本周五海力士登陆美股，股价影响几何？

This Friday, SK Hynix lands on the US stock market. How will it impact its stock price?

This Friday, July 10th, a heavyweight in the memory chip industry is set to write a new chapter on the US stock market.

SK Hynix submitted a revised F-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 30th, proposing a dual listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker SKHY. The offering aims to raise approximately $29.4 billion, entirely through newly issued American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). If realized, this would surpass the $21.8 billion record set by Alibaba in New York in 2014, becoming the largest ADR initial public offering in history.

How can a Korean chip giant secure an order book worth nearly $30 billion on the US stock market? After this massive influx of capital, will SK Hynix's stock price leverage the momentum to rise further, or will it instead mark a turning point for a short-term peak?

The answer may lie within the bullish logic and potential risks outlined below.

1. Short-Term Bullish Reasons

1. Valuation Discount Expected to Narrow – The Core Bullish Thesis

The first and most immediate opportunity SK Hynix faces is valuation repair.

Based on earnings expectations for the next 12 months, SK Hynix's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only about 6.2x. In comparison, its main competitor, Micron Technology, trades at roughly 7x on the same basis – and this is after Micron's 14% plunge last week. Notably, just on June 22nd, Micron's valuation was above 11x.

HSBC's research team highlighted the long-term cause of this valuation gap: over the past 13 years, Micron has enjoyed an average valuation premium of 35% relative to SK Hynix. The reasons behind this are practical – Micron has better access to US domestic investors, a more shareholder-friendly corporate governance policy, and higher stock price elasticity (beta) due to a smaller earnings base.

HSBC therefore offers a key assumption: with SK Hynix listing on Nasdaq, its ADRs could command a 20% valuation premium. This implies that simply the factor of "gaining more attention and capital inflow from US investors" could drive SK Hynix's valuation closer to Micron's.

2. Inflow of Passive Capital – Automatic Buying from ETFs

The ADR listing brings not only attention from actively managed funds but, more importantly, opens the channel for passive capital.

Once SKHY is listed on Nasdaq, it becomes eligible for inclusion in major US stock indices. The most direct path is entry into the Nasdaq-100 Index – the tracking benchmark for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which manages approximately $482 billion in assets. Entering the Nasdaq-100 means trillions of dollars in global passive management funds will be forced to allocate to SKHY, creating a sustained and stable stream of incremental buying.

For an Asian chip giant previously trading mainly on the Korea Exchange, this "inflow" effect of passive capital is significant. It can not only notably enhance daily stock liquidity but also lower stock price volatility over the long term – because ETF fund inflows follow a relatively regular pattern, making drastic entries and exits less likely.

3. Active Arbitrage Capital – The "Balancer" of Cross-Border Price Spreads

Price discrepancies between the ADR and its parent stock on the Korean KOSPI market are almost inevitable. For hedge funds, this difference is a natural "arbitrage printing machine".

The historical playbook is already written: after Alibaba and TSMC listed in the US, significant price spreads emerged between their ADRs and parent stocks, attracting substantial arbitrage capital. The arbitrageurs' logic is simple: buy in the cheaper market, sell in the more expensive one, and lock in risk-free profits through cross-market hedging.

While this arbitrage activity focuses on "capturing spreads" at the micro level, it serves to flatten valuation differences between the two markets at the macro level. In the short term, active arbitrage capital often provides support to the KOSPI parent stock – because arbitrageurs need to buy the parent stock in the Korean market to hedge their short positions in the ADR.

4. Solid Fundamentals Provide a Robust Valuation Anchor

All narratives of valuation repair ultimately need fundamental support. SK Hynix's fundamentals are arguably among the strongest in the global chip industry right now.

According to company guidance and market expectations, SK Hynix is projected to achieve a net profit of 221 trillion KRW (approx. $144 billion) and revenue of 355 trillion KRW (approx. $231 billion) for fiscal year 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 415% and 265%, respectively. For comparison, Micron is expected to see its net profit surge 876% to about $83 billion in its current fiscal year (ending Aug 31), with revenue jumping 247% to $130 billion.

More noteworthy is SK Hynix's structural advantage in the global memory chip landscape:

• DRAM: Global market share second (29.1%)
• HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): Global market share first (56.4%)
• NAND: Global market share second (18.5%)

HBM is one of the tightest links in the current AI chip supply chain, and SK Hynix's absolute leading position in this niche provides it with pricing power and profit margins far exceeding those of the traditional DRAM business.

2. Risks That Cannot Be Ignored

1. Supply Overhang – Nearly $30 Billion in New Equity

The $29.4 billion ADR size, while historic, brings a direct side effect: dilution.

