ICE ผู้ให้บริการหลักของ NYSE เปิดตัวเครื่องมือใหม่ ฟิวเจอร์สดัชนีและเครื่องมือทำนายอารมณ์ตลาดพร้อมกัน

Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Yesterday, following the major news in January about "planning to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading", the ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company behind the New York Stock Exchange, released two more "big moves" in succession. First, it launched seven CoinDesk Index cryptocurrency futures contracts, and also plans to launch a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract based on the CoinDesk Overnight Rate (pending approval). Second, it launched the Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with market signals such as prediction market data and analysis. A series of actions indicate that as the "parent" behind the NYSE, one of the largest stock exchanges in the US, the ICE Group is building its own "new nine-child ecosystem."

At a time when traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets are deeply coupled, the ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner to a trendsetter.

ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Providing More Choices for the Securities Market

In a previous article, "NYSE Plans to Open 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, 'Competitors' Are Stunned", we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to consolidate liquidity from both TradFi and DeFi markets, and also listed the pros and cons of market views at that time for analysis.

In less than a month, the ICE Group, the parent company behind the NYSE, is no longer silent. Instead, it has stepped directly from behind the scenes to the forefront, launching seven CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that better align with crypto-native metrics. These include: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures. The related contracts are denominated in USD and settled in cash.

It is worth mentioning here that CoinDesk Index-related crypto futures contracts have the following advantages:

• 1. Historical - CoinDesk Index metrics have been operating since 2014. Its flagship indices, such as the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX), have long been regarded as one of the industry's foundational benchmarks. Products like BlackRock's BTC ETF also use it as one of their reference indicators. Currently, over $40 billion in assets (such as ETFs, funds) are linked to this index.
• 2. Broad Coverage - The CoinDesk 20 Index covers about 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using a market-cap-weighted + capped design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional-grade investment standards. The total market cap of related products exceeds $16 billion. The CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest components by market cap within the CoinDesk 20 Index, balancing index equilibrium while accounting for the market position of high-market-cap cryptocurrencies.
• 3. Pioneering - The ICE Group previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on futures products in Singapore. The transparency and data quality of CoinDesk Indices meet regulatory compliance needs, helping the ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the entry barrier for investment institutions.

Thus, ICE has introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market via CoinDesk indices, providing professional institutional investors with more trading choices. It also indirectly introduces more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market. With seven USD-denominated, cash-settled CoinDesk Index cryptocurrency futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify asset portfolio allocations.

The subsequent product that the ICE Group plans to promote, the "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk Overnight Rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.

It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move marks the first time a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi interest rates. This also signifies that the overnight borrowing annualized rates of on-chain lending protocols have gained recognition from traditional financial markets, facilitating investors in hedging USDC borrowing costs or locking in yields. Regardless of the price performance after the product launch, this is a historic step. At a time when the crypto market is in a downward cycle, it is akin to injecting a fresh wave of blood.

If we compare the traditional financial market to a food market, the launch of CoinDesk Index cryptocurrency futures contracts is like the ICE Group's "vegetable stall" offering customers more "dishes." The launch of the Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool is similar to the ICE Group providing more "price influence indicators" to "shoppers" (Odaily Note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) to help them make effective decisions on "which vegetables to buy."

ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool: An "Information Gold Shovel" for Investors

Last September, the ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. At that time, the prediction market was on the eve of a massive trading volume explosion, with industry monthly trading volume still hovering around $5 billion. However, with the overall downturn in the crypto market, the successive emergence of prediction events, and strong enthusiasm from capital institutions, starting from Q4 last year, the trading volume of the entire prediction market sector entered a blowout period. Monthly trading volumes broke new highs one after another, with November's trading volume quickly exceeding $13 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 4 times compared to the 2024 US presidential election year.

Since then, Polymarket, touted as "the world's largest prediction market platform," has seen a new wave of growth in its valuation, platform trading volume, and user numbers. Compared to traditional channels like polls and data research institutions, prediction markets offer more intuitive and collective wisdom-based information indicators, garnering increasing attention.

To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket are the best "risk signal indicators," and the ICE Group recognized its value in decision-making assistance.

As Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said: "Prediction markets reflect near-real-time collective expectations of market-driving events and have become a reliable information input beyond traditional data sources."

Similarly, let's give two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this event.

1. Betting events on Polymarket like "the timing and method of a US attack on Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders, hedge funds, etc. If the likelihood of such an event suddenly increases and trading volume surges rapidly, it often indicates regional tensions, and prices of energy sources like oil are likely to soar. Institutional investors can use this to build positions early for profit, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risky assets.

2. Various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to judge the production, price trends of bulk agricultural products like corn and soybeans, and the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on prediction market platforms can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually impact supply chains/prices, avoiding asset damage from concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.

In other words, various betting events in prediction markets can identify abnormal factors one step ahead, thereby concretizing the potential impact on related assets.

It is worth mentioning that Polymarket's related data is not the only source the ICE Group provides to institutional investors; previous sources also included Reddit and Dow Jones data. Cross-verification from multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of the ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.

With this "truth machine" powered by real money, the ICE Group has essentially opened a "window of probability" for institutional investors to "see the future in advance."

Summary: The ICE Group is Building Its Own "Crypto Territory"

Last September, the US SEC's Crypto Special Working Group held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group regarding cryptocurrency regulatory matters, covering crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, the ICE Group had successively reached cooperation agreements with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration and on-chain data for forex and precious metals.

Based on available information, in the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, the ICE Group is striding into the "era of crypto finance," assembling its own "crypto territory" through investments, partnerships, and expanding trading instruments.