With only a 50% probability of passing this year, can the CLARITY Act succeed before the midterm elections?
2026-04-23 08:58
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The window is limited, with numerous unresolved issues that urgently need addressing.
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- Core Thesis: The CLARITY Act, as a crucial crypto market structure legislation in the U.S., currently faces key obstacles in the Senate, including stablecoin rewards, DeFi provisions, and intra-party coordination. If it fails to pass before the 2026 midterm elections, it could be delayed until after 2030. The current probability of passage stands at approximately 50%.
- Key Elements:
- The bill must navigate a five-step process: Senate Banking Committee review, a full Senate vote requiring 60 votes, bicameral conference reconciliation, and presidential signature. However, it faces competition for time from debates on Iran's military actions and funding gridlock.
- Major points of contention include the stablecoin yield provision (a White House report shows a comprehensive ban would only affect 0.02% of loans), the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) exemption for software developers, an ethics amendment, and the issue of SEC exemption authority.
- Senator Lummis warns that if the bill does not pass this year, comprehensive legislation could be delayed until 2030. The current bipartisan coalition relies on specific political conditions that may dissolve later.
- Galaxy estimates the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is around 50%, a view mirrored by Polymarket predictions. Any delay after mid-May would significantly reduce the chances of success.
- Upcoming key milestones include Tillis releasing the revised text on stablecoin yields, Scott announcing the review date, and the committee voting results. Bipartisan support levels will influence the difficulty of securing the subsequent 60-vote threshold.
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