币股风向标丨Strategy 현금储备 32.3억 달러로 증가, BTC 추가 매수 중단; Vanguard 등 자산운용사 Strategy 주식 추가 매수 (7월 21일)
- 핵심 관점: 현재 글로벌 자본 시장은 높은 변동성과 위험 선호도 하락에 직면해 있으며, AI 거품 우려로 인해 미 증시 공매도 포지션이 사상 최고치를 기록하고, 암호화폐 관련주는 규제 공백 속에서 추가 성장 동력이 부족하며, 동시에 비트코인 재무 보유 기업들의 전체적인 매수 속도가 현저히 둔화되고 있습니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 미 증시 공매도 포지션 사상 최고치: S&P 500 공매도 비율 3.79%, Russell 3000 6.3%로 2010년 이후 최고치를 기록하며, 이는 AI 기반 기술주의 지속 가능성과 시장 고평가에 대한 투자자들의 의구심을 반영합니다.
- 연준 금리 인상 기대감 고조: 연준 관계자들이 매파적 신호를 보내면서 시장의 금리 인상 기대감이 강화되었고, 필라델피아 반도체 지수가 사상 최고치 대비 20% 이상 하락하며 기술주가 시장을 주도하여 하락, 자금 스타일 전환이 뚜렷해졌습니다.
- 암호화폐 관련주 거품 제거: 시장 내 활동적인 주요 플레이어 중 지속적인 자금 조달 능력이나 자체 생존 능력을 갖춘 곳은 소수에 불과하며, 단기간 내 규제 정책 호재가 부재하므로 단기 반등 베팅만 권장합니다.
- 상장사 BTC 매수 급감: 글로벌 상장사는 지난주 순매수 133만 달러 BTC에 그쳐 전주 대비 98.4% 감소했으며, Strategy는 BTC를 매수하지 않고 현금 보유액을 32.3억 달러로 늘리며 전체 매수 동력이 약화되었습니다.
- ETH 재무 보유 기업 BitMine 지속적 매수: BitMINE ETH 보유량이 578만 개(유통량의 4.8%)로 증가했으며, 암호화폐 및 현금 가치는 115억 달러에 달합니다. 지난주 550만 주를 자사주 매입하며 이더리움에 대한 장기적 신뢰를 보여줍니다.
- 일부 기관, Strategy 주식 역발상 매수: Vanguard 그룹의 VOE 펀드, Swedbank AB 및 Capital Group의 ETF가 MSTR 주식을 추가 매수했습니다. 시장을 약세로 보면서도 비트코인 재무 전략은 여전히 긍정적으로 평가합니다.
- 알트코인 재무 성과 부진: HypeStrat은 이번 주 재무 조정을 하지 않았으며, mNAV는 장기 저점인 0.87배, 세후 기준 0.80배로 하락하며 DAT 모델 관련 자산이 압박을 받고 있음을 보여줍니다.
Editor's Note: In last week's "Crypto-Stock Indicator" article, we provided a brief commentary on the South Korean stock market, US stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrency-related stocks.
Currently, due to factors such as interest rate hikes, high leverage, and liquidity tightening, the South Korean stock market remains in a period of high volatility risk. It may enter what analysts previously termed "sideways decline" to squeeze out bubbles in the short term. The US stock market is still highly dependent on extreme geopolitical factors like the US-Iran situation and Trump's statements. CXMT's successful IPO did not act as a catalyst for A-shares to forge an independent trend, and its pre-market price has also seen a degree of decline, with the memory sector continuing to face pressure. In summary, the stock market is in a phase of aggressive deleveraging; do not increase loan or other financing leverage ratios to participate in capital securities market investments.
Regarding crypto concept stocks, the DAT model, after a year of development, has largely completed its bubble cleansing. Among the still-active top players in the market, only a few possess sustained fundraising capabilities or self-sustaining profitability. Without positive regulatory policy stimuli, it's difficult to see a turnaround in the short term. Among US compliant stocks like Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, only Robinhood has an incremental market. The former two have extremely limited self-sustaining ability and growth space, suggesting cautious investment, strict position control, and limiting activity to short-term rebound speculation.
For more information on the crypto-stock market, please visit MSX.COM. (Odaily Note: This content does not constitute investment advice and is for learning and exchange purposes only.)
US Stocks Remain the Benchmark for Global Capital Markets: AI Bubble Triggers Bearish Bets, Rate Hike Expectations Rekindled
AI Bubble Concerns Intensify, Bearish Bets on US Stocks Hit Highest Since 2010
As concerns over risks associated with artificial intelligence grow, bearish bets on the US stock market are climbing to historic highs, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally.
Data shows that short interest in S&P 500 index constituents as a percentage of free float has approached 3.79%, the highest level since S3 Partners began tracking in 2010. Meanwhile, the short ratio for Russell 3000 index constituents recently rose to 6.3%, also a record. Previously, since the end of March, the S&P 500 index has accumulated gains of about 18%, driving the market higher. However, some investors are beginning to worry about the sustainability of the AI-driven tech stock rally and the risk of a correction in a high-valuation environment.
Analysts point out that the significant increase in short positions reflects investor concerns about AI bubble risks, earnings expectations, and market concentration, and could also be a significant signal of increased market volatility. However, historical data shows that high short interest does not necessarily mean an imminent market decline. If corporate earnings continue to improve or AI investments yield better-than-expected returns, short covering could conversely drive the stock market higher.
