BTC consolidation ≠ industry decline. Ansem: I’m bullish on these three undervalued crypto tailwinds
- Key Takeaway: The lackluster performance of major mainstream coins in the current crypto market does not signify an industry decline. The industry is entering a mature phase, with stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization being core structural narratives. Furthermore, trends like regulatory improvements and the convergence of AI and crypto will foster more successful startups.
- Key Elements:
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative weakness is a temporary phenomenon. Its "Ponzi-like" tendencies and quantum computing concerns are leading institutions to exit, but its nearly two-decade journey from $0.01 to $100,000 has already successfully fulfilled its mission.
- Ethereum (ETH) is under pressure due to competition from new L1 blockchains and its own inability to capture value (especially by outsourcing execution to Rollups). Hyperliquid showcases a successful model of directly integrating business into the L1 token.
- The trend of improving crypto regulation is clear, lowering the barrier to entry for startups. Existing tech companies like Robinhood and Stripe/Tempo have already acknowledged the advantages of blockchain technology.
- Since the bottom in 2022, AI has stolen crypto's spotlight, and tech stocks have outperformed crypto. However, going forward, there are three major synergistic trends between AI and crypto: rising competitiveness of open-source AI, easier startup formation for small teams, and stablecoins/blockchains being the optimal infrastructure for AI agent transactions.
Original Author: Ansem
Original Translation: TechFlow
Preface: When market sentiment is low, BTC consolidates at highs, and ETH continues to face pressure, the narrative that crypto is "over" grows louder. Renowned trader Ansem pushes back in this thread: Underperformance of major coins does not equal industry decline. Stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization are the true structural narratives. For investors still navigating asset allocation in uncertainty, this presents a long-cycle framework worth serious consideration.
I disagree; crypto is merely going through a maturation phase.
Stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization as themes will continue to permeate the global economy, and will give rise to many successful crypto startups.
Hyperliquid is just the first example, showcasing how powerful the combination of an open blockchain and business tokenization can be — many more will follow.
The root cause of the current negative sentiment in the crypto market is the poor performance of major coins. BTC has gone from $0.01 to $100,000 in less than twenty years, successfully fulfilling its mission of hedging against the continuous decline in USD purchasing power. The current issue Bitcoin faces is the "Ponzi-fication" tendency driven by Saylor's playbook, which is temporary. I believe BTC won't see clear trend upside until this issue is resolved. Additionally, concerns about quantum computing are real. These two factors, combined with institutional exit liquidity, provide ample reason for veteran BTC holders to de-risk into excess liquidity — we've already seen concrete examples, such as the large OTC trade handled by Galaxy (facilitating a $9 billion sale for a single entity in 2025). There are many similar individuals whose holdings are already in infinite profit territory.
But the fact that BTC has underperformed for a few years after outperforming every asset on earth for over a decade does not mean crypto is dead—that's an absurd claim.
Ethereum is also suffering for its own unique reasons. I think I've talked about this enough, but essentially, it's being pressured by newer entrants and has failed to make ETH a good long-term asset. All L1s are struggling on the demand side because historically, the narrative for these tokens has been "future growth," not real revenue. Now that Hyperliquid has concretely proven it's possible to attach a business directly to an L1 token, previous L1s are at a disadvantage—they capture too little revenue from the applications using their infrastructure. Ethereum's situation is worse because it has outsourced execution activity to Rollups.
But this doesn't mean we won't see more successful crypto startups emerge.
There is a very clear trend of improving crypto regulation, which will significantly lower the barrier for entrepreneurs to build crypto businesses. Meanwhile, existing tech companies are also acknowledging the advantages of blockchain, as evidenced by Robinhood, Stripe/Tempo, and others.
AI has captured a massive amount of attention that would otherwise have gone to crypto. Since the bottom of 2022, tech stocks have also significantly outperformed crypto. As a trader, allocating time between stocks and crypto is extremely wise. In the past, if you were willing to take risk, overweighting crypto made sense—it was an emerging industry experiencing extraordinary returns as it went mainstream.
Looking ahead, as AI models improve exponentially over the next few years, there are three underappreciated tailwinds for crypto:
1) Open-source AI will become much more competitive with closed-source AI
2) It will become easier for small teams to build successful startups using software
3) Stablecoins and blockchains are superior infrastructure for AI agents to transact
The convergence of these trends means we may see more crypto experiments and token innovation, not less—especially against a backdrop of continuously improving regulations and retail speculation becoming the next big trend.
