华尔街六大行Q2业绩集体向好：高盛利润翻倍涨8%，SpaceX IPO成「最强催化剂」
- Core Thesis: On July 14, 2025, five major Wall Street banks including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs released Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations. Goldman Sachs' profit doubled to a record high, while JPMorgan's net profit hit a new quarterly record. The core drivers for the outperformance were market volatility triggered by geopolitical conflicts (boosting trading revenue) and SpaceX's largest IPO in history (generating massive investment banking fees). However, stock performance was mixed, as market focus has shifted to future expense guidance and capital allocation strategies.
- Key Elements:
- Goldman Sachs' Q2 EPS was $20.98, nearly double year-over-year. Equity trading revenue surged 72% year-over-year to a record, and investment banking fees increased 55% year-over-year, driven by its role as lead underwriter for the SpaceX IPO.
- JPMorgan Chase's net profit of $21.2 billion set a quarterly record, but an upward revision to its full-year expense guidance caused its pre-market stock price to fall 2%. The stock later reversed to close up about 2%, indicating investor sensitivity to rising costs.
- Citigroup's Q2 revenue hit a ten-year high, with all metrics beating expectations. However, its stock fell 4.5% as the market was dissatisfied that management did not raise the full-year return-on-equity target (which was already above its target range).
- Two key drivers for the earnings beat: Geopolitical conflicts led to severe volatility in equity and commodity markets, with the combined Q2 trading revenue of the five major banks totaling approximately $39 billion; SpaceX's IPO, which raised $86 billion, became the largest in history.
- Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report earnings on July 15. The market expects its EPS to increase by approximately 35.7% year-over-year, but some analysts have downgraded the stock, noting that expectations have already been raised by peers.
Original Author: Claude, TechFlow (Shenchao TechFlow)
Shenchao Guide: On July 14, five major Wall Street banks—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—simultaneously released their Q2 earnings reports, all exceeding expectations. Goldman Sachs' EPS was $20.98, nearly double that of last year, with its stock price surging nearly 8% to an all-time high; JPMorgan Chase's net profit of $21.2 billion set a quarterly record. The intense market volatility triggered by geopolitical conflicts actually filled the trading desks' coffers, and SpaceX's largest-ever IPO ($86 billion) injected substantial fee income into investment banking operations. However, "exceeding expectations" does not equal "stock price increase." Citigroup beat expectations across the board yet fell 4.5%, while JPMorgan Chase dropped 2% pre-market before reversing. Morgan Stanley reports its results on July 15, with the market expecting EPS to increase over 30% year-over-year.
Five Wall Street heavyweights submitted their reports on July 14, each with more impressive results than the last.
Goldman Sachs posted the strongest single quarter in company history. JPMorgan Chase's net profit set a new all-time record. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all exceeded market expectations across the board. However, stock price performance showed severe divergence, with Goldman Sachs rising nearly 8% to an all-time high, while Citigroup fell 4.5%. In June, SpaceX went public, raising $86 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, making it the largest IPO in history, with almost every major bank earning substantial fee income from it.
Goldman Sachs Profit Doubles to Record, Stock Rises Nearly 8%
Goldman Sachs Q2 earnings per share were $20.98, nearly double the $10.91 from the same period last year, and far exceeding analyst estimates of $14.48. Net revenue was $203.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year. Net profit was $66.3 billion, compared to $37.2 billion in the same period last year.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs' equity trading revenue was $74.2 billion, up 72% year-over-year, breaking the record set by any bank for the third consecutive quarter. Derivatives, cash products, and prime brokerage all strengthened. Investment banking fees were $34 billion, up 55% year-over-year, with equity underwriting surging 130% and debt underwriting rising 75%. According to Barron's, Goldman Sachs acted as the lead underwriter for the SpaceX IPO in June. Per Bloomberg, the bank advised on announced M&A transactions exceeding $1 trillion in the first half of the year.
Revenue from the Asset & Wealth Management division was $46 billion, up 20% year-over-year. Assets under management reached $4.04 trillion, up from $3.29 trillion a year ago. Goldman Sachs' board increased the quarterly dividend by 11% to $5 per share, returning $53.6 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends during the quarter.
CEO David Solomon stated in the release that clients are bringing their most strategic transactions to Goldman Sachs, and these deals often drive momentum across the entire business chain.
According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, Goldman Sachs' stock rose approximately 8% during the day, hitting an all-time high intraday, its largest single-day gain since April 2025. The stock is up about 27% year-to-date.
JPMorgan Chase Net Profit of $21.2 Billion Sets Quarterly Record, But Expense Guidance Weighs on Pre-Market
JPMorgan Chase's Q2 net profit was $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, the highest quarterly profit in the company's history. However, this includes a $4.6 billion gain from its Visa stake and another $1 billion in gains from other equity investments. Excluding one-time items, net profit was $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, up 13% year-over-year. The return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 23%.
