MSX US Stock Daily Observation: Walmart FY2027 Q2 Earnings: Revenue and Profit Both Beat Expectations, US Same-Store Sales Growth Hits Six-Year Low
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Today's Observation
Walmart's quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat expectations, but US same-store sales growth fell to its lowest level in more than six years, with pharmacy price deflation being the main drag. The company also raised its full-year sales and profit guidance, though the upper end of the revised EPS guidance still fell short of market consensus estimates. Signals of slowing growth momentum overshadowed the quarter's earnings beat.
Data in a Minute
FY2027 Q2 total revenue of $187.90 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year, beating the market consensus of $186.77 billion.
Adjusted EPS of $0.81, up 19% year-over-year, beating the consensus of $0.74; however, GAAP net income attributable to the company was $6.37 billion, down 9% year-over-year — the two metrics moved in opposite directions.
US same-store sales growth was only 2.6%, below the market consensus of 3.5% and the lowest in more than six years; the company noted pharmacy price deflation contributed a drag of approximately 125 basis points.
By segment, Walmart US net sales were $125.20 billion, up 3.5% year-over-year; International sales were $35.20 billion, up 13%; and Sam's Club (US) sales were $25.70 billion, up 8.8%, with same-store sales (ex-fuel) up 4.4%.
High-margin businesses maintained strong growth: global e-commerce rose 23% year-over-year (US +24%), global advertising grew 38% (Walmart Connect up 43%), and US third-party marketplace sales increased 52% year-over-year.
Adjusted operating income was $9.2 billion, up 17.4% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, outpacing revenue growth.
Full-year guidance was raised across the board: net sales growth guidance was lifted from 3.5%-4.5% to 4.0%-5.0%, adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $2.80-$2.87 (from $2.75-$2.85), and adjusted operating income growth guidance is now 7.0%-8.5%.
However, the upper end of the revised EPS guidance at $2.87 still falls short of the market consensus of $2.90. The company said it has begun receiving tariff refunds this quarter and has committed to using those funds to lower product prices.
MSX View
The paradox in this earnings report is that nearly every metric for the quarter came in better than expected — the issues lie in the structure and the forward outlook. Revenue, adjusted earnings, and operating efficiency are all improving: adjusted operating income growth is outpacing revenue growth, and high-margin businesses like advertising, third-party marketplace, and e-commerce are all growing at double-digit rates or higher, indicating that Walmart's earnings quality is improving.
The decline in US same-store sales growth to 2.6% — a six-year low — pulls the narrative back to the most fundamental question: as the most broadly reaching US retailer, its same-store data itself serves as a thermometer for consumer demand. Pharmacy price deflation explains roughly 125 basis points of the drag, while the remainder points to actual shifts in consumer behavior. Transaction counts remain stable but average basket size is declining, which means customers are still coming — they're just spending more carefully.
The fact that full-year guidance was raised across the board yet still fell short of expectations precisely indicates that the market's growth expectations for this company have already run ahead of the company's own assessment. The key going forward is whether the expansion pace of high-margin non-retail businesses can sustain fast enough to offset the slowdown in core retail growth.
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Risk Disclaimer: Macroeconomic conditions and US stock market volatility are significant. This content is provided for academic and research observation purposes by the MSX Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.
