世界杯爆冷频现，预测市场的“笨蛋钱”给俺看乐了

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

The World Cup, 20 days in.

Prediction market trading volumes have climbed steadily, with massive gains and losses unfolding in succession. Previously, Odaily Planet Daily reviewed the "massive wins & brutal losses" cases after the World Cup kicked off, and also detailed how to build smart money copy-trading strategies and tools.

Today, beyond joking about "big smart money," we want to discuss whether classic loss cases can offer contrarian reference value.

Spain vs. Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper's 7 Sensational Saves; Whale Loses $1 Million Trying to Make $85,000

Vozinha, the 40-year-old Cape Verdean goalkeeper, looked breathlessly at the opponents on the field, his body slightly hunched, ready at any moment to parry the ball kicked towards him.

For a goalkeeper valued at only €50,000, not many had high hopes for him or the island nation of Cape Verde before the match. After all, their opponent was a World Cup powerhouse – Spain. Their superstar Lamine Yamal alone is worth €200 million, ranking first among all World Cup players and making his value 4,000 times that of Vozinha. Spain's total squad value is a staggering €1.2 billion, and they were pre-tournament favorites. La Liga boasts countless stars from giants like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid.

But football is not merely a game of comparing squad values; it is a live athletic contest.

For the players of the Cape Verde national team, simply standing on the World Cup stage, enjoying the joy of football and the adrenaline rush of competition, was enough. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: As commentator Guan Zeyuan shared, Cape Verde is an Atlantic island nation with a total land area of about 4,000 square kilometers. They hold football tournaments on each island to determine the winning team, ultimately selecting players for the World Cup squad, somewhat like regional events such as China's "Village BA" or "Supertown League.")

During the match, Spain unleashed 27 shots with 7 on target, but ultimately, all attacks were successfully thwarted by Vozinha and his teammates. As the referee's final whistle blew, the Spain vs. Cape Verde scoreline ended 0-0. This shocking result left many prediction market players completely wiped out.

Before the match, @betoor619 invested $1 million to buy "Spain beats Cape Verde" at 92 cents. To many, this was seen as a "sure-thing arbitrage play in the prediction market," with some even expecting a "one-sided slaughter and high-scoring affair."

But the Cape Verde team, particularly goalkeeper Vozinha, refused to accept that outcome. Their coordination was disciplined, their defense compact, their tackles aggressive, and their counter-attacking strategy executed exceptionally well.

In the end, @betoor619 did not earn the expected $85,000 from the "arbitrage play," instead losing his entire $1 million principal.

This match might have been the starting point for the frequent upsets of this World Cup, where strong teams were held to draws by underdogs. Subsequently, many title contenders were held to draws by lesser-known or weaker teams in the group stage, making betting on a draw the best choice in the prediction market.

Recommended reading: "Whether You Know Football or Not, Betting on a Draw is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?"

Portugal vs. DR Congo Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo's Glory Fades; Smart Money Loses Over $240,000 in Lesson

On June 18, in Group K of the World Cup group stage, the highly anticipated strong team Portugal faced DR Congo, a team making its World Cup debut.

According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, the Portuguese men's team ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands, with relatively outstanding overall strength. The presence of Cristiano Ronaldo, a "5-time Champions League winner, 5-time Ballon d'Or winner, 6-time World Cup participant, and all-time top scorer," gave many fans confidence in Portugal's performance before the match. Many expected Ronaldo to score in this game, becoming the "first player to score in six consecutive World Cups" and surpassing Messi.

On the other side, DR Congo ranked only 45th in the FIFA World Rankings. This tournament marked their return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.

In terms of player valuations, Portugal's total squad value exceeded €1 billion, including two "€100 million men" and eight top-tier players valued over €40 million. DR Congo's total squad value was approximately €150 million, just one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo expressed their hope to "rewrite humiliating history and at least reach the World Cup knockout stage and the top 32."

Back to the match, Ronaldo was in the starting lineup, but he recorded 0 shots on target from 3 attempts. Portugal managed only 1 shot on target from 7 attempts, showing a clear lack of attacking firepower.

Although 19-year-old João Neves scored a lightning-fast goal for Portugal within the first 7 minutes, DR Congo equalized deep into first-half stoppage time, a period when Portugal was most susceptible to complacency and lapses in concentration.

Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's defensive counter-attacks were excellent, with tight man-marking. Three center-backs averaging over 185 cm further limited Ronaldo's impact, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, ultimately failing to secure an opening victory.

In the prediction market, a 'smart money' address with a pre-match win rate of 49% spent over $243,000 predicting "Portugal beats DR Congo" at an average entry price of 76 cents, ending in a loss.

In today's knockout match between England and DR Congo, DR Congo actually scored first thanks to their counter-attacking strategy. Ultimately, England narrowly won 2-1 thanks to Harry Kane's brace, narrowly avoiding a second consecutive "underdog holds or beats favorite" upset.

Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde Draw: 'Dumb Money' Bets on Cape Verde Win, Loses $80,000

In World Cup predictions, every time you try to apply an experience from the past, the trend reverses.

In the earlier group stage, Cape Verde, thanks to goalkeeper Vozinha and the team's strict execution of their counter-attacking strategy, overcame opponents and later held Uruguay to another draw.

Consequently, the "big brains" in the prediction market boldly predicted a Cape Verde victory before their match against Saudi Arabia.

However, in the end, Cape Verde, relying once again on their extremely resilient defensive style and unified team strategy, drew 0-0 with Saudi Arabia.

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, the top World Cup contrarian indicator address @Zzzz87 made another wrong prediction, losing another $80,000 by betting on Cape Verde to beat Saudi Arabia. Since the World Cup started, this address had lost a total of $620,000, with its win rate dropping below 40%. Generally, the larger the position, the lower the win rate.

Over the past week, @Zzzz87 has learned from his losses, changed his approach, stopped stubbornly betting on underdog upsets, and instead switched to betting on strong teams to win outright. Sure enough, as the knockout stage began, upsets against strong teams decreased. @Zzzz87 's "bet on strong teams" strategy quickly proved effective, with profit margins ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.

Therefore, although this address incurred losses of about $255,000 in the past month, its profits in the last week amounted to around $269,000.

Currently, this address holds positions in several prediction events, including "Switzerland vs Algeria," "Spain vs Austria," "Portugal vs Croatia," and "Argentina vs Cape Verde," with amounts ranging from a few thousand dollars to $36,000. The outcomes will be decided tomorrow.

Football is Round; Anything is Possible

Having looked at many cases, has the former "dumb contrarian indicator" learned its lesson and turned into "smart money," or will the "top contrarian curse" take effect again?

It's hard to say for sure because some have deleted their accounts, refusing to be observed under "survivorship bias," while others have both wins and losses, or hedge across multiple accounts.

Whether playing or predicting a match, the only certainty is "uncertainty."

The World Cup's outcome is not determined by comparing squad values, nor by national strength or development systems, and certainly not by the will or wealth of external participants. Whether you follow the smart money or fade the dumb money, you need to watch the games, enjoy them, and adjust flexibly.