Odaily Editor's Office Chat (June 3rd)
- Core Viewpoint: Multiple analysts shared their judgments on the current crypto market conditions, agreeing that BTC and ETH have further room to decline, but have already started DCA or are waiting to buy the dip at lower levels. Meanwhile, they are paying attention to event-driven opportunities such as the World Cup, SpaceX IPO, and the PUMP unlock.
- Key Points:
- Wenser predicts BTC may see a short-term rebound but will start to decline after mid-July due to a lack of institutional buying, and has already been buying the dip in small amounts as a form of DCA.
- SpaceX IPO is priced at $135 per share, with a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. However, the estimated equity on the Pre-IPO platform deviates from the actual shares, which could lead to dilution of the SPCX contract price.
- Asher plans to start DCA when BTC falls below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. He saw a short-term rebound to $72,000 but did not execute any trades, focusing instead on the exchange's World Cup activities.
- Nan Zhi points out that there is no longer any alpha in the entire AI hardware supply chain. However, the shortage makes it impossible to disprove the performance. He personally plans to focus on the point when top tokens drop to dirt-cheap prices.
- Pump tokens will unlock 8.25% of the total supply on July 14th. Despite the bleak market conditions, Pump.fun's daily revenue still exceeds $900,000. Golem suggests paying attention to buying opportunities before and after the unlock date.
This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuanced details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under verification — which may not necessarily be direct wealth passwords, but could also be just questions themselves; shares observations gained from exchanges with industry practitioners; and materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to exchange ideas, ask questions, or chat with us.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Bio: Tea-pouring junior, crypto bystander, media observer
Shares: 1. BTC declined but I didn't short it, because I feel there's still a small rebound coming, and a smooth downturn might not start until mid-July. The reason is the lack of institutional buying pressure seen in the wave from last year's DAT. Currently, I'm doing small-scale bottom-fishing, treating it like a DCA strategy.
2. SpaceX IPO is tentatively scheduled for next week, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Polymarket positions related to SpaceX are ready for harvest. The commercial aerospace stock sector might see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, feeling like RKLB needs to be watched for risk?
3. The World Cup is about to start. The odds for predicting the champion look decent. I currently have limit orders on France and Spain, which can be bought as appropriate. https://polymarket.com/zh/event/world-cup-winner
4. Suggest paying attention to the "Jensen Huang Stock Sector." See details in the "Crypto-Stock Barometer" published every Tuesday. https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5211119
5. Odaily has been very timely in covering stocks, ZEC, HYPE, and BNB recently. Those who followed along have profited. I suggest turning on APP notifications and activating the bell. Read Odaily, trade global stocks, enjoy a free life — you deserve it~
Asher (@Asher_0210)
Bio: Regular schedule, long-term investor
Shares: 1. Regarding market conditions, I plan to start DCA for BTC below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. There's a possibility of a short-term rebound to $72,000, but I, as a long-term DCA investor, am not interested in DCA or bottom-fishing now. I can accept it even if the price doesn't drop. First, since it's essentially spot DCA, there won't be explosive returns. This portion of funds for DCA BTC and ETH is purely for stability. Second, I'm farming quite a few early-stage projects. If the market recovers, they might start issuing tokens one after another, which could bring pleasant surprises.
2. Prediction markets: The World Cup is coming soon. Major exchanges and the prediction market duo, Polymarket and Kalshi, should be launching events this week. My focus is still on farming these activities.
3. Regarding PUMP, the largest unlock is coming on July 14, releasing 8.25% of the total supply. Although the market is bleak, Pump.fun's daily revenue is still above $900,000. There might be buying opportunities around the unlock. Personally, I believe that even if the crypto space continues in this "half-dead" state, the Meme track will still see periodic hot topics. Therefore, believing it is the largest Meme launch platform, I have started DCA-ing PUMP. Additionally, I will soon write an analysis of the PUMP token from a supply-demand perspective. Stay tuned.
golem (@web3_golem)
Bio: golem's whimsical ideas
Shares: Let me talk again about the pre-IPO valuation of SpaceX on Pre-IPO platforms. I still hold long positions in SPCX. Today's news from Reuters is that SpaceX plans to issue 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, corresponding to a company valuation of about $1.75 trillion. Back-calculating, SpaceX's total shares outstanding are approximately 12.963 billion. Previously, SpaceX also disclosed its total shares in its S-1 filing, roughly between 12.5 billion and 13 billion shares, which aligns with this Reuters report.
Why do I care about SpaceX's total shares? Because the current Pre-IPO platform's SpaceX perpetual contracts mainly use a valuation formula: "SPCX current price * Estimated share count = SpaceX pre-IPO valuation." Both tradexyz and Binance estimate SpaceX's total shares outstanding at 11.87 billion. Logically, if the actual total shares outstanding of SpaceX are higher than their estimates, then even if the pre-IPO valuation remains unchanged, the contract price of SPCX on the platform would be diluted. This is why the SPCX pre-IPO contract fell over 3% this morning.
It's not a valuation collapse, but the market independently pricing based on SpaceX's actual share count, deviating from the estimated shares set by the Pre-IPO platform. Regarding this significant deviation between the platform's estimated shares and SpaceX's actual total shares, both tradexyz and Binance have yet to take action. Binance, however, did add a protective clause when listing the SPCX pre-IPO contract, stating that Binance reserves the right to adjust the contract amount of the Pre-IPO perpetual contract based on the actual share count.
In short, this is extremely unfavorable for ordinary investors. We not only have to contend with the actual market cap of the SpaceX IPO but also with the rules of these Pre-IPO platforms. If the pre-IPO valuation is basically in line with the actual market cap at listing, but the SPCX contract price crashes due to the difference in total shares, who bears the losses for the investors?
The Pre-IPO perpetual contracts for US stocks are a new phenomenon being widely rolled out this cycle, but there are still many rough issues in their actual operation that need to be discussed and resolved.
South Orange (@Assassin_Malvo)
Bio: Choking for dreams together
Shares: 1. The entire AI hardware supply chain has been thoroughly picked over. There are no Alpha plays in the targets, only Beta plays, differentiated merely by magnitude.
2. The entire supply chain is facing shortages everywhere. Performance is unfalsifiable, and financial reports will only get better. So the question boils down to whether the growth rate can become increasingly beyond expectations.
3. I exited MRVL midway. In retrospect, I underestimated everyone's demand for, imagination of, and sentiment towards "dream-building."
4. Going back to point 1, in the medium term, it's about sentiment. Under the drive of dreams, targets will only accelerate, not "sell the news."
5. My key personal plan for "dreaming" — when will the token prices of top-tier models drop to dirt-cheap levels?