According to regulatory filings, this ADR offering corresponds to 17.79 million newly issued shares (not a reduction by existing shareholders), with a total value of approximately 45.45 trillion KRW (about $29.65 billion). This means SK Hynix's total share capital will increase.

The direct impact of new shares on existing shareholders is the dilution of earnings per share (EPS). From a trading perspective, such a large wave of new equity entering the market in the short term could also create direct supply pressure on the stock price.

More subtle is the impact on the arbitrage front. Since ADR pricing typically references US market valuation levels (often higher than the KOSPI parent stock), arbitrageurs might choose to buy the relatively cheaper KOSPI parent stock in Korea while shorting the relatively more expensive ADR in the US market. While this operation flattens the cross-border spread, it could simultaneously exert downward pressure on the KOSPI parent stock in the short term.

2. Prior Gains Have Already Been Substantial – The Stock Price May Be Overextended

When discussing the catalytic effect of the ADR listing, one cannot ignore a premise: SK Hynix's Korean stock has already rallied significantly over the past year.

As of recently, SK Hynix's Korea-listed shares have surged approximately 710% over the past 12 months – even after a correction of about 20% from its June peak. Since the beginning of this year, the stock has soared over 220%, with its market capitalization once exceeding $1.1 trillion.

Such gains imply that the current SK Hynix stock price already incorporates a great deal of optimism regarding the HBM super-cycle and future growth. While the incremental capital from the ADR listing is certainly positive, whether it can propel the stock to break higher after already multiplying several times is a question worth pondering.

There is always a valuation filter between a "good company" and a "good price".

3. The Cyclical Shadow of the Memory Industry – Samsung's Earnings Sounded an Alarm

One of the most fundamental characteristics of the chip industry is its strong cyclicality. The recent earnings report from peer Samsung Electronics has already sounded an alarm for the entire industry.

On July 7th, Samsung reported its best-ever quarterly results – record-high profits. However, on the day of the earnings release, Samsung's stock price fell nearly 7%. On the same day, SK Hynix's stock also declined.

Why did the best earnings report yield the worst stock price reaction?

Because the market clearly saw that Samsung's profits came almost entirely from the super-cycle dividend of rising DRAM and NAND chip prices. This is not Samsung's unique competitive advantage (alpha); it's a cyclical dividend (beta) the entire industry is enjoying. When the whole industry is making money from "cyclical profits", the market's pricing focus shifts from who executes better to how long this cycle can last.

The fact that SK Hynix and Samsung fell in sync indicates investors are re-pricing the cyclical peak for the entire memory industry. While the ADR listing can bring incremental capital, if the industry itself is approaching a cyclical turning point, the driving force of this capital could be offset by stronger cyclical headwinds.

3. Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

SK Hynix's listing on Nasdaq is a milestone event. The $29.4 billion fundraising scale itself signifies global capital's recognition of the AI storage narrative. The valuation repair, passive capital inflow, and arbitrage support brought by the ADR listing indeed constitute noteworthy short-term catalysts.

However, investors must also clearly recognize that this ADR issuance involves new shares, not a reduction of existing holdings. The substantial prior gains have already priced in some expectations, and the strong cyclicality of the memory chip industry is flashing warning signs through Samsung's earnings.

Based on historical experience and current bullish logic, SK Hynix's stock price may still receive some short-term boost after the ADR listing, especially from incremental US domestic capital. But for rational long-term investors, potential risk factors – dilution effects, excessive prior gains, and the possibility of a cyclical peak – must also hold significant weight in their decision-making process.

Final Thoughts

SK Hynix's ADR listing provides US stock investors with a direct window to participate in the global HBM leader. If you are interested in the investment logic of the memory chip industry and AI infrastructure, this is an event worth watching.

In response to potential market volatility during the early stages of this new listing, BIT has introduced phased transaction support mechanisms (such as bearing up to 50% of losses within limits, offering SK Hynix fractional shares for meeting holding targets, etc.) to help investors navigate and smooth their cost curve more reasonably during the initial exploration phase. For investors focused on the AI semiconductor cycle and seeking to optimize their asset allocation tools, staying informed about quality channels and official updates (e.g., BIT US Stocks Official X: @BITstocks_CN) can help capture the liquidity dividends of top-tier global chip assets more lightly and in a timely manner.

Disclaimer

This article is a contributed piece from a special author. The market observations, data analyses, and judgments contained herein represent the author's personal views and do not constitute the official stance or research opinion of the BIT platform, nor do they serve as any investment advice or solicitation. BIT makes no express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content of this article. Prices and data mentioned are as of the time of publication and may become invalid due to market changes. Cryptocurrencies and related securities are highly volatile assets; investment involves the risk of principal loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should independently decide whether to participate in trading and consult independent professional advisors when necessary.