คำตอบ: หุ้นสหรัฐ "ตัวแทนยุคสมัย" ปรับพอร์ตล่าสุด: 20% ทุ่ม Anthropic, 90,000 ล้านชอร์ต NVIDIA, เงินพุ่งเข้าสู่ไฟฟ้าและหน่วยความจำ

Compiled & Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Speakers: Josh Kale, Marketing at AnthropicAI; Ejaaz Ahamadeen, former Product Manager at Coinbase

Podcast: Limitless Podcast

Original Title: Leopold Aschenbrenner says "No More Stocks！"

Release Date: June 17, 2026

Key Takeaways

Leopold Aschenbrenner, considered one of the most aggressive AI investors globally, has been shorting NVIDIA, ASML, and Oracle with roughly a $9 billion notional position in public markets, while simultaneously moving capital into deeper AI infrastructure and model assets like power, memory, data center networking, and Anthropic. The two hosts believe this does not signal the bursting of the AI bubble, but rather a rotation signal where infrastructure trades shift from "chips first" to "energy, network, and data center construction first." This interpretation is rapidly gaining market significance, especially following NVIDIA's recent $25 billion bond issuance and the surge in Anthropic's valuation.

Key Insights

Leopold's Core Trading Logic

• "The classic 'picks and shovels' trade in AI has become too crowded, and Leopold's recent position changes are signaling exactly that."
• "His judgment isn't that AI infrastructure has peaked, but that certain layers of the infrastructure stack, especially semiconductors and traditional hot favorites, have become overly crowded."
• "If the question becomes where capital will flow next, there are two answers. The first and most direct is towards the next real infrastructure bottlenecks, namely power, memory, and data center networking. The second answer is that mysterious investment that was only revealed a few weeks ago."
• "His bets are consistently on very infrastructure-oriented things, investing in both these optical companies and power-related companies."
• "If he's cautious on NVIDIA, capital will go to power, memory, and the like; at the same time, he also wants to invest directly in the 'mine' itself, rather than just buying more 'shovels', and Anthropic is his favorite mine."

Signals from NVIDIA's Financing

• "The issue isn't whether NVIDIA will continue to make money, but why a company with extremely high profit margins and already plenty of cash on hand would borrow an additional $25 billion externally."
• "If a company is aggressively buying back stock and dramatically increasing dividends in the same month it's borrowing money, it's obviously not borrowing because it's short of cash. A more reasonable explanation is that this is cheap capital, and there's a subtle shift happening in how the AI bull run is being financed."

The Next Wave of AI Infrastructure Dividends

• "The real bottleneck is no longer just GPUs, but power, memory, data center networking, and the ability to actually build these things."
• "You can raise as much money as you want, but you can't build data centers fast enough, scale up memory chip capacity fast enough, or expand the grid, power lines, and related infrastructure instantly. There aren't enough people on the ground, and approvals, regulations, and various procedures are blocking you."
• "Whoever has the ability to build data centers will make the money."

Optical Modules, Copper, and Fiber Optics

• "As GPU clusters grow larger, copper wires get hotter, energy loss increases, and efficiency becomes poor. In this scenario, fiber optics becomes the next upgrade path."
• "For high-bandwidth short-distance transmission, copper is almost the only material everyone wants to use. Only when it becomes unsuitable, such as distances being too long or heat too high, do you switch to fiber. So currently, there's strong combined market demand for both copper and fiber."
• "Copper futures have been strong recently, essentially because everyone needs it. It's the most critical base material for short-distance, high-bandwidth transmission, while fiber optics is the next step."
• Copper remains the most critical material for short-range, high-bandwidth transmission, but once distances increase or heat becomes too high, a switch to fiber optics is necessary.
• "The next wave of capital will flow to infrastructure companies that don't sound particularly exciting."

Why Energy is the Safest Bet

• "I've always been bullish on energy because even if AI demand slows down, energy itself remains a global necessity, and this demand will only increase."
• "The single trend that will continue to rise regardless of the scenario is our demand for energy, electricity, and power. These are the companies I'm most willing to hold long-term."
• "What I most want to follow are companies that Jensen is investing in while also intersecting with Leopold's logic. So right now, the stock I'm closest to copy-trading is Marvell."
• "The best long-term positions aren't necessarily the hottest chip companies, but the power infrastructure that is unavoidable no matter the macro scenario."

