BTC’s Three Post-Market Scenarios and a Clash of Two Forces | Expert Analysis

The market never lies; it only remains silent.

As prices fluctuate around a critical range, both bulls and bears await a definitive answer.

Over the past week, Bitcoin experienced the anticipated wide-ranging consolidation within the core area of $79,500 to $80,600, validating the effectiveness of our previous technical analysis. However, validation is merely the starting point; the real game begins this week.

BTC's daily adjustment structure is currently at a crossroads of three potential paths: Is it the start of a new upward wave or a consolidation relay within a larger-scale correction? Wave analysis can provide a framework, but the market ultimately votes with price. As for HYPE, its seven-segment structure is clearly traceable. Whether the $45.76 level is broken will be the most critical variable to watch this week.

This week's article will continue to analyze from a multi-timeframe perspective, clarifying structures, judging directions, and formulating plans. The strategy is set; maintain your own rhythm.

Core Views Summary for This Week's Trading:

• BTC Multi-timeframe structure analysis (Details in Part One)

• BTC this week's price forecast and medium/short-term trading strategy (Details in Part Two)

• HYPE Daily timeframe structure analysis (Details in Part Three)

• HYPE this week's price forecast and short-term trading strategy (Details in Part Four)

Market Validation of Last Week's Strategy and Core Views:

• BTC Price Forecast Validation: In last week's article, we pointed out the need to focus on the battle between bulls and bears for the core $79,500 to $80,600 area, predicting a high probability of wide-ranging consolidation. The current market movement broadly validates our previous assessment.

1. Bitcoin Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis

1.1 BTC Daily Timeframe Structure Analysis: (Three wave count scenarios for BTC's subsequent movement)

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

As shown in Figure 1, since reaching the high of $126,200 in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered an adjustment cycle lasting approximately 7 months (216 days). There is significant divergence in the market's view on the subsequent path. Bears argue the downtrend hasn't ended; after the recent rebound concludes, prices will still correct and break below the $60,000 low. Bulls, conversely, believe the correction starting from $126,200 ended at $60,000, where the trend reversed, and the rebound since February marks the start of a new uptrend. Next, based on Elliott Wave rules, we will analyze this daily adjustment structure and propose three technical scenarios for your reference.

① Scenario 1: Correction Complete, New Upward Wave Started (Bullish View)

This view posits that the daily-level correction from the previous high of $126,200 completed an A-B-C three-wave structure, with wave C ending at $60,000. Price is currently in the early stages of a large Wave I (an impulsive upward wave).

•  Wave A (Decline): $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $80,600 (2025-11-21), lasting 46 days, max drawdown ~36%.

•  Wave B (Rebound): $80,600 (2025-11-21) to $97,924 (2026-01-14), lasting 54 days, max gain ~21.5%.

•  Wave C (Decline): $97,924 (2026-01-14) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting 23 days, max drawdown ~38.7%.

•  Large Wave I (Upward Impulse): $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, running for 94 days, max gain ~38.1%, still in progress.

•  Potential Large Wave II (Corrective Wave): The corrective wave expected after Large Wave I ends; its low will not breach $60,000.

② Scenario 2: Complex Five-Wave Correction, Currently in Wave D Rebound (Bearish View 1)

This view posits that the daily-level correction from the high of $126,200 might form an A-B-C-D-E five-wave structure. Price is currently in Wave D rebound.

•  Wave A (Decline): $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $80,600 (2025-11-21), lasting 46 days, max drawdown ~36%.

•  Wave B (Rebound): $80,600 (2025-11-21) to $97,924 (2026-01-14), lasting 54 days, max gain ~21.5%.

•  Wave C (Decline): $97,924 (2026-01-14) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting 23 days, max drawdown ~38.7%.

•  Wave D (Rebound): $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, running for 94 days, max gain ~38.1%, still in progress.

•  Potential Wave E (Decline): The corrective wave expected after Wave D rebound ends; its low could breach $60,000.

③ Scenario 3: Larger Degree (e.g., Weekly) Correction Structure, Currently in Wave B Rebound (Bearish View 2)

This view posits that the correction from the $126,200 high represents a larger-degree A-B-C three-wave structure. Price is currently in Wave B rebound.

•  Wave A (Decline): $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting 112 days, max drawdown ~52.5%.

•  Wave B (Rebound): $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, lasting 94 days, max gain ~38.1%, still in progress.

•  Potential Wave C (Decline): The corrective wave expected after Wave B rebound ends; its low could breach $60,000.

