The second venue of the World Cup is in the prediction market.

Original: Odaily ( @OdailyChina )

Author: Asher ( @Asher_0210 )

After the 2026 World Cup kicked off, prediction markets quickly became the hottest topic in the crypto industry.

On one hand, the World Cup itself commands the largest global sports audience; on the other hand, prediction markets, which have developed rapidly over the past two years, have finally found their perfect stage. Match results, advancement scenarios, champion picks, and the Golden Boot race – almost every topic can be transformed into a tradable market.

The excitement quickly translated into data. In the first week of the World Cup, the nominal sports trading volume in prediction markets reached $7.18 billion, setting an all-time high. It may only be a matter of time before weekly sports trading volume exceeds $10 billion. Amidst this World Cup frenzy, Polymarket, Kalshi, and predict.fun have emerged as the three most watched prediction platforms.

Polymarket's Moat is Higher Than Expected

The World Cup's impact on Polymarket is most directly reflected in its revenue. According to DefiLlama data, yesterday Polymarket's 24-hour revenue reached $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid's $814,900.

Polymarket's 24-hour revenue overtakes Hyperliquid

Polymarket hasn't relied on "throwing money" to attract users to participate in World Cup predictions. During the World Cup, the platform launched only a $1 million liquidity reward program, focusing on improving market depth rather than directly incentivizing user trading with a massive prize pool.

In terms of market depth, since the World Cup began, the cumulative trading volume for World Cup-related events on Polymarket has exceeded $1.7 billion, with over $63 million in trading volume in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, Polymarket has expanded its sports partnerships around the World Cup, including connections with football channels and events like OneFootball and Liga MX, further embedding prediction markets into fan content scenarios.

This also shows that Polymarket's moat may be higher than outsiders imagine. When a global event like the World Cup arrives, the first reaction for on-chain users to participate in related predictions is to go to Polymarket. Polymarket's advantage isn't just "offering odds"; it has become the default choice for on-chain users participating in all kinds of event predictions.

Kalshi Reaps the Benefits of Compliance and Sports

If Polymarket is the first stop for on-chain users to participate in World Cup predictions, then Kalshi's advantage comes from the expansion of sports trading within the US regulatory framework.

Before the World Cup, the CFTC signaled a clearer regulatory stance on event contracts. Based on the proposal content, the signals from the CFTC were relatively positive – most prediction events centered on the overall results of sports matches are still likely to have a clear compliance space. The CFTC preliminarily believes that markets focusing on overall match outcomes, such as winner, score, point spread, advancement results, overall team or player statistics, and season performance, are still likely to be considered event contracts with price discovery functions and information value. What regulators are more likely to focus on are markets for player injuries, referee decisions, single actions, etc., which are more susceptible to manipulation, insider trading, or incentive distortion.

This is crucial for Kalshi. Kalshi itself is a CFTC-regulated platform, and sports are one of its most important sources of trading volume. Analysis from Pew Research shows that since July 2024, sports trading has accounted for about 80% of Kalshi's total volume. This means that as long as the sports prediction market gains clearer space within the compliance framework, Kalshi will be one of the most direct beneficiaries.

Data from this World Cup confirms this. As the event started, Kalshi's sports trading volume increased significantly, with single-day nominal sports trading volume reaching $1.09 billion and exceeding $1 billion for two consecutive days. In comparison, Polymarket's single-day nominal sports trading volume during the same period was $350 million. This means that during this World Cup, the period of most concentrated sports trading, Kalshi's daily volume has already shown a clear lead.

Kalshi's sports trading volume exceeds $1 billion for two consecutive days

So, Kalshi is not just reaping the World Cup dividend; it's also reaping the compliance dividend. The World Cup has pushed the sports prediction market into the spotlight, while the CFTC's regulatory discussions have given Kalshi a clearer narrative. While Polymarket represents the on-chain prediction market mindset, Kalshi is proving that compliant sports prediction markets can also achieve extremely high trading intensity.

predict.fun's Variable: The Binance Gateway

Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun's biggest highlights for this World Cup are its frequent integration with the Binance ecosystem and its use of the highest cash prize pool among current prediction market platforms for the World Cup to amplify activity excitement.

During the World Cup, predict.fun launched the "Predict Cup" for the 2026 World Cup, with a total prize pool of $2 million, the highest World Cup-specific reward among leading prediction market platforms. Compared to Polymarket's and Kalshi's respective $1 million activities, predict.fun has clearly raised the incentive stakes higher this time.

Looking at the activity design, predict.fun doesn't just offer a single champion prediction; it has turned the World Cup into a 39-day points competition. The activity covers 48 teams and 104 matches. Users can support up to 5 teams and earn Fan Points by participating in markets for match results, scores, goal counts, etc., competing for rewards based on periodic leaderboards.

Rewards are spread throughout the tournament. Each group stage group has a $70,000 prize pool, and each stage of the knockout round has its own rewards, with the final prize pool reaching $260,000. This means users aren't just betting on one outcome; they can continuously participate by supporting their chosen teams.

predict.fun launches 2026 World Cup prediction activity with a total prize pool of $2 million

More importantly, this activity has been integrated into the Binance gateway.

According to the official announcement, Binance Wallet now allows users to participate in the $2 million PREDICT CUP activity, provided and operated by predict.fun, through the Binance App interface. Users can select their supported teams within the Binance App, participate in related prediction markets, earn Fan Points under the rules, and improve their team's ranking. Additionally, eligible users who participate in relevant markets through the Binance prediction market during the activity and complete valid lock-ins have a chance to share an extra 3 million Predict Points.

The World Cup provides event excitement, Binance provides gateway traffic, and the $2 million prize pool and 3 million Predict Points further lower the barrier for new users (Binance Wallet also has a separate $300,000 trading competition). The combination of these three factors has given predict.fun access to an exchange-level exposure gateway within just a few days of the World Cup. Just 3 days into the World Cup, predict.fun had 20,000 daily active users and over 180,000 daily trades.

predict daily active users and daily trades

After the World Cup Traffic Surge, Prediction Markets Enter a New Phase

Less than a week into the World Cup, prediction markets have already delivered results exceeding expectations. Whether it's trading volume, platform revenue, or user participation, records are being broken constantly.

Polymarket has leveraged the World Cup to prove the user mindshare and liquidity advantages of a leading platform; Kalshi, with clearer regulatory expectations, has pushed the compliant sports prediction market to a new scale; and predict.fun, through the Binance ecosystem gateway and high incentives, has gained exposure and user growth far beyond normal levels.

Although their paths differ, all three platforms illustrate the same thing – the World Cup brings not just traffic, but genuine trading demand. For prediction markets, sports have always been the easiest to understand, easiest to participate in, and most prone to high-frequency trading. The World Cup, as one of the most globally followed sports events, is amplifying this demand to an unprecedented scale.

As of now, most teams have only completed one group stage match. As the qualification scenarios become clearer and the knockout rounds approach, the importance of the matches, market sentiment, and capital attention will all continue to increase. Whether it's trading volume, user numbers, or market excitement, prediction markets have the opportunity to continue breaking records in the coming weeks.

For prediction markets, the World Cup brings not just a traffic surge, but also a chance to prove their own value. And based on the current data, this validation has only just begun.