Leopold's AI Investment Portfolio

Josh Kale:

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24-year-old solely focused on AI investing, is now widely regarded by the market as the world's top AI investor. Rumors suggest his fund's notional positions exceed $20 billion. When we looked at Ejaaz's post a month ago, the fund size was only $13.7 billion, meaning it's essentially doubling every quarter.

This time, we've obtained several significant new developments in his recent investment moves. In our previous episode, we discussed his portfolio, and the most surprising thing then was that he was shorting a company almost everyone knows – NVIDIA, the world's most valuable and hottest AI stock. Many wondered why he would take a short position of over $9 billion against such a company.

Now we have a new clue that might explain this. NVIDIA is actually raising capital, and it's doing so through bond issuance. On the surface, this seems unreasonable. Why would a behemoth like NVIDIA, with its massive scale and extremely high profit margins, need to raise another $25 billion through a debt offering just completed? Today, we want to combine this with Leopold's portfolio to discuss why he's made so much money, what he's looking at next, and what this NVIDIA financing really means.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

Let me give you some background. Leopold Aschenbrenner was formerly a researcher at OpenAI. About a year and a half to two years ago, he raised a fund. Initially, it wasn't very large – I think around $200 million. But based on his latest 13F filing, his fund's public holdings are already worth $13.7 billion.

So naturally, the market is very curious about his positions, his core investment logic, and where his next big trade will be. To understand this, you need to know that until about a month ago, Leopold was very optimistic about the entire AI sector, especially the "picks and shovels" logic, meaning NVIDIA and other upstream hardware suppliers like GPUs.

But about a month ago, the market discovered he isn't that bullish on the semiconductor line. He still likes the real bottlenecks like memory and power, and probably new types of cloud providers, but he particularly doesn't like the world's most valuable company, NVIDIA. More specifically, he has roughly $9 billion in bearish positions against NVIDIA, ASML, Oracle, and a few other companies seen as core beneficiaries of AI infrastructure.

The Logic Behind Shorting NVIDIA

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

When this came out, many people started worrying, thinking the AI bubble might be about to burst. On the surface, NVIDIA's GPUs are still selling well, and demand hasn't shown any significant weakness. So what's the problem?

Later, we uncovered several new clues, the most important being that NVIDIA just raised $25 billion externally through bond financing. This means it's not just using its own cash on hand but is adding leverage. So the question becomes: Why would the world's most profitable company, with the highest margins and strongest cash flow, go outside to borrow $25 billion?

Josh Kale:

And initially, they only planned to raise $20 billion, but they ended up expanding it to $25 billion, with subscriptions exceeding 3 times the offering. Last time we talked about this portfolio, we said not to worry about the bubble yet, because while these companies have huge capital expenditures, their revenues are also high enough to theoretically support expansion from their own balance sheets.

But this is NVIDIA's first significant off-balance-sheet financing since 2021, rather than directly using its own cash. I recall it currently has over $12 billion in cash. Putting it all together creates a strange tension: Leopold is shorting on one side, and on the other, NVIDIA, seemingly with infinite cash and profits, is issuing debt. So what's happening?

Deconstructing NVIDIA's Bond Financing

Josh Kale: Ejaaz, can you break down this specific transaction? Because this isn't ordinary financing; it's a bond issuance. Ultimately, NVIDIA's balance sheet now has an additional $25 billion, and the interest rate seems very low.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

Let me lay out both explanations. NVIDIA originally had about $13.7 billion in cash on hand, meaning it could easily spend its own money. So why raise external capital? The simplest analogy is buying a house. Many people take out a mortgage even if they have the cash, because they can use their own capital for other things, and debt financing, if cheap enough, is more advantageous.

Interest rates haven't been favorable in recent years, but if you're NVIDIA, one of the most valuable and sought-after companies globally, you can borrow on excellent terms. The $25 billion bond offering, with maturities ranging from 2 to 30 years, is practically very cheap money, with rates close to US Treasury yields.

