BitMart Research Weekly Recap: Macro, Crude Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and a Comprehensive Crypto Market Review
- Core Viewpoint: On the macro level, US employment data shows structural divergence and is distorted by model adjustments, with the impact of AI on employment not yet systematically apparent; crude oil inventories support prices, but demand is suppressed, with China playing a significant stabilizing role. The crypto market is seeing a mild bullish trend driven by a recovery in overall market risk appetite, with institutional buying remaining moderate. Simultaneously, stablecoin issuance provides a dual-track valuation arbitrage model for the trend of institutions building their own public chains.
- Key Elements:
- US non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, but growth was heavily reliant on the healthcare sector (adding 618,000) and affected by a positive adjustment of approximately 391,000 jobs from the "business birth/death model." However, the household survey showed a decrease of 226,000 employed individuals, raising doubts about the data's reliability.
- Global crude oil buffer inventories have been depleted by about 300 million barrels to approximately 800 million barrels, supporting oil prices near $100. However, high prices are suppressing demand, with China's average daily crude oil imports dropping by about 3.5 million barrels in April. The pause in restocking has alleviated supply-demand tightness.
- AI tech stocks face short-term pressure from potential index weight adjustments triggered by SpaceX's possible IPO (potentially leading to sell-offs of leaders like Nvidia). The mid-term earnings season will test AI's return on investment and commercialization efficiency. By year-end, they may face a bubble stress test due to IPOs and the election.
- In the crypto market, BTC prices rose from $77,000 to $82,000, with strong active buying intent on the spot side (robust CVD indicator). Perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, indicating some capital continues to short altcoins or ETH.
- Last week, ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $791 million, but institutional buying was relatively mild: BMBMR bought about 26,000 ETH, below the expected 70,000; Strategy only purchased 535 BTC at an average price of $80,000.
- Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, secured funding at a $3 billion valuation. The dual-track arbitrage model of "listing + issuing coins/chains" within the industry is clear. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains may represent the next phase of structural opportunities.
1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets (Macro)
1.1 US Employment Data and AI's Impact on Employment
April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, superficially above expectations, but the market has questioned the data quality. Employment growth is heavily reliant on the healthcare sector, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while all other sectors combined saw a decline of about 367,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, indicating a deepening structural divergence in the job market.
The relatively strong April non-farm payroll figure was significantly influenced by the "business birth/death model." This model provided a positive adjustment of about 391,000 jobs in April, meaning some of the reported gains were model estimates rather than actual survey results. In contrast, the household survey indicated that actual employment fell by approximately 226,000 in April. This stark divergence has deepened market skepticism regarding the reliability of the employment data.
AI's impact on employment is beginning to attract attention. Information sector jobs decreased by about 30,000 in April and have been on a continuous decline this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, with the US unemployment rate still hovering around 4.3%, it's too early to determine if AI has caused a systemic shock to the overall labor market. Future observation is needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workforce.
1.2 Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently been trading near $100 per barrel. Global available crude oil buffer inventory stands at about 800 million barrels. Approximately 300 million barrels had been consumed by the end of April, providing support to oil prices from the inventory side. However, high prices are also clearly suppressing demand. Global daily oil demand decreased by about 2.8 million barrels in March and 4.3 million barrels in April.
China is acting as a "stabilizer" in the current oil price trend. China currently holds crude oil reserves of about 1.4 billion barrels. It significantly cut crude oil imports in April, reducing daily imports by approximately 3.5 million barrels to their lowest level since 2024. China's pause or slowdown in inventory replenishment has, to some extent, alleviated the global supply-demand tension for crude oil and also curbed further upward pressure on prices.
Regarding US-Iran relations, the probability of both parties reaching a phased memorandum agreement this month is relatively high. The core issues likely revolve around maintaining the openness of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing conflict risks, and curbing oil prices. In the short term, maintaining manageable tensions and avoiding uncontrolled oil prices serves the interests of both parties.
1.3 Short, Mid, and Long-term Outlook for AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, factors are mixed for AI tech stocks. Positive factors include the potential for marginal easing in US-China trade relations and improved market risk appetite if the US and Iran reach a phased agreement. Negative factors stem from potential index weight adjustment pressure. If SpaceX goes public in June and is added to the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds might need to sell off top-5 weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to free up capacity, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders. However, lower-ranked constituents like Micron (MU) could potentially benefit.
In the medium term, the earnings season in mid-July will be a key verification point for AI tech stocks. The market's valuation framework for AI stocks is entering the "second half," shifting from theme-driven narratives to a greater focus on AI return on investment, commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long term, year-end could be a significant test for the AI bubble. The US presidential election may introduce policy disruptions. If trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic initiate an IPO, it could also drain liquidity from the secondary market. Furthermore, if corporate capital expenditure continuously exceeds their own cash flow, relying on debt-financed investment, AI stocks could enter a late-stage bubble phase, facing a stress test reminiscent of the late internet bubble era.
2. Crypto Market Trends and Ecosystem
2.1 Market Overview and Trading Data
The Crypto market has recently been driven primarily by the recovery in overall market risk appetite, showing a generally moderate bullish trend. BTC price has risen from around $77,000 last week to approximately $82,000. Spot trading volume has rebounded but remains at relatively low levels. The CVD indicator has performed strongly, indicating significant active buying interest on the spot side, with buying pressure dominating.
On the derivatives side, open interest has increased alongside the price rise, but the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, suggesting some capital continues to short the market, primarily concentrated in altcoins or ETH. In the options market, investor willingness to buy Puts as downside protection has decreased, bearish demand has receded, and bullish sentiment is spreading. The overall structure suggests this rally may have progressed from its early stage to its middle phase. However, attention is needed on whether subsequent trading volume can increase.
Regarding large capital flows, ETFs maintained net inflows last week, totaling approximately $791 million. BMBMR purchased around 26,000 ETH, below the market's anticipated baseline of 70,000 ETH. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC at an average price near $80,000. Overall, institutional buying momentum persists, but it is relatively moderate compared to expectations.
2.2 Stablecoins and Institutional Blockchain Launch Trends
Circle's recent financial report showed revenue falling short of expectations, but the stock price has been relatively resilient, indicating the market still recognizes its long-term narrative. Simultaneously, Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, has achieved a valuation of approximately $3 billion in its funding round. The trend of stablecoin issuers extending into underlying infrastructure is becoming clearer.
The industry is forming a "dual-track arbitrage" model of "listing + issuing tokens/chains." On one track, projects gain compliance status, access to traditional capital market funding, and credibility by listing traditional entities. On the other track, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture Crypto market liquidity, benefiting from the dual valuation premiums of both equity and tokens.
Circle has provided a clear demonstration effect. Subsequently, other projects with established user bases, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems may follow a similar path. For example, Telegram-related ecosystems and PM projects face an increasing probability of capturing on-chain liquidity in the future by launching their own chains or tokens. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains could become a significant structural opportunity for the Crypto market in the next phase.
This article is solely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risk is high. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.
