a multi-trillion dollar scale. Blockchain will disrupt the existing financial system, much like the internet reinvented media and retail in the early 21st century. I expect this could be the largest crypto cycle ever, for two reasons: First, this cycle is driven by real application value and revenue, not just market hype; second, the market this cycle targets is far larger than previous cycles—it targets the global financial market, not just the crypto industry internally.

Some might find these trends self-evident: Asset tokenization will inevitably lead the next bull run, stablecoins will eventually exceed trillions of dollars, and Wall Street institutions will inevitably migrate on-chain. After all, crypto infrastructure offers numerous inherent advantages over traditional finance: 24/7 trading is far more convenient than limited trading hours; instant settlement is superior to T+1 settlement; global interoperability transcends geographical boundaries. I'm not alone in this view. The Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the CEO of the world's largest asset manager, and the CEO of the world's largest bank all agree.

However, even though the trend seems clear, the vast majority of investors have not yet positioned their assets for this prospect. Many are still wondering if the crypto industry has 'had its day.' And within this perception gap lies a significant investment opportunity.

So, how should we position ourselves for the next bull run? We can focus on two representative entities driving this convergence from different directions: Hyperliquid (token: HYPE) and Robinhood (ticker: HOOD).

Breaking Out from the Crypto Industry

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a Layer 1 public blockchain (similar to Ethereum, Solana) natively designed to build a perpetual derivatives trading market primarily for crypto assets. Initially, investors used the Hyperliquid platform to speculate on crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, leveraging its excellent technical experience—ease of use, instant settlement, 24/7 trading, etc.—the platform's business scope expanded rapidly outward. Today, nearly half of Hyperliquid's trading volume comes from traditional assets like oil, silver, and the S&P 500 index. The platform is also continuously expanding into commodity spot trading, prediction markets, and options, while competing with a range of exchanges like CME, Nasdaq, ICE, Kalshi, and Coinbase.

Hyperliquid's rapid growth has put immense pressure on competitors. The CME even sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in an attempt to block regulators from embracing the perpetual futures product that Hyperliquid pioneered.

Even in the crypto winter, the HYPE token has gained 146% year-to-date. The growth is backed by real data: Hyperliquid's cumulative total revenue surpassed $1 billion in June, and its projected annual revenue is $800 million. The platform uses 99% of its revenue to buy back its native token, HYPE, on the open market, continuously reducing circulating supply. In my view, even if HYPE's price doubles again, its valuation would still be reasonable.

Penetrating from Traditional Finance

Robinhood chooses to drive this industry convergence from the traditional finance side.

Robinhood itself is a traditional securities broker, competing with institutions like Charles Schwab for retail and professional investors. For a long time, Robinhood has been far more open to crypto assets than its peers; it was the first major broker to offer direct trading of cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, Robinhood fully embraces the 'industry convergence' thesis I mentioned. CEO Vlad Tenev stated that asset tokenization 'will ultimately reshape the entire financial system'; that crypto and traditional finance 'have long existed as two separate systems, but they will eventually fully merge.' He predicts that the boundaries between them will eventually disappear completely.

On July 1, Robinhood went 'all-in' on this trend, launching its own Layer 2 blockchain, Robinhood Chain. This public blockchain is accessible to users in 120 countries (not yet available in the US), allowing them to trade tokenized stocks 24/7, year-round. The chain is also compatible with major DeFi protocols: users can swap assets on Uniswap, lend and borrow assets on Morpho, or stake assets as margin to trade perpetual contracts on Lighter. Within just two weeks of launch, Robinhood Chain reached over $300 million in assets held on the chain, processing 3.6 million transactions daily.

This paragraph is worth reading carefully: Earlier this month, Robinhood simply launched the technology and rolled out a financial service across 120 countries. Users can buy and sell tokenized stocks, engage in margin trading and leverage operations in real-time, continuously, and a significant number of users are already participating.

Skeptics will point out that early on-chain activity was heavily concentrated in memecoins, not stocks, and that is true. But the volume of tokenized stock trading is already substantial, the user base is real, and I expect both types of trading volume to continue growing.

One thing I am very certain of: Robinhood's competitors are closely watching this project and are beginning to think: Should we follow suit? Does Schwab need its own chain? UBS? Bank of America? The level of activity Robinhood demonstrated at launch is something no institution can ignore.

Two Types of Investment Theses Set to Stand Out

I believe the new bull market will be large enough to lift many assets within the industry. I am long-term bullish on major crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as publicly traded companies related to crypto.

However, two specific types of investment theses possess particularly outstanding upside potential.

1. The Hyperliquid Thesis: Native Crypto Financial Applications with Real Revenue and Sound Tokenomics

Hyperliquid's core advantage over other crypto applications is its stable, real revenue and sound token mechanism (99% of revenue used for buyback and burn of HYPE). Many investors have seen crypto applications with massive user bases and trading volumes, yet their token prices remain depressed. Hyperliquid's model perfectly caters to the needs of such investors.

Looking ahead, I believe many new crypto projects will emulate HYPE's token mechanism, giving rise to a new generation of promising token investment opportunities. Simultaneously, I am also watching established projects that have already achieved scale and are actively working to tightly couple token value with platform usage. For example, Uniswap and Aave, both massive platforms, are rapidly optimizing their tokenomics; Morpho is also heading in the same direction.

2. The Robinhood Thesis: Mature Traditional Enterprises Leveraging Crypto Infrastructure

Industry disruption reshapes market share. The proliferation of stablecoins, asset tokenization, and the implementation of blockchain-based trading infrastructure represent the most significant technological change for financial markets in the last fifty years. A massive transformation is quietly underway.

To identify winners, focus on companies already operating crypto businesses at scale, not just those in the concept stage. Proof-of-concept pilots are cheap, easy to generate news headlines, but difficult to accumulate meaningful experience. The industry knowledge Robinhood has gained from its live public blockchain operating in 120 countries far surpasses what any small pilot project could offer.

Companies I am continuously watching include Coinbase, Figure, and BlackRock; I'm also keeping an eye on Visa, Stripe, and even JPMorgan. There are other participants, but these are the ones genuinely and deeply engaged in this transformation.

Embracing the Megatrend of Convergence

There has long been a consensus within the crypto industry: The ultimate sign of blockchain's success is its 'invisibility'—when it becomes so deeply embedded in the foundational architecture of the financial system that users don't even perceive its existence when using services.

I have always firmly believed that this vision will become reality when the next bull market arrives and traditional finance and the crypto industry are inextricably linked. Investors should position themselves ahead of this trend.

Note: Sometimes, judging a company's involvement in crypto requires looking at its actions, not its marketing rhetoric.