Moreover, the offering was oversubscribed by about 4 times. In other words, there was $85 billion in capital trying to get into that $25 billion allocation. NVIDIA could pretty much pick and choose its investors. If you look at the official line, NVIDIA says this is primarily a financial arrangement to repay and refinance some existing debt. Google did something very similar a few weeks ago and again in February this year. So you can accept this explanation as financial optimization.

But the other side is hard to ignore: In the past month and a half, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, and several other hyperscale cloud providers have all been increasing external financing. Some are issuing debt, others are selling stock. Maybe Leopold's view isn't entirely without merit. Could this be a sign that the bubble is starting to wobble, that the house of cards is shaking? However, if you look solely at the financial structure, it doesn't clearly point to danger yet.

Josh Kale:

I see it the same way. A $9 billion short on NVIDIA is a really huge position. But while researching, we also noticed another thing: On May 18th, NVIDIA's board just authorized an additional $80 billion in buybacks and increased the dividend from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share, a 25-fold increase.

If a company is aggressively repurchasing shares and massively increasing dividends in the same month it's borrowing money, it's clearly not borrowing because it's strapped for cash. The more reasonable explanation is that this is cheap capital, and there is a subtle shift in the financing methods of this AI bull run. Everyone wants to participate in these capital moves. NVIDIA also realizes that issuing debt is even cheaper than other financing methods, so it just went ahead and did it. At least for now, NVIDIA itself is still doing very well.

Why He Adjusted His Positions

Josh Kale: This brings us back to another question. What is Leopold thinking? Why did his judgment change? The stock chart you showed indicates NVIDIA's performance hasn't been particularly strong lately, but it hasn't been terrible either. It's still the world's largest company near a $5 trillion market cap. A 7% drop in a month is nothing compared to the surge in other AI stocks.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

I don't think NVIDIA is going away. Its GPUs, including the CPU product line just launched a few weeks ago, will perform very well. Demand for AI products is exponentially exceeding supply, and the core supplier of machines that can truly meet this demand is currently still NVIDIA.

But I do feel that the classic 'picks and shovels' trade in AI has become too crowded, and Leopold's recent position changes are signaling exactly that. Looking at his latest 13F filing, his bearish positions are clearly leaning against the semiconductor line, including NVIDIA, ASML, Oracle, and a few other infrastructure-level companies.

Yet simultaneously, he is heavily positioned in memory, power, and new types of cloud computing. This suggests that his judgment isn't that AI infrastructure has peaked, but that certain layers of the infrastructure stack, especially semiconductors and traditional hot favorites, have become overly crowded.

If the question is where capital will go next, there are two answers. The first and most direct is towards the next real infrastructure bottlenecks, i.e., power, memory, data center networking. The second answer points to that mysterious investment that was revealed only a few weeks ago.

The Unexpectedly Revealed Anthropic Position

Josh Kale:

This is the most surprising one for me. I only found out after you mentioned it yesterday. My first reaction was disbelief. Could Leopold's fund, 'Situational Awareness', really have 20% allocated to Anthropic equity? Rumors suggest this company accounts for about one-fifth of Leopold's fund. The Wall Street Journal and several other media outlets have reported this, and people very close to the deal have confirmed it.

This makes it a completely unanticipated card in his portfolio. A 13F filing only discloses public market holdings, not private equity, and Anthropic is precisely a large piece of unlisted equity. This is also why people are starting to understand why the market estimates his portfolio value at $20 billion.

การเงิน

ลงทุน

AI

ยินดีต้อนรับเข้าร่วมชุมชนทางการของ Odaily

กลุ่มสมาชิก：

https://t.me/Odaily_News

กลุ่มสนทนา：

https://t.me/Odaily_GoldenApe

บัญชีทางการ：

https://twitter.com/OdailyChina

กลุ่มสนทนา：

https://t.me/Odaily_CryptoPunk

บทความแนะนำ

世界杯扩军之后，加密行业也走到了自己的“48队时代”

STRC severely depegs – what risks is the market pricing in?

Joseph Chalom: Ethereum is Becoming the Global Financial "Trust Settlement Layer"

Gate Research: Trading Pattern Analysis and Breakout Trading Strategies