美股芯片半导体跌跌不休，到底要回调到什么时候？

The recent sell-off in the US stock market's memory chip sector can no longer be described simply as a "pullback." Last night, former chip star stocks like SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk continued their collective decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen sharply from its high of over 14,600 points a month ago to its current level of over 10,400 points.

Now, all investors are asking the same question: How much further will memory chips fall? Is the promised "All in AI" narrative still viable or not?

BIT Brokerage will provide an in-depth analysis to answer this biggest market doubt.

1. The Technical Bear Market Is Confirmed

A technical bear market is a concept defined purely by price decline: when an index or asset falls 20% or more from a recent significant high, it is said to enter a technical bear market. It does not involve any fundamental judgment, only price.

Applying this to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), we can calculate the following figures:

• On June 22, the SOX hit an all-time closing high of 14,634.72 points.
• The bear market threshold is: 14,634.72 × 80% = 11,707.78 points.
• On July 17, the SOX closed at 11,673.89 points, officially breaking below the threshold and confirming entry into a technical bear market. Since then, the index has continued to decline, currently touching 10,447.49 points, moving further away from the threshold line.

What does this figure mean? It means that the "All in AI, blindly buy semiconductors" narrative has, at least in the short term, become ineffective. The market is no longer following the one-sided logic of "buy the dip." Instead, it has entered a phase requiring a reassessment of risks.

2. A Bear Market Tells You How Much It Has Fallen, But Not How Long It Will Last

First, it's crucial to clarify one point: a technical bear market is a "statement of fact," not a "prediction tool."

It tells you the index has fallen by more than 20%, but it cannot answer "Will it continue to fall, and where is the bottom?" Historically, some technical bear markets have been the starting point for V-shaped reversals, while others have been the prelude to deep bear markets. What makes the difference? The core issue is whether the source of the selling pressure has been cleared out.

Regarding the source of selling pressure in this round for memory chips, the market has almost reached a consensus – the Korean stock market is undergoing a violent deleveraging process, and the memory sector is unlikely to stabilize until this deleveraging is complete.

Since the beginning of the year, Korean retail investors used margin financing and single-stock leveraged ETFs to aggressively bet on leading stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix. The balance of credit financing surged from 27.4 trillion KRW in early January to a peak of 38.6 trillion KRW on June 24.

However, the problem with leveraged ETFs lies in their mechanism: mandatory daily rebalancing – "increase positions when the price rises, decrease when it falls." They act as amplifiers during an uptrend but turn into meat grinders when the trend reverses. A decline triggers margin calls, failure to meet margin calls leads to forced liquidations, and the selling pressure from liquidations causes further declines. This is a classic negative feedback spiral. Once initiated, it proceeds regardless of human will.

3. When Will Deleveraging End? Watch for These Three Signals

This is the truly core question. Investors can monitor the following three directly observable indicators:

• Signal 1: Credit Financing Balance. It fell from a peak of 38.6 trillion KRW (June 24) to 32.7 trillion KRW (July 23), but the decline is far from sufficient. We need to see this indicator stop declining and clearly stabilize before we can say the purge of margin positions is nearing its end.
• Signal 2: Forced Liquidation Amount. It surged from approximately 550.8 billion KRW in March to 1.12 trillion KRW in June, then dropped to 473.6 billion KRW in the first half of July. This is the most direct measure of "blood loss" from deleveraging. It needs to consistently fall back to normal levels, say below several hundred billion KRW per month, before we can consider the bleeding stopped.
• Signal 3: Volatility Index VKOSPI. This is the "fear index" for the Korean stock market, calculated from option prices on the KOSPI 200 index, measuring the market's expectation of sharp volatility over the next 30 days. During this bout of panic, it once soared to 5 times the VIX. It is currently hovering at a high level of 85.66. Only when it falls back to the normal range can we say the "panic premium" in market pricing has been squeezed out.

4. Final Conclusion: The Process Isn't Over, But Mid-to-Late Stage Characteristics Are Visible

Based on the latest market conditions, this wave of deleveraging is clearly not over yet.

The KOSPI has triggered circuit breakers 9 times this year, with wild swings between surges and plunges – this is precisely a typical characteristic of the mid-to-late stage of deleveraging: the peak of panic selling has passed, selling pressure is starting to weaken, but the market structure is not yet solid, making it prone to violent swings on any hint of trouble.

Let's summarize the above points:

First, the SOX has broken below the 11,707.78-point threshold, confirming a technical bear market and the end of the mindless "All in AI" narrative phase.

Second, the underlying driver of this decline is the forced liquidation of leveraged funds in Korea. The bottom depends not on what price level is reached, but on where the deleveraging process ends.

Third, monitor the progress of deleveraging using three signals: stabilization of the credit financing balance, return of forced liquidation amounts to normal levels, and a decline of VKOSPI back to the normal range. Based on the frequency of circuit breakers and liquidation data, we are currently in the mid-to-late stage of deleveraging – the most panic-stricken phase may have passed, but the "unstable structure" means that buying the dip now is still a left-side trading strategy.

For market participants, what is truly useful at this stage is not predicting the bottom price, but establishing a discipline of "signal confirmation": control positions and leverage before signals stabilize; only discuss deployment after signals are confirmed.

In response to the complex market environment, BIT Brokerage's margin trading and options services offer traders multi-dimensional risk management and capital efficiency enhancement paths:

Margin Trading: Using margin buying allows investors to improve capital utilization during significant market downturns to participate in structural rebounds. Using margin short selling allows investors to establish short positions in targets directly impacted by price wars and under pressure in fundamentals, hedging the downside risk of their holdings.

Options: Traders can build a downside protection net for their overall portfolio by buying put options (Long Put), guarding against unexpected macro negative news and liquidity shocks. They can also participate in the elastic returns of high-beta assets with a limited and fixed cost by buying call options (Long Call).

Risk Warning: Historical data does not represent future performance. This article is solely a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.