Revenue was $58 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with records set across all business lines. Equity trading revenue was $6 billion, skyrocketing 86% year-over-year. Fixed income trading revenue was $6.1 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Combined, these totaled $12.1 billion, surpassing the trading revenue record the bank set in Q1 2026. Investment banking fees were $3.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, the highest since 2021.
Management raised its full-year net interest income guidance to approximately $105.5 billion (from $103 billion), but also raised its full-year adjusted expense forecast to approximately $107.5 billion. The latter was the primary reason for the stock falling about 2% in pre-market trading. According to FX Leaders, JPMorgan Chase ultimately closed up about 2% at $341, achieving an intraday reversal.
CEO Jamie Dimon's wording was cautious. He stated the U.S. economy shows "significant resilience," with AI capital expenditure and fiscal stimulus being tailwinds, but warned that geopolitical instability, sticky inflation, swelling sovereign debt, and elevated asset valuations are "moving underground like tectonic plates."
Bank of America EPS Up 34% YoY; Citigroup's Strongest Revenue in a Decade Met with Sell-off
Bank of America's Q2 earnings per share were $1.21, up 34% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $1.12. Revenue was $31.6 billion, up 15% year-over-year. Net profit was $9.1 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Sales and trading revenue increased 33% YoY, investment banking fees rose 50% YoY, and asset management fees grew 20% YoY. The efficiency ratio (costs as a percentage of revenue) improved to 59%. CEO Brian Moynihan stated that consumers and businesses show resilience.
Citigroup's Q2 earnings per share were $3.15, surpassing the estimates of all 20 analysts surveyed (consensus estimate was $2.74). According to Bloomberg, revenue of $24.8 billion was the highest in a decade, and net profit was $5.8 billion, up 45% year-over-year. Equity trading revenue was $2.3 billion, up 45% YoY, and investment banking fees were $1.55 billion, up 44% YoY.
However, Citigroup's stock fell approximately 4.5% on the day. According to Investing.com, market dissatisfaction centered on management not raising its full-year return on equity target (maintaining ROTCE at 10%-11%), even though it has run at 13.1% year-to-date. CEO Jane Fraser stated the company chooses to reinvest excess profits into the business rather than sacrifice long-term construction for good short-term numbers. CFO Gonzalo Luchetti acknowledged that Citigroup has not been fast enough in building its equity business and that catching up to competitors will be a gradual process.
Wells Fargo's Q2 revenue was $22.62 billion, up 8.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share were $2.00, up 25% year-over-year. Net interest income was $12.3 billion, up 5% year-over-year. The stock closed slightly down 0.56%.
Two Catalysts: Geopolitical Volatility Feeds Trading Desks, SpaceX IPO Feeds Investment Banks
The drivers of this round of earnings beats are highly concentrated on two factors.
First is market volatility. The ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S., and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, pushed up oil prices, causing violent fluctuations in stock, commodity, and foreign exchange markets. This environment is highly favorable for bank trading desks. Goldman Sachs' equity trading revenue was up 72% YoY, JPMorgan Chase's was up 86% YoY, Citigroup's was up 45% YoY, and Bank of America's sales and trading revenue was up 33% YoY. According to Bloomberg, the combined Q2 trading revenue of the five major banks approached $39 billion.
Second is the SpaceX IPO. On June 12, SpaceX went public, raising $86 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, making it the largest IPO in history. Goldman Sachs acted as the lead underwriter, with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup as major joint bookrunners. According to indmoney, beyond underwriting fees, the banks also benefited from subsequent debt financing arrangements and new wealth management clients. According to data from law firm A.O. Shearman, global M&A transaction volume reached $2.8 trillion in the first half of 2026, the highest since 2021. Goldman Sachs is also a co-advisor for Anthropic's planned IPO later this year.
Morgan Stanley Reports Results Today, Expectations Already Raised by Peers
Morgan Stanley releases its Q2 earnings report before the market opens on July 15 (today).
According to Zacks data, the consensus EPS estimate is around $2.89 (revised up 4% over the past week), representing growth of approximately 35.7% year-over-year. Revenue is expected to be around $19.34 billion, up about 16.9% year-over-year. Yesterday (July 14), Morgan Stanley's stock rose about 4% following the broad beat by its peers, although its own earnings have not yet been released.
Last quarter, Morgan Stanley reported an EPS of $3.43, significantly beating expectations, with revenue of $20.6 billion, up 16% YoY, and equity trading revenue of $5.2 billion, up 25% YoY. Wealth management added $118 billion in net new assets. Using the performance of its peers as a benchmark, the market expects Morgan Stanley is likely to beat expectations, but the bar itself has been raised. Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski downgraded the stock to "Underperform" on June 30, currently one of the few bearish voices.
