Coinbase ปลดพนักงาน 14% อะไรคือสาเหตุหลัก ภาวะตลาดหมีหรือ AI?

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

On the evening of May 5 Beijing time, Coinbase, the top compliant exchange in the crypto world, officially announced a 14% workforce reduction, expected to cut approximately 660 employees. Layoff notices have now been sent via email. All US-based employees affected by the layoffs will receive at least 16 weeks of base pay (an additional 2 weeks per year of service), their next equity vesting, and six months of COBRA health insurance. Employees on work visas will receive additional transition support.

In the layoff announcement, Coinbase founder and CEO Brian Armstrong cited two main reasons, with Armstrong providing a detailed explanation of the second point specifically.

First, the market environment — Coinbase's business performance remains cyclical with the market. To navigate the current downtrend, an immediate adjustment of the cost structure is needed to enter the next growth phase in a leaner, faster, and more efficient state.

Second, the AI technology revolution — Armstrong emphasized that AI is transforming how businesses operate. Today, a skilled engineer using AI can complete in days what once took a team weeks. Non-technical teams are also beginning to deliver production-grade code. This change accelerates daily, and all companies, including Coinbase, face the same challenge. Rather than waiting passively, it's better to proactively and deliberately restructure Coinbase into a lean, fast, AI-centric company.

• Odaily Note: Armstrong's statement that "non-technical teams are also beginning to deliver production-grade code" has sparked some controversy on X. For a company that directly manages user assets and has had past information leaks, some professionals have criticized Coinbase's business rigor in this regard.

Looking ahead, Coinbase aims to fundamentally change how the company operates — rebuilding Coinbase as an "agent," with humans coordinating at its edges. Specifically, Coinbase will compress organizational layers (maximum 5 levels below CEO/COO), require management to engage in frontline work, and build smaller, more flexible teams around AI talent.

AI-Driven Layoffs: The New Trend in Silicon Valley

Laying off workers under the pretext of "AI productivity upgrades" is no longer new.

In October last year, Amazon cut as many as 30,000 jobs across logistics, payments, video games, and cloud computing divisions. CEO Andy Jassy had previously hinted at this round of layoffs: "As the company increasingly uses AI to perform tasks previously done by humans, Amazon's workforce size may shrink."

At the end of February this year, Jack Dorsey's (also Twitter's founder) fintech company Block announced the elimination of 4,000 positions, reducing its total headcount from over 10,000 to under 6,000, to promote a leaner, flatter, and AI-centric organizational structure. Block CFO and COO Amrita Ahuja revealed that after the layoff announcement, numerous corporate executives proactively contacted Block seeking to replicate this "playbook."

In mid-April, Snap also cut approximately 1,000 jobs. CEO Evan Spiegel stated: "AI will enable our teams to reduce repetitive work, increase efficiency, and better support our community, partners, and advertisers."

Following that, Reuters reported that Meta also plans to launch the first round of its large-scale layoffs this year on May 20, cutting about 10% of its global workforce (approximately 79,000 total employees), around 8,000 people. Sources say Meta also plans further layoffs in the second half of the year, though specific timing and scope are not yet finalized. Depending on ongoing observations of AI capabilities, Meta's senior management may adjust these plans.

• Odaily Note: See Jack Dorsey's Company: 4,000 White-Collar Workers Being Phased Out by AI; Back at the AI Table, Is Zuckerberg's First Move to Lay Off Employees?

But is this truly the main reason these companies choose to lay off workers? Perhaps not necessarily. Several industry leaders have commented, suggesting that many companies using "AI productivity upgrades" as a reason for layoffs may simply be masking business outlook or revenue pressures.

During Nvidia GTC 2026, Jensen Huang criticized companies laying off workers under the pretense of AI efficiency gains: "Those leaders who respond to AI by cutting jobs simply can't think of a better way; they have nothing new in mind. Even with powerful tools, they won't use them for expansion."

Tech journalist Derek Thompson also remarked after Coinbase's layoff announcement: "AI is indeed good at writing code... but many layoff plans were going to happen anyway, and are now being dressed up by AI. Macro history suggests that technological change in the tech industry often accelerates during economic downturns, forcing struggling companies to do more with fewer resources first."

Compared to other companies that performed well in revenue at the time of layoffs (like Block), Coinbase's situation seems more easily aligned with this logic.

Coinbase's Real Revenue Pressures

The nature of Coinbase's core business dictates that its revenue is highly correlated with the cyclical fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market.

As shown in the chart above, since the crypto market peaked and began a bearish trend around Q2 2025, Coinbase's revenue and net profit data have shown a clear shift — revenue growth has slowed or even declined; net profit has compressed significantly for three consecutive quarters, with Q4 2025 recording a massive loss of $670 million (mainly due to crypto asset impairment).

As of now, while Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $80,000 level, there are no signs of a near-term cyclical rotation in the market. Against this backdrop, Coinbase has ample and direct motivation to "reduce costs and increase efficiency."

According to Dragonfly investor Omar Kanji's estimates, after the 14% workforce reduction, Coinbase is expected to save $225 million in annual salary expenses. This will undoubtedly significantly alleviate Coinbase's current revenue pressures.

See You at the Friday Earnings Report

As of 23:20 Beijing time on May 5, COIN stock was trading at $198.98, down 1.98% for the day. The market seems unenthusiastic about this layoff announcement.

After the US stock market closes on May 7 local time (May 8 Beijing time), Coinbase will officially release its Q1 2026 financial results, followed by a video webcast to discuss the performance at 5:30 PM ET on May 8. However, given the state of the crypto market in Q1, it's difficult to be optimistic about this earnings report.

Coinbase's actual current revenue situation will be revealed in just a few days with the truest answers.