当市场"提前定价了完美"，三星业绩再好也不够好了

Original Author: Dong Jing

Original Source: Wall Street News

Samsung Electronics delivered a historic quarterly report with a 19-fold surge in profit, yet its share price plunged sharply in a single day. This wasn't because the performance was insufficient; rather, the market had already priced in "perfection" beforehand. With the earnings report released, it simply became a signal for capital to exit.

On July 7th, an article from Wall Street News reported that Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit surged approximately 19 times year-on-year to 89.4 trillion Korean Won (approximately $58.4 billion). This not only set a new quarterly record but also surpassed Nvidia's operating profit of $53.536 billion from the previous quarter, making Samsung the company with the highest quarterly operating profit globally. Revenue doubled to 171 trillion Korean Won, with both figures exceeding analysts' average expectations. However, following the earnings release, Samsung's share price fell by as much as 8% in a single day, South Korea's KOSPI index dropped 6%, and SK Hynix fell over 7%.

Another Wall Street News article also noted that "Buy the rumor, sell the news" logic played out clearly once again. The night before the earnings release, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index rose 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.3%. As the good news materialized, capital quickly fled.

Brian Cho, a portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, stated bluntly that what the market truly wants to see is whether the improvement in free cash flow can form a sustainable, step-change trajectory, and how management treats shareholder returns—the pricing logic has shifted from "how fast are profits growing?" to "can these profits be turned into real cash distributed to shareholders?"

Furthermore, this sharp reversal in market sentiment has a macroeconomic backdrop. Last week, Meta was the first to hint at curbing capital expenditures, triggering the largest two-day sell-off in high-beta momentum stocks since the COVID-19 pandemic.Samsung's decline also pressured peer chip stocks like SK Hynix and Micron, putting the entire high-valuation logic of the memory chip sector under systemic revaluation.

Strong Performance, But Not Good Enough

According to the Wall Street News article, Samsung's second-quarter operating profit is estimated at 89.4 trillion Korean Won, up 56% quarter-over-quarter, beating the average analyst estimate of 84.2 trillion Korean Won. Revenue for the period was 171 trillion Korean Won, surpassing the market estimate of 169.2 trillion Korean Won, representing approximately 129% growth year-over-year. The company plans to release its full earnings report on July 30th, which will disclose net profit and segment data for each business division.

The core driver of this growth was the continued tight supply of memory chips. Robust demand from AI data centers for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has led manufacturers to shift production capacity towards premium products. This has caused a supply shortage of conventional DRAM and NAND memory chips, pushing prices broadly higher.

According to HSBC data, the average selling price (ASP) for DRAM rose over 40% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, while NAND prices increased by over 50%. Citigroup Research data is similar, showing a 44% sequential increase in average DRAM prices and a 53% increase for NAND during the same period.

However, while the 171 trillion Korean Won revenue exceeded the average analyst estimate, it fell short of the more optimistic prediction of 173.9 trillion Korean Won from some institutions. Against a backdrop of already elevated valuations, this minor shortfall was enough to trigger profit-taking.

The spotlight on the memory business obscured several cracks in the company's overall structure. Analysts expect losses in Samsung's foundry and Logic System IC (LSI) business to widen further this quarter, partly due to bonus expenses being proportionally allocated across the entire semiconductor division's costs.

In May, Samsung reached a compensation agreement with its chip division employees, linking performance bonuses to operating profit. The agreement stipulates that, subject to meeting specific profitability targets, 10.5% of the semiconductor division's annual operating profit will be set aside for special bonuses. Some analysts point out that without this provision, Samsung's operating profit would have exceeded market expectations even further.

AI Demand Supports Memory Boom, But Marginal Signals Weaken

The core logic driving this super-cycle in memory chips remains intact: the massive global expansion of AI data centers has created robust demand for high-end memory chips, with memory shortages becoming a key bottleneck for AI development.

Numerous industry executives, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap, have previously issued warnings about this. Major manufacturers are prioritizing the supply of high-end memory products, causing a simultaneous shortage of conventional memory products. Analysts predict the supply shortage will persist at least until 2027.

Market research firm Counterpoint estimates that the average operating profit margin for the three major memory manufacturers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—will remain in the 75% to 80% range for the second quarter. In its report, the firm noted, "some views suggest that such high profit margins constitute 'excessive profiteering'" and warned, "if this situation persists, memory manufacturers could face regulatory pressure."

Additionally, the Wall Street News article mentioned, more noteworthy than the earnings themselves are the signals emanating from the upstream part of the industry chain. Meta recently hinted at setting a cap on AI capital expenditures. The market interpreted this as an early warning that Big Tech's AI infrastructure investment might be peaking, directly triggering one of the most severe two-day sell-offs in high-beta momentum stocks since the pandemic.

Jean Boivin's team at BlackRock Investment Institute put it more directly: the core of the AI bubble debate isn't current valuations, but whether future profits can be sustained at extraordinary levels. If AI cannot translate its current scarcity into tangible productivity improvements, today's extremely high profit expectations will face a correction.

Samsung Underperforms SK Hynix; South Korea Bets on AI Chip Dominance

From a national strategic perspective, the South Korean government views Samsung and SK Hynix as core pillars for securing global AI leadership. Samsung Group and SK Group plan to each build two chip factories in southwestern South Korea, with total investment reaching 800 trillion Korean Won, aiming to rapidly expand production capacity. South Korea's goal is to double memory chip production within five years, and Samsung has already announced it will invest over $70 billion in capacity expansion and R&D by 2026.

In terms of stock price performance, Samsung has gained approximately 165% year-to-date, but this significantly lags behind competitor SK Hynix's gain of about 260%. The divergence primarily stems from differences in product mix—SK Hynix's business is highly concentrated on HBM memory catering to AI computing demands, whereas Samsung's portfolio is more diversified, spanning chips and consumer electronics. This divergence sends a clear signal: in the current race, focus is more favored by capital than sheer scale.

Samsung's full earnings report will be released at the end of this month. The segmented data from each business division will then tell the market how much real value has been generated from this wave of AI capital expenditure. That number will become a crucial reference point for the next phase of the AI hardware investment thesis.