Analysis: Rate Hike Expectations Combine with Capital Rotation, Tech Leaders Drag Down Broader US Market
Last Friday, the three major US stock indices opened lower, with tech stocks falling across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped over 20% from its historical closing high, potentially confirming an entry into a bear market. SK Hynix's ADR fell below its IPO price of $149 for the first time, and SpaceX's stock price dropped 38% from its peak, erasing about $1 trillion in market value. AMD fell over 7%, Intel dropped over 6%, and TSMC fell over 5%. Some analysts suggest that the ongoing correction in chip stocks has moved beyond fundamentals and is more influenced by capital style rotation and shifts in market preference.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's dissatisfaction with inflation during hearings has increased market expectations for rate hikes. "Hawkish" signals from other Fed officials have also heightened market tension. Among them, US' Logan explicitly called for a rate hike; US' Schmid warned that the risk of further inflation acceleration in the coming months remains. On the geopolitical front, the outlook for the US-Iran war remains uncertain, dampening market risk appetite.
Weekly Update on Listed Crypto and Stock Companies
Representative Companies Holding BTC Treasury
According to SoSoValue data, as of 8:00 AM EST on July 20, 2026, the total net weekly purchase of Bitcoin by global listed companies (excluding mining companies) last week was $1.33 million, a decrease of 98.4% compared to the previous week.
According to official documents, Strategy did not purchase any Bitcoin last week. Strategy's USD reserves increased by approximately $225 million to about $3.23 billion.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet did not purchase Bitcoin last week.
Additionally, one other company purchased Bitcoin last week. Asset management firm Strive announced on July 20 that it spent $1.15 million to purchase 21 Bitcoins at a price of $63,221, bringing its total holdings to approximately 19,921 Bitcoins.
Capital holding company ORANGE JUICE announced the completion of a $40 million fundraising round, with the proceeds intended for purchasing Bitcoin.
As of press time, the global listed companies (excluding mining companies) included in the statistics hold a total of 1,139,656 Bitcoins, an increase of 0.002% from last week, with a current market value of approximately $73.76 billion, representing 5.7% of Bitcoin's circulating market cap.
Expanding Investor Reach, Capital B Announces 10:1 Reverse Stock Split
BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that Bitcoin treasury company Capital B ALCPB announced a 10-for-1 reverse stock split, effective September 8, to support institutional development and open its stock to a broader investor base.
BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that listed company Bitcoin Japan Corporation 8105.T raised $60 million through convertible bonds and allocated $4.08 million for its first BTC purchase for its treasury.
Bitcoin treasury startup ORANGE JUICE announced on July 15, 2026, the completion of a $40 million funding round. Grupo Salinas founder and chairman Ricardo Salinas served as the anchor investor, with participation from Bitcoin investors such as Jeff Booth and Lyn Alden.
ORANGE JUICE plans to acquire small businesses with annual cash flows of $1 million to $10 million and use a portion of retained earnings for new acquisitions and purchasing Bitcoin. The company stated it will rely less on debt and equity issuance, primarily growing through operating cash flow.
Ruben Zweiban will serve as operating partner responsible for daily operations. He previously worked as an investment banker at BofA Securities, an equity research analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management, and served as Chief Investment Officer for a multi-billion dollar private multi-family office. The company also plans to seek a public listing in the future.
Multiple Institutions Increase Strategy Stock Holdings: Vanguard Group Funds, Swedbank AB, Capital Group's Growth ETF (CGGR)
Vanguard Group's Mid-Cap Value ETF VOE disclosed an increase of 83,093 shares in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), valued at $8.16 million; its total holdings now stand at 2.12 million shares, worth $209 million.
Swedbank AB, with $264 billion in assets under management, stated it has increased its holdings of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy stock by 8,278 shares, bringing its total position to 90,590 shares, worth $8.81 million.
Capital Group's Growth ETF (CGGR), managing $3.3 trillion in assets, disclosed an increase of 80,240 shares in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), valued at $7.78 million. It now holds a total of 1.66 million shares, worth $161.39 million. Capital Group is the world's largest active fund management company.
Representative Companies Holding ETH Treasury
Ethereum treasury company BitMine stated its ETH holdings have reached 5.78 million, representing approximately 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply, nearing its target of accumulating 5% of all ETH. The company added 7,430 ETH in the past week.
BitMine stated the value of its crypto assets, cash, and marketable securities is $11.5 billion, including 207 Bitcoins and $385 million in cash and securities. Approximately 4.9 million of its ETH are staked through validator networks and partners, accounting for about 85% of its treasury.
BitMine also repurchased 5.5 million shares last week under its previously authorized $4 billion buyback program. Earlier this month, BitMine stated that its institutional staking platform MAVAN generated $45.7 million in staking and validation revenue in the three months ending May 31, accounting for 98% of the company's total revenue.
Representative Companies Holding SOL Treasury
None.
Representative Companies Holding Altcoin Treasury
mNAV Drops to Long-Term Low, HypeStrat Does Not Adjust Company Treasury This Week
HyperliquidNews reported that DAT HypeStrat did not adjust its company treasury this week, neither purchasing Hyperliquid's native token nor PURR. Its mNAV has fallen to a long-term low, currently at 0.87x, and 0.80x after tax.
