Odaily Editorial Tea Party (June 17)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their obscure details; explores investment ideas and hypotheses that are still being verified—which may not be direct "wealth codes" and could simply be questions; shares observations from conversations with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial staff. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around together.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Bio: A learner, still green

Shares: 1. My trading activity has been slightly higher frequency than before. On the Crypto side, I bought a small amount during the dip a few days ago (mainly BTC), but my entry prices were generally on the high side (6.2-6.6), so there's basically no profit. On US stocks, I added a small position in HOOD; the logic was covered in an article I wrote a couple of days ago. Also, I'm playing the World Cup on prediction markets, simultaneously doing small, high-frequency copy trading (testing a new tool, seems decent so far; will recommend after a few more days) alongside larger, low-frequency active orders.

2. HYPE has been performing well recently, but I increasingly feel that "the more expensive HYPE gets, the worse it is for Hyperliquid." The reason is that Hyperliquid's most imaginative narrative was about building a multi-asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3, but now trade.xyz dominates the HIP-3 projects, while Felix and Ventuals have shut down one after another... The overly high HYPE price has effectively become an obstacle to the expansion of the HIP-3 blueprint (building a custom market based on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, worth over $35 million at current prices). Previously, the market envisioned "Hyperliquid + countless custom markets," but the current reality is "Hyperliquid + trade.xyz." If the upper-layer market solidifies into just trade.xyz, its user reach and future potential are clearly not in line with earlier market expectations.

Suzz (@aidongshoupai)

Bio: Just sold SK Hynix too early

Shares: The market never lacks opportunities, but it is always scarce on calm capital and mentality. The capital market flows perpetually; the market won't end just because you missed one opportunity. The short-term moonshot you missed today, the trending sector you missed, the bottom you missed—they are all just insignificant parts of countless market opportunities. The market operates day in and day out, topics alternate between old and new, cycles of ups and downs repeat. Miss this bus, and the next opportunity will soon arrive. Investing doesn't require catching every single market movement; we only need to seize opportunities within our cognitive range where risk is controllable. Obsessing over lost opportunities and being consumed by anxiety is itself the biggest trap in investing. Instead of draining yourself over a missed opportunity, focus on self-cultivation, enhance your understanding, and wait for the next chance that belongs to you.

Moreover, reviewing my past trading history, I found a very interesting phenomenon: looking back from a post-event perspective, we easily see high-quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at the market from last year, last month, or even a few weeks ago, we can clearly see which assets were at lows, which tracks were about to explode, and which trends were worth a heavy bet. It seems like profitable opportunities were everywhere for the taking. But falling into the "rearview mirror" mindset means we always see the market clearly in hindsight but feel lost and uncertain in the present. This phenomenon actually confirms a core truth: history had countless opportunities, and the present never lacks them either. The opportunities of the past haven't disappeared; we just lacked the cognition and composure to identify and seize them at the time. Similarly, the market right now is still filled with countless investment opportunities across different levels and risk profiles.

golem (@web3_golem)

Bio: golem's wild ideas

Shares: On June 16, SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of the AI programming tool Cursor, for $60 billion. This acquisition is essentially a mutually beneficial deal: Musk needs Cursor's developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the massive computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model Composer and compete against its former partner, Anthropic's models.

But beyond the strategic significance for both parties, an easily overlooked detail of this acquisition is its impact on SpaceX's stock price, because Musk didn't actually spend a single dollar. The funds for acquiring Cursor were entirely paid using SpaceX's Class A common stock.

According to SEC filings, SpaceX merged with Anysphere through its wholly-owned subsidiary X67 Inc. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, and Cursor, as the surviving entity, will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX. Upon completion of the merger, all common and preferred stock of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common stock, with the exchange ratio based on the volume-weighted average price over the 7 consecutive trading days prior to closing.

Clearly, Musk got the better end of this deal. Using SpaceX stock as payment allows Musk to leverage the company's currently extremely high valuation, completing the acquisition while giving up relatively fewer shares. Therefore, the actual cost of the acquisition is much lower; most of what was given is effectively 'bubble'... So, here's the crucial point: As of June 16, when both parties signed the merger agreement, only 3 trading days had passed since SpaceX's IPO. Therefore, the earliest stock settlement between the parties will happen next week. To complete the acquisition cheaper and with fewer shares, would the "Musk interest group" actively stabilize SpaceX's trading volume and keep its market cap high?

Of course, there's no strong causal link between these two things; it's just an analytical speculation about factors influencing the SPCX stock price. SPCX's current price is mainly driven by market sentiment. According to recent data from Vanda Track, SpaceX remains the most pursued stock by retail investors, topping the retail net inflow charts for many consecutive days. But retail enthusiasm is bound to fade; 'faith' is not without a price tag. When that time comes, institutions will need to take the baton and become the main force stabilizing the SPCX price.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Bio: Tea-filling junior, crypto bystander, media observer

Shares: 1. BTC has rebounded slightly, and the US-Iran situation has eased. I'm still bullish for now, but I might consider opening a short position to test the waters around 68k-69k.

2. SpaceX's IPO is over, but the closing price on the first day didn't quite hold above a $2.2 trillion market cap. I lost 10 U regrettably, but I see it going above $250 once it enters the Nasdaq in July.

3. Small position testing the World Cup. There were quite a few upsets or draws in the first two days of the group stage, especially the Spain vs. Cape Verde 0-0 draw, which probably caught a lot of people off guard. The win rate for strong teams has picked up over the last couple of days. I'm currently bullish on France, Argentina, Germany, and Norway. Worth paying close attention to going forward.

4. The Japanese and Korean stock markets continue to surge, with the trend of the strong getting stronger still evident. The next landmark events are the Fed's interest rate decision or the Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. I personally think Anthropic has the potential to become another largest IPO in history after SpaceX, with its valuation potentially leaping to the $2-$3 trillion range. I saw a post shared by a group member recently stating that "the AI industry is a heavy asset industry, just like real estate." It made a lot of sense to me, so positioning for a defensive investment by investing in "picks and shovels" providers seems like a good strategy.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Bio: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Shares: Regarding my operations, last week I accumulated HYPE long positions when it dropped to around $56, and gradually sold after it hit $70. Selling wasn't because I'm bearish; I just thought a major breakout was tough in the short term. However, in the long run, $50~$60 will become a key support zone. My plan is to keep buying at this level. Reasons are twofold: First, for this wave of traditional assets trading on-chain, Hyperliquid has captured the lion's share of the benefits. Transaction fees are soaring, and HYPE buybacks have skyrocketed, averaging over $60 million in monthly buybacks over the past six months. Importantly, Hyperliquid platform dedicates 97-99% of its transaction fee revenue to directly repurchasing HYPE in the open market. No other exchange does this currently, and this is its biggest growth flywheel. The second reason is that since the listing of the HYPE spot ETF, cumulative net inflow has reached $180 million, with an average daily net inflow of $7.5 million. Traditional capital's favor towards HYPE is obvious, a treatment no other crypto ETF has received upon listing.

Regarding ETH, the market is in a weird state. Pure crypto investors are thoroughly disappointed with ETH—because its price performance over the past few years has been very lackluster, leading to significant opportunity costs. Conversely, traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures like Tom Lee, are continuously adding real capital to ETH, viewing it as an undervalued "Amazon." Neither side can convince the other, so let's leave it to time. Personally, I believe ETH has really dropped to a "dirt cheap" price. Your entry cost now is even lower than Bitmine's.