④ Summary:

• From the perspective of time rules and form harmony within Elliott Wave theory, in Scenario 2, Wave B and Wave D belong to the same degree of rebound. However, the current Wave D rebound period (94 days) has significantly exceeded Wave B's rebound period (54 days). This excessive extension in time disrupts wave structure proportionality, thus significantly reducing the probability of this scenario.

• Based on this analysis, excluding Scenario 2, the probability of the market choosing Scenario 1 (Bullish) and Scenario 3 (Bearish) increases correspondingly. Determining which scenario is more probable involves a comprehensive judgment across more dimensions, which we will delve into in the next weekly review.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Timeframe Structure: (Using 4-hour chart as analysis cycle)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 2

As shown in Figure 2, the price is currently above the consolidation zone C, running in segment 28-29.

• If the price effectively holds above the support of zone C's upper boundary (~$78,500), the high-range wide consolidation pattern continues.

• If the price effectively breaks below the support of zone C's lower boundary (~$75,000), a daily-level decline might commence.

2. Bitcoin Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

2.1 BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View: The key this week is observing the battle outcome between bulls and bears around the upper and lower boundaries of consolidation zone C. Gains or losses in this area serve as crucial signals to determine whether the price can sustain the rebound or turn downward.

2.2 Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $83,500 ~ $84,500 area (Previous dense trading zone for bulls and bears)

    • Second Resistance Zone: $89,000 ~ $90,500 area (Previous consolidation platform)

2.3 Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Zone: $78,500 ~ $79,500 area (Near the upper boundary of the consolidation zone)

    • Second Support Zone: $73,500 ~ $75,000 area (Important previous support)

    • Third Support Zone: $69,500 ~ $70,500 area (Important previous support)

2.4 This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding unexpected news impacts)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position monitoring model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, based on trading rules, the medium-term direction is not yet clear. Maintain a cash position for the medium-term this week, patiently await a clear direction before entering, and avoid chasing pumps and selling dumps.

② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-losses. Based on support and resistance levels, seek **"spread trading"** opportunities (using 30-min / 60-min chart as operation cycle).

③ To dynamically respond to complex market evolutions in short-term trading, we pre-formulate two specific operation plans: **Plan A/B**.

 • Plan A: Effectively Hold Support, Follow Trend by Going Long on Dips.

    • Entry: When the price effectively stabilizes above the $78,500 ~ $79,500 area, confirmed by quantitative model bottom signals, establish long positions ≤20% of capital.

    • Risk Mgmt: Initial stop-loss set below $78,500.

    • Exit: When the rebound reaches key resistance areas, confirmed by model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Effectively Break Support, Go Short on Rallies.

    • Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the $73,500 ~ $75,000 area support, confirmed by quantitative model top signals, establish short positions ≤30% of capital.

    • Risk Mgmt: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.

    • Exit: When the decline reaches key support areas, confirmed by model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

3. HYPE Daily Timeframe Structure Analysis:

HYPE Daily K-line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, the uptrend of HYPE from the January 21st low of $20.46 can be divided into seven segments on the daily chart: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7. The first five segments saw price making higher highs, forming an ascending consolidation structure. In the last two segments, since endpoint 7 ($44.79) was lower than endpoint 5 ($45.76), it is currently regarded as a corrective structure.

2. Figure 4 shows that segments 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 overlap with each other, jointly constructing an "upward consolidation zone".

 4. HYPE Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week

4.1 HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

Core Views for HYPE this week:

• Focus on whether the price can break above the previous high of $45.76. If it does, the current movement remains part of the daily-level uptrend structure.

• Monitor the battle between bulls and bears around the upper and lower boundaries of the consolidation zone.

4.2 HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week:

• This week's short-term strategy will revolve around the gains and losses of two key levels: the zone's upper boundary ($38.41) and lower boundary ($34.44).

• Long Strategy: If the price pulls back to near $38.41, finds support, and shows stabilization signals, confirmed by bottom signals from the two major models, consider a small long position (must be controlled under 30% of capital) with strict stop-loss discipline.

• Short Strategy: If the price effectively breaks below support near $34.44, confirmed by top signals from the two major models, consider a small short position (must be controlled under 30% of capital) with strict stop-loss discipline.

5. Special Reminder:

 1. On Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.

 2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move stop-loss to entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.

 3. When Profit Reaches 2%: Move stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

 4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in gains.

The financial market changes rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. The views, analytical models, and operational strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists; invest with caution. Do not base decisions solely on this content.