ไม่แตะเงินจริง ตีตลาดก่อน: Meta กำลังคิดอะไรอยู่กับตลาดทำนายผล «Arena»?

Original Author: Claude, TechFlow

Foreword: According to a New York Times report on June 23, Zuckerberg has instructed his team to develop a standalone prediction market app called "Arena." Initially, it will use a points system rather than real money for betting, but the possibility of introducing actual funds in the future has not been ruled out. Following the news, shares of DraftKings and Robinhood both fell, with market concerns that Meta, leveraging its distribution advantage of 3.56 billion daily active users, could deliver a disruptive blow to Polymarket and Kalshi.

Zuckerberg has once again set his sights on a business built by others.

According to a New York Times report on June 23, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently directed a small team to develop a prediction market application, internally codenamed "Arena." The app will operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger but will leverage Meta's vast user pool across its social platforms for traffic. CNBC subsequently confirmed this news from informed sources.

Two knowledgeable employees told the New York Times that Arena is currently positioned internally at the company as an "experimental project, but with the highest priority." Meta has not yet commented on this.

What is Meta's Strategy?

Arena's most notable design choice is that it will not involve real money in its initial phase. Users will participate in predictions through a game-like points system, rather than using actual funds to bet like on Polymarket or Kalshi. However, reports indicate Meta has not ruled out the possibility of introducing real currency transactions in the future.

The logic behind this strategy is not hard to understand. Prediction markets involving real money are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and must meet a series of compliance requirements. Polymarket requires users to deposit cryptocurrency, and Kalshi requires KYC and fiat currency deposits, whereas Arena requires nothing at the initial stage. This minimizes user acquisition costs, allowing them to first cultivate the habit of prediction using a points system before deciding on the next steps.

Meta's distribution advantage is the core variable in the entire equation. According to company data released in April, Meta's apps collectively have 3.56 billion daily active users. This number dwarfs the user base of Polymarket and Kalshi. Even if Arena doesn't involve financial transactions, simply being able to channel a small fraction of these users into the prediction market behavioral model would be enough to reshape the entire industry landscape.

Prediction Market Monthly Volume Surges to $24 Billion, Potential Competitor Stocks Fall

Following the news, the market reacted swiftly. According to CNBC, DraftKings shares fell over 2% during trading, Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, also declined, and Robinhood moved lower as well.

Over the past year, the rise of prediction market platforms has continuously eroded the market share of traditional sports betting companies, and Arena's emergence has intensified investor anxiety. Meta's own stock price remained largely unaffected.

Prediction markets entered an explosive growth phase in 2026. According to Pew Research Center's analysis of The Block data, the combined monthly trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket surged from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $24 billion in April 2026. Bernstein estimates that by the end of the 2020s, the annual trading volume of prediction markets could reach $1 trillion.

Competition in this sector has already become intense. Kalshi's valuation skyrocketed to approximately $22 billion this year, and Polymarket is considering a new funding round at a valuation of around $15 billion. Trading platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Interactive Brokers have also integrated event contract features. Even Trump Media & Technology Group has announced its own prediction market plans.

Not the First Time: Meta Launched Forecast in 2020, Shut it Down Two Years Later

Arena is not Meta's first foray into prediction markets. In 2020, Meta launched an app called Forecast, which also used virtual points instead of real money, allowing users to predict current events and trends. The product was born in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, Forecast was shut down.

Zuckerberg's product strategy has historically followed this pattern: identify a validated category, quickly replicate it, and then use Meta's distribution power to overwhelm the first movers. Instagram Stories was a copy of Snapchat, Reels was a response to TikTok, and Threads was a pursuit of Twitter (now X). Arena follows the same playbook.

According to reports, Arena is part of a broader plan within Meta to "develop new applications based on emerging online social behaviors." Against the backdrop of major social platforms approaching user growth saturation, Zuckerberg is seeking new user engagement scenarios. Meta is also simultaneously testing another standalone app called Meta Photos, which uses artificial intelligence to generate new media content.

What This Means for Crypto Prediction Markets

The threat Arena poses to Polymarket is worth noting for the crypto industry. Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain and is one of the most widely cited examples of on-chain infrastructure being applied in the real world. A Meta product that can reach hundreds of millions of non-crypto users and offers similar functionality could potentially divert Polymarket's attention and trading volume.

However, the other side of the coin is that Meta's entry could also grow the entire pie. Prediction markets remain a relatively niche category, and by introducing billions of users to the behavioral pattern of "betting on event outcomes," Arena could, in turn, cultivate a potential user base for Polymarket and Kalshi.

Currently, prediction markets also face increasing regulatory and legal challenges. Multiple states have sued prediction market platforms for violating gambling laws, and a series of insider trading cases have emerged at the federal level. In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier was charged with allegedly using classified military operations to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket. Arena's choice to launch with a points system is, to some extent, a way to avoid these regulatory minefields.

Arena is still in development with no public launch timeline. But considering Zuckerberg's track record of execution and Meta's resource endowment, even though the product hasn't taken shape yet, the mere news itself has already caused a price change in the market.