解锁20%，1.25亿美元压顶，PUMP顶得住吗？
- 核心观点：Pump.fun 协议月收入高达 2840 万美元，但面对 825 亿枚（约 1.25 亿美元）团队及投资者代币首次解锁带来的巨大抛压，叠加回购规模已大幅缩水，PUMP 代币短期面临严峻考验，但其高收入与低估值特性使其在熊市中成为相对稀缺的标的。
- 关键要素：
- Pump.fun 过去 30 天收入 2840 万美元，仅次于 Hyperliquid，且已发行超 1200 万枚代币，累计收入约 10.5 亿美元。
- 7 月首次解锁 825 亿枚 PUMP（占总供应量 8.25%），价值约 1.25 亿美元，远超过去 24 小时 2800 万美元的成交量。
- 4 月虽销毁 1290 亿枚代币，但该部分已被回购锁定，不构成新买盘，无法抵消此次新增的潜在抛售压力。
- 团队和投资者共持有 3300 亿枚，后续仍有 2475 亿枚待解锁，且还有 2400 亿枚社区代币释放时间不明，供应不确定性长期存在。
- Pump.fun 回购比例已从 100% 降至 50%，6 月回购金额仅 920 万美元，较高点缩水超 80%，难以承接此次抛压。
- PUMP 市值约 6.1 亿美元，远低于月收入相近的 Hyperliquid（HYPE 市值近 150 亿美元），呈现高收入低估值特征。
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)
Even though the Meme market has noticeably cooled from its peak, Pump.fun remains one of the most profitable protocols in Web3. According to DefiLlama data, over the past 30 days, Pump.fun generated $28.4 million in protocol revenue. This surpasses Polymarket's monthly revenue of $22.12 million and is second only to Hyperliquid's $43.93 million.
Web3 Protocol Monthly Revenue Ranking
Someone launches a token, it collects fees; someone trades, it collects fees. From birth to zero, a Meme coin generates fees for the platform on every single trade. Since launching over two years ago, Pump.fun has facilitated the creation of over 12 million tokens, generating cumulative platform revenue of approximately $1.05 billion, briefly becoming the first application on Solana to break the $1 billion revenue mark.
Pump.fun uses a portion of its revenue to buy back and burn PUMP tokens, converting platform profits into buy pressure for the token. However, last night at 10 PM, this value cycle faced its biggest test. PUMP saw its first unlock of team and investor tokens, totaling 82.5 billion tokens, representing 8.25% of the total supply and 20.23% of the circulating supply before the unlock, valued at approximately $125 million.
In comparison, PUMP's trading volume over the past 24 hours was only $28 million. So, will this potential selling pressure of $125 million cause PUMP's price to plummet? How much can the platform's buyback program absorb? Is PUMP still worth buying?
April Saw the Burn of 129 Billion PUMP, Why Can't It Offset the Unlock Pressure?
On April 29th this year, Pump.fun burned 129 billion PUMP tokens in a single event, representing 12.9% of the maximum supply. This was the largest burn in PUMP's history.
In terms of quantity, the 129 billion burned tokens even exceed the 82.5 billion unlocked. However, the two cannot be directly offset. The burned PUMP tokens were largely already repurchased by the platform and held in a specific wallet; they were not freely circulating in the market. The concentrated burn simply removed these tokens permanently, without creating an additional 129 billion in buy pressure back in April.
This unlock is the complete opposite. The 82.5 billion tokens previously untradeable team and investor holdings gained the possibility of entering the market starting last night. April decreased the book total supply; July increased the potential for sellable tokens.
Furthermore, 82.5 billion is just the first tranche. Teams and investors collectively hold 330 billion PUMP tokens. This unlock covers only one-quarter of that, leaving 247.5 billion still locked. Notably, there are also 240 billion community tokens with no clear release schedule announced.
PUMP Token Distribution Chart
Combined, these two categories total 487.5 billion tokens, equivalent to 1.2 times the circulating supply before the unlock. The market must not only digest the immediate 82.5 billion tokens but also face uncertainty regarding long-term future supply.
As Unlocks Begin, Buybacks Recede
Pump.fun's most stable source of buy pressure historically came from its token buyback program.
After the buyback program launched in July 2025, Pump.fun initially directed 100% of its net protocol fees to purchasing PUMP. By September last year, the monthly buyback amount peaked at $55.3 million, even exceeding the month's protocol revenue of $42.8 million.
However, in April of this year, Pump.fun announced it would reduce the buyback ratio from 100% to 50%, diverting the other half of funds to the company for hiring, marketing, and acquisitions. In June this year, the monthly PUMP buyback amount dropped to just $9.2 million, a decline of over 80% from the peak.
PUMP Revenue vs. Token Buyback Comparison Chart
Looking at a half-year timeframe, the discrepancy is even starker. In the second half of 2025, Pump.fun spent approximately $217 million repurchasing PUMP. In the first half of 2026, it only spent $72.2 million, a 67% decline, while protocol revenue during the same period fell by only 18%.
Pump.fun remains highly profitable, but the capital flowing directly into PUMP has significantly decreased. Based on June's buyback figure of $9.2 million, it would take selling only about 7% of this unlocked tranche to offset an entire month of the platform's buyback.
A Scarce Asset in a Bear Market: PUMP Stands Out Among Few
Selling pressure is evident, but looking at the broader market, few platforms can generate such sustained high revenue.
Hyperliquid, which generates higher revenue than Pump.fun, recorded approximately $43.93 million in protocol revenue over the past 30 days. However, HYPE's current market cap is nearly $15 billion, over 20 times that of PUMP. Polymarket generated about $22.12 million in revenue over the past 30 days but has not yet issued a token. The company's previously rumored funding valuation has already reached $15 billion. Even if it issues a token in the future, the valuation will likely be high.
In contrast, Pump.fun generated $28.4 million in revenue over the past 30 days, yet PUMP's market cap is only around $610 million. It faces unlock pressure, and buybacks are shrinking, but its platform revenue is real, its business model is stable, and the token has already fallen to a relatively low valuation.
More importantly, Pump.fun does not rely on any single Meme coin hit. As long as the market continues to generate new tokens and trading activity, the platform collects fees. Betting on PUMP is essentially not betting on the next Meme coin. Instead, it's a bet that the Meme market will repeatedly create hotspots, regardless of bull or bear conditions, and that Pump.fun will continue to hold this gateway for traffic.
Selecting investment targets in a bear market isn't about finding flawless projects. It's about prioritizing, among a set of risks, the protocols that still have users, are still profitable, and still have the capacity for buybacks. From this perspective, PUMP is not perfect, but it remains one of the few high-revenue platform tokens whose valuation hasn't been bid up to the sky.
The 82.5 billion unlock tests short-term absorptive capacity, but Pump.fun's revenue determines how far PUMP can truly go. As long as this Meme machine keeps generating profits, PUMP may not necessarily follow the "unlock-and-go-to-zero" script. The current situation might actually present a good opportunity for long-term dollar-cost averaging.
