ทำไมราคาสัญญาก่อนเปิดตลาดของ SpaceX ในแต่ละกระดานเทรดถึงมีความแตกต่างกันมาก?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

SpaceX's trillion-dollar mega IPO is finally on the horizon.

You open the exchange, looking to position yourself before the IPO, but suddenly realize... SPCX is quoted at 169 USDT on Binance, 155 USDT on OKX, and 154 USDC on Hyperliquid. The pre-market contract prices across the three platforms all differ, especially with a significant gap between Binance and the other two. Why is this happening?

Simply put, this situation arises partly because different platforms have independent price discovery mechanisms, but more critically, because the equity data and valuation conversion methods used by each platform are not identical.

First, it's important to clarify that SPCX listed on Binance, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid is not the actual stock of SpaceX, but rather a derivative designed around the future IPO price. These products will ultimately be settled based on SpaceX's post-IPO market cap and equity data. Therefore, their prices essentially reflect market expectations for SpaceX's final valuation. Since SpaceX is not yet listed, there is no fixed benchmark for these expected prices. This uncertainty is the source of the current price discrepancy.

Differences in Equity Data Across Three Major Exchanges

Let's review the historical announcements from Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid regarding their SpaceX pre-market contracts.

OKX listed the SPACEX pre-market contract on May 7, with an initial estimated share count of 1 billion shares. Consequently, the contract price was initially above 2000 USDT. Then, on June 2, based on SpaceX's S-1 filing, OKX adjusted the share count to 12.52 billion shares (Note: This adjustment process is called a Rebase, a term used throughout this article), and renamed the SPACEX pre-market contract to SPCX pre-market contract. Correspondingly, the price of SPCX "adjusted" to the 150-200 USDT range.

Hyperliquid listed the SPCX pre-market contract on May 17 via the HIP-3 market Trade.xyz. Regarding the share count, Trade.xyz initially disclosed an estimate of approximately 11.87 billion shares derived from private market trading data, but the community found that Trade.xyz later removed this description from its documentation.

Binance launched SPCX pre-market contract trading on May 21, also with an initial share count of 11.87 billion shares. On the evening of June 8, Binance announced a Rebase for SPCX, adjusting the share count directly to 13.08 billion shares as disclosed in the latest IPO plan (adding the 556 million new shares issued in the IPO to the 12.52 billion shares from the S-1). The Rebase will be executed at 16:30 Beijing time tomorrow.

To summarize, the current situation is now clear:

• OKX currently uses the equity data of 12.52 billion shares from the S-1 filing. It remains uncertain whether it will undergo another Rebase.
• Hyperliquid (Trade.xyz) previously disclosed an 11.87 billion share count, but since the relevant description has been removed, the market estimates that the possibility of a subsequent Rebase is extremely low, likely defaulting to tracking the actual equity.
• Binance currently uses an equity data of 11.87 billion shares, but will undergo a Rebase tomorrow to 13.08 billion shares.

Actual Price Comparison Across Three Platforms

With the equity data known, we can calculate the "real price" reflected by the SPCX pre-market contracts on the three platforms based on real-time prices.

As of 17:00 Beijing time, the real-time quotes for SPCX pre-market contracts on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid are 169.62 USDT, 155.35 USDT, and 154.62 USDC, respectively.

Taking this static data, combined with the equity data mentioned earlier, the following calculation results are obtained:

• Binance is currently at 169.62 USDT. After the Rebase tomorrow, it will adjust to 154.2 USDT.
• OKX is currently at 155.35 USDT. If another Rebase is performed (adjusted to 13.08 billion shares), the corresponding price would be 148.7 USDT.
• Hyperliquid is currently at 154.62 USDC. If a Rebase is performed, the corresponding price would be 140.3 USDC.

At first glance, doesn't this mean Hyperliquid has the cheapest price? Don't rush! The current situation is that the market expects OKX and Hyperliquid are unlikely to perform another Rebase before SpaceX completes its IPO.

The reason for OKX is that it has already conducted one Rebase, and the official documentation for the pre-market contract only mentions "a Rebase based on the S-1 equity data," a step that has now been completed.

The reason for Hyperliquid can be found in the analysis by arbitrage expert "Silicon Bird｜Ray" (X: @limxn6), who indicates the probability of a subsequent Rebase is extremely low.

So, the current situation is that while the prices on OKX and Hyperliquid after a potential Rebase look very attractive, this price scenario is very unlikely to materialize.

A more realistic price comparison should be: Binance (154.2 USDT) < Hyperliquid (154.62 USDC) < OKX (155.35 USDT).

Two conclusions can be drawn here. First, there is almost no arbitrage opportunity between OKX/Hyperliquid compared to Binance (after Binance announced the Rebase last night, the arbitrage gap was as high as 10%). Second, the premium on OKX and Hyperliquid can be attributed to the market pricing in the minimal possibility of a Rebase, with OKX's higher premium indicating a greater perceived probability of a Rebase compared to Hyperliquid.

Measuring the Same Thing with Different Rulers

As the SpaceX IPO draws closer and market rules become clearer, the best arbitrage window may have already passed. However, for the average investor, this price competition surrounding SPCX offers an excellent sample for observing the operational logic of the pre-market market.

Many are accustomed to directly interpreting the pre-market contract price as the "future stock price." But through the above analysis, it's easy to see that pre-market trading involves much more than just a simple number. Behind the price lies not only the market's judgment of the company's future valuation but also the exchange's product design, choice of equity data, and participants' expectations of rule changes.

In other words, when you see different quotes for SPCX on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid, they don't necessarily imply a huge divergence in market opinion on SpaceX's value; more likely, they represent the measurement of the same target using different rulers.