Reddit热议AI第二波：资金正从算力股流向应用层？

Original Author: Select-Leading-4542

Original Translation: TechFlow

Recently, the Reddit US stock community r/stocks has been buzzing with discussion. As AI infrastructure stocks represented by Nvidia (NVDA) complete their major upward trend, more and more investors are turning their attention to application-layer companies that can actually convert AI into profits, believing that a new rotation is quietly unfolding.

Stocks frequently mentioned in this round of discussion include:

Original Post:

NVDA and all AI infrastructure stocks have clearly completed their major rally.

I'm starting to wonder whether capital is finally rotating into companies that are actually leveraging AI to improve their profit margins.

I'm currently mainly focused on RDDT, SNOW, NOW, and SHOP.

RDDT is obviously in a core position as a data provider, and the fundamentals look really strong. SNOW's insane post-earnings jump shows the market is very receptive to its new AI products. NOW and SHOP are both heavily integrating AI into their platforms – purely from a chart perspective, both look like good candidates for a rebound.

What other tickers are on your watchlist that fit this logic? Any worth digging into?

Representative Replies from the Comment Section:

DeathStar_81 (10 hours ago): RDDT is literally breaking out right now. The fundamentals are too strong to ignore. 70% revenue growth, 90% margins, PEG ratio below 1.

Ambitious_Traffic530 (11 hours ago): Reddit has surged a lot in the past few days. Is it still worth buying now, or should I wait for a pullback?

tobybells:  Reddit has been consolidating in the same range – after dropping from 120-130, it ranged near 140-150, then rallied to 160-170. You can buy anywhere in this range. I'm long RDDT with 2000 shares at a cost basis of 170, so you'd be buying cheaper than me right now.

ShowerMotor (12 hours ago): Call me conservative, but I think the second wave is still semiconductors, and the third wave will be hyperscalers and Mag7... the boring stuff. I plan to shift most of my position to the Nasdaq 100 next year and hold it until who knows when.

AloneStaff5051 (11 hours ago): For context: All LLM models are trained on Reddit data. Anthropic and Perplexity haven't paid, and there is clearly an ongoing lawsuit against them.

PotatoAjacent104937 (12 hours ago): If this is your logic, Palantir should be on your list. I hold Palantir, but I feel like their government contract adoption might be slowing down. Last quarter, government revenue was up 84% YoY, and commercial revenue was up 133% YoY.

Last year, it felt like there were headlines about new Palantir contracts every day, but the numbers don't lie!

Zipski577:  Defense/AI spending is increasing every year, and Palantir's share is also growing year over year. I used to think the commercial side was the biggest opportunity and that it was severely overvalued, but after deep-diving into government contracts and historical data and re-modeling, a target price above $200 looks very realistic.

Hoosier2016:  META too. Their AI-assisted ad targeting is already very profitable.

🟴 Bull Case Summary: RDDT is the Strongest Narrative in This Rotation

The discussion around Reddit (RDDT) is the most heated within the community. The bullish view centers on its data moat – almost all major Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on Reddit data, while companies like Anthropic and Perplexity haven't paid yet, and related lawsuits are progressing. Supporters believe:

• Revenue is growing 70% YoY, gross margins are at 90%, PEG ratio is near or below 1, suggesting the valuation is still severely undervalued
• As LLMs penetrate e-commerce scenarios, Reddit's value as a "trust layer of real human feedback" will continue to rise
• The stock price is currently consolidating in the 140-170 range, with technical signals suggesting a potential upside breakout

Point of Contention: How Deep is Reddit's Data Moat?

Some investors are more cautious, arguing that more data doesn't necessarily mean higher quality; many new models are shifting to fine-tuning Small Language Models (SLMs) on existing datasets. The reliability of Reddit content itself is questionable, and its bargaining power against big tech companies is overestimated.

For example:

TyrannosPyros (8 hours ago): I've completely closed my RDDT position because it wasn't performing well and was preventing me from putting more money into AMD and TSMC. The data moat is severely overrated. Most new models are created by fine-tuning LLMs on existing datasets. Their ad revenue is good, but I don't think they have significant bargaining power against big tech.

Fireballsdude:  I really don't understand why people think that just because LLMs have already crawled Reddit's existing dataset, the continuous supply of fresh data isn't important. LLMs won't just be for enterprise; they will also do e-commerce as another monetization avenue for these massive investments.

🟢 Views on Other Popular Tickers

• META: AI-assisted ad targeting is significantly improving monetization efficiency. Some investors believe the market has over-punished it due to the Metaverse failure and high CapEx, presenting a potential undervaluation opportunity.
• Palantir (PLTR): Latest earnings showed government revenue +84% YoY and commercial revenue +133% YoY. The numbers are strong, but some investors feel this doesn't match the perceived news hype.
• Snowflake (SNOW): Surged 30%+ in a single day post-earnings. Its AI data products have gained market approval, though some lament "missing the boat."
• Semiconductors & Hyperscalers: Some old-school investors believe the second wave is still semiconductors, and the third wave will be Mag7 like Google, Apple, etc. They suggest simply buying the Nasdaq 100 for long-term holding.

Professional Perspective: What Does the Options Market Think of This Rotation?

One user in the comments offered a more professional analysis from a volatility surface perspective: Infrastructure stocks (like Nvidia, Dell) have seen volatility compression post-earnings, indicating market consensus on the direction of CapEx expansion.

On the other hand, the uncertainty for application-layer stocks (RDDT, SNOW, SHOP) is bidirectional, and their implied volatility structure doesn't have the same upside skew as infrastructure stocks. Therefore, instead of using options to lever up on application-layer plays, it's cleaner to just buy the stocks outright.

This discussion reflects the core divergence in the current market: The money in AI infrastructure has been made; where is the next 10x?

Most participants lean towards the view that the monetization logic for the application layer is gradually becoming clearer, but the catalysts haven't fully materialized yet. RDDT, with its unique data assets, has become the most watched ticker, while META and Palantir offer stronger fundamental support due to their already proven AI monetization capabilities.