Yesterday (22 FEB), the US economic data performed strongly, and Federal Reserve officials continued to pour cold water on expectations of a recent rate cut: Initial jobless claims for the week recorded 201,000, lower than the expected 218,000. The Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.5, higher than the expected 50.5. Philadelphia Fed President Hauck issued a warning that the biggest risk is an early rate cut, and there is no urgency for a rate cut. Fed's Jefferson also expressed concerns about overly loose policies that may lead to inflation reversal or stagnation, and believes that a rate cut later this year may be appropriate. As a result, US bond yields have gradually risen, with the two-year/ten-year now at 4.739%/4.343%. The three major US stock indices rose due to Nvidia's better-than-expected financial report, with the Dow Jones/S&P/Nasdaq up 1.18%/2.11%/2.96%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Binance & TradingView, ETH once again retraces from 3000 points downward

In terms of cryptocurrencies, today marks the expiry date for February options/futures, releasing a large amount of locked-up margin from the recent upward trend. BTC/ETH prices saw a slight correction, closing at 51000 (-1.6%) and 2933 (-1.8%), respectively.

Regarding options, the implied volatility curve sharply declined, while the Vol Premium of ETH relative to BTC remained unchanged. In terms of trading, BTC transactions were concentrated on 1 MAR/29 MAR, with a significant increase in trading volume for put options. This was mainly composed of the 1 MAR 50000/49000 Long Put Spread and two sets of disc put spread strategies for 29 MAR. The profit and loss changes of these two strategies are shown in the attached image at the end of the article. Most ETH transactions also occurred in March, with the most notable net inflows being for buying calls at 3100/3200 and buying puts at 3000.

Source: Deribit (as of 23 FEB 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus, significant decline in implied volatility

Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading concentrated in 1 MAR/29 MAR in the past day

Source: SignalPlus, Short 48000/43000/38000 PutFly P&L changes; Long 54000/50000/46000 PutFly P&L